2020 Confederate Federal Election (A New South)

The 2020 Confederate Federal Election was held on April 16th, 2020, to elect members to the House of Commons of the Confederate Republic. Eleven Federally recognized Parties ran in the election, as well as several non-recognized and independent candidates. Issues during the election included a recent Supreme Court decision which allowed Black citizens to run for Parliament, the COVID-19 pandemic, and what to do with the economic growth and budget surplus created by incumbent Conservative President Mike Huckabee.

The Conservative Party won 189 seats, forming a coalition with the Dixie First and Blue Dog Parties, led by Tate Reeves and Henry Cuellar, respectively. In total, the coalition controlled 265 seats. The Liberals, led by Hillary Clinton, won 172 seats, becoming the official opposition. The Socialists, Progressive Unionists, and Greens collaborated to form a secondary, left-wing opposition, collectively controlling 21 seats. The National Unity Party, which won 19 seats and was led by Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt, was sealed out of the Conservative coalition over their pro-union stance. The New Panthers, a new party led by Reverend Jesse Jackson, won 8 seats; however, the party was refused seating for months due to contention over its legality and positions of black separatism. The Libertarians, headed by political freshman Jo Jorgensen, won 11 seats. The Appalachian Party, led by Denver Riggleman, formed the smallest section of the House, winning 4 seats and refusing coalition offers.

The election was the first that a plurality of seats in Georgia and Texas were won by the Liberals since the party's founding. It is also the first time a third party won a plurality of seats in a state since 2008. Only one state - Oklahoma - gave a majority of their seats to one party (being the Conservatives), while Arkansas gave exactly half, also to the Conservatives.

Background
Mike Huckabee, who became leader of the Conservatives in 2016 and won that year's election, announced a planned resignation as leader of the Conservatives. Jeb Bush was elected as his successor in the 2020 Conservative Party leadership election. Huckabee's resignation as leader was set to take place one week before the end of his term as President; however, he would remain the president for the remainder of his term.

The New Panther Party, a minor party consisting mostly of black nationalists and separatists, faced several troubles in achieving ballot access and registry. A supreme court decision in 2018, NAACP v. Alabama, struck down bans on black citizens holding office. Despite this, some New Panther Party candidates were refused ballot access for a number of issues. Criminal charges were laid against candidates, mostly for incitement of insurrection, treason, incitement of racial riots, and public disorder. Party leader Jesse Jackson was almost refused his federal party seat due to a 1988 charge of incitement of racial rioting; a court eventually vacated the conviction, stating it had been politically motivated and falsified.

COVID-19 Pandemic
COVID-19 first entered the Confederate Republic on March 1, 2020, when a case was diagnosed in Hillsborough County, Florida, home to Tampa. The pandemic would proceed to spread with dangerous efficiency, leading to calls for government action. On March 8, 2020, President Mike Huckabee announced a temporary travel ban to and from China, France, Italy, and Japan, all countries with high case counts. Two days later, a closure of the border with the United States of America was announced. Huckabee was widely praised for his early and efficient response to the pandemic, increasing the Conservative popularity. However, many regional governors and legislators over-rode or ignored federal restrictions and guidances, leading to continued spread of the virus.

The Dixie First and National Unity parties, both previously relatively unknown and irrelevant, as well as the Libertarian Party, campaigned heavily on an end to COVID-19 travel restrictions and mask mandates. This is believed to have helped them immensely, especially as the closures became increasingly unpopular among conservative voters. Every other major party campaigned on some form of government response to COVID-19; Conservative leader Jeb Bush campaigned on a continuation and stronger enforcement of the policies instated under Huckabee, while the Liberals and the left-wing parties preferred more aggressive and strong-handed action to be taken.

NAACP v. Alabama
In 2018, the Supreme Court ruled that it was unconstitutional to deny Black candidates the ability to run for office, as it violated the constitution's representation clause, which deals with ensuring political representation of communities. The case was controversial, with the Conservatives, as well as the Dixie First, National Unity, and Appalachian parties campaigning for a reversal of the decision. The Liberals largely avoided campaigning on the issue, sensing that it would be unwise to take a position and risk alienating voters on either side of the issue. However, this indecision turned off some voters; in a poll by Atlanta-based firm Krinos, 45% of Liberal-to-Conservative and 36% of Liberal-to-Socialist voters said that inaction on v. Alabama was the cause of their vote switch.

Polling
Polls were conducted through the race to track support for each party. While seat predictions were made by some companies, this will focus instead on popular vote predictions.