2024 United States Presidential Election (Pax Americana)

The 2024 United States presidential election was the 60th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Incumbent President Joe Biden and his running mate, Incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, narrowly defeated the Republican ticket of Senator Ted Cruz and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to win a second term.

Biden faced no serious challenges to the Democratic nomination. The Republicans, meanwhile, experienced a highly competitive primary with Senator Ted Cruz ultimately emerging victorious against the widest field of Republican Presidential Nominees in the history of the party which included figures such as Former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tom Cotton, and Senator Tim Scott. Former President Donald Trump was considered to be the frontrunner early on but ultimately decided against a third presidential bid, claiming that running against would distract in his efforts to advocate for voting reforms around the nation.

During the general election campaign, Biden argued that his Build Back Better recovery plan was leading the United States in a positive economic direction. Cruz frequently criticized Biden's Administration as overreaching and authoritarian, particularly for its policies regarding COVID-19, and promised to limit the size of the federal government and take steps to curtail growing inflation. Growing civil unrest, mandatory COVID-19 Vaccinations in public schools, seasonal masking, and high gas prices were also major issues during the campaign.

The election was considered close throughout the campaign, with major polling aggregates showing Biden with only a minor lead over his Republican rival. Like 2020, the winner of the election was not decided on election night. The election came down to the state of Michigan. Cruz was initially ahead on election night however on November 6, AP called the state for Joe Biden after all mail-in and absentee ballots were counted.

Cruz refused to concede the election the following day, claiming irregularities with mail-in and absentee ballot counting in Washtenaw and Wayne Counties. Both counties had also undercounted their votes on election night, which also drew allegations of voter fraud from Cruz and other prominent Republican figures. After weeks of legal battles, Cruz officially conceded the race after Michigan certified its election results on December 9.

Background
Before the election, many believed that President Biden would choose not to seek a second term and instead allow Vice President Kamala Harris to assume the top of the ticket. However, to the shock of almost all political observers, Biden announced that he would seek re-election.

Former President Donald Trump was considered the front runner for the Republican nomination throughout most of Biden's first term. Trump had hinted at a third presidential bid but did not confirm or deny the prospect early on. With Trump topping early 2024 Republican Primary polls, the majority of speculated primary candidates did not seriously consider a bid for the nomination. One month after the 2022 Midterm elections, Trump announced that he would not seek the nomination. He claimed that running for a third presidential bid would distract in Save America's ongoing efforts to prevent voter fraud.

With inflation rising and the economy recovering slowly, the Republican party was confident in its ability to capture the White House. The party became more confident after it gained both the House and Senate in the Midterm Elections.

Democratic Party
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were renominated easily with only token opposition.

Republican Party
Ted Cruz became the presumptive nominee on June 10, 2024, when he secured enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the Republican National Convention. His nomination became official on July 25, 2024.

Economy
The economy was a major issue of the 2024 race. Inflation continued to rise throughout the election cycle, despite the Biden Administration's efforts. The Supply Chain Crisis, which began in 2021, had continued into its third year. While the crisis had lessened in severity, many industries were hit hard resulting in sluggish economic growth. President Biden claimed that his administration was doing everything in its power to curtail the effects of economic woes, touting his stimulus plan as a major reason why the economy was in a better position. Cruz claimed that Biden was to blame for the worsening economic conditions and promised to roll back regulations put in place during his administration that he claimed were hurting the economy.

COVID-19
The ongoing response to COVID-19 was a major issue in the 2024 Election. While the virus was not as widespread as in 2020, small spikes were frequent around the country, especially during the winter months. Many public schools adopted a policy of seasonal masking during the winter months to combat COVID-19 and the Flu. President Biden supported the policy of seasonal masking, claiming that it was effective in reducing spikes. Cruz opposed seasonal masking and promised to do everything in his power to prevent children from being forced to mask in the classroom.

Abortion
Due to the Supreme Court's ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health in June of 2022 which practically overturned Planned Parenthood v. Casey, stricter abortion restrictions were passed around the country. In states such as Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, abortion was outlawed after 15 weeks of pregnancy. The Biden Administration heavily criticized both the court's decision and stricter abortion laws. During the campaign, he promised to pass national legislation to enshrine Roe v. Wade into law to prevent future Supreme Court decisions from further restricting abortion. Ted Cruz praised the court's decision in Dobbs and promised to pass national legislation which would ban all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

Climate Change
Biden made fighting Climate Change a key part of his reelection agenda. While not supportive of the Green New Deal proposed by progressive members of the Democratic Party, Biden promised what he viewed as a more moderate package that would seek to increase funding for green energy initiatives and decrease carbon emissions. More progressive members of his party criticized Biden's proposal. Cruz rejected Biden's climate proposals and promised to pass legislation that would prevent the US from being a part of the Paris Climate Accords and any future international Climate Change agreements.

Close states
States where the margin of victory was under 1% (45 electoral votes; all won by Biden)
 * 1)  Michigan, 0.25% (16,2304 votes) – 15 electoral votes  (tipping-point state for Biden victory)
 * 2)  Arizona, 0.33% (10,986 votes) – 11 electoral votes 
 * 3)  Pennsylvania, 0.78% (26,897 votes) – 19 electoral votes  (tipping-point state for Cruz victory)

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%
 * 1)  New Hampshire, 1.04% (9,194 votes) – 4 electoral votes 
 * 2)  Nevada, 1.98% (29,957 votes) – 6 electoral votes 
 * 3)  Wisconsin, 1.99% (59,645 votes) – 10 electoral votes 
 * 4)  Georgia, 2.30% (99,974 votes) – 16 electoral votes 
 * 5)  North Carolina, 2.56% (100,714 votes) – 16 electoral votes 
 * 6)  New Mexico, 3.14% (59,127 votes) – 5 electoral votes 
 * 7)  Florida, 3.51% (391,820 votes) – 30 electoral votes 

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%
 * 1)  Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, 5.49% (19,073 votes) – 1 electoral vote 
 * 2)  Texas, 6.09% (692,235 votes) – 40 electoral votes 
 * 3)  Minnesota, 6.35% (219,626 votes) – 10 electoral votes 
 * 4)  Ohio, 7.45% (470,234 votes) – 17 electoral votes 
 * 5)  Iowa, 8.29% (139,521 votes) – 6 electoral votes 
 * 6)  Maine's 2nd Congressional District, 8.91% (35,278 votes) – 1 electoral vote 
 * 7)  Maine, 9.01% (73,991 votes) – 2 electoral votes