2026 United States Senate Elections (Pear's Future III)

The 2026 United States Senate elections occurred in the middle of Joe Biden's second term. The election, as a part of the 2026 midterms, were seen as a referendum on Biden and the ability for Republicans to capitalize off of President Biden's low approval ratings. Although, polls showed Biden with approval ratings under 40 percent due to the 2026 recession, many argued that Republican strength would be hindered due to a lack of strong leadership within the party. A similar conflict was seen in the 2022 midterms, where Republican infighting caused Republicans to do poorly despite President Biden's poor approval ratings. However, Republicans were able to nominate strong moderate candidates in most of their races, allowing them to expand their senate majority.

Republicans gained two seats in the Senate, one from Minnesota where they defeated incumbent senator Tina Smith, and another from Michigan where incumbent Senator Gary Peters did not run for re-election. Republicans were also able to hold their open seats in Kentucky, South Carolina, North Carolina and Idaho, while Democrats were able to hold their other open seats in Virginia and Rhode Island. as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel retired, Republicans nominated John Thune to be their party leader, who also became Majority Leader.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * John Hickenlooper, incumbent Senator from Colorado

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Convention
 * Eli Bremer, former chair of the El Paso Republican party
 * Greg McCollough, hedge fund manager
 * Jeff Lopez, former physician

Georgia
Incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff ran for re-election to a second term in office. Ossoff faced Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, a former Congresswoman from the 14th district and was her parties Vice Presidential nominee in 2024. Although Republicans spent nearly 50 million dollars trying to flip this seat, Ossoff won re-election by a larger margin than he did in 2021, despite Republicans holding onto many top races in Georgia like the governorship. Ossoff's victory showed Georgia's growing trend to the left, especially in the Atlanta Metro Area, where he did particularly well.

Democratic Primary
Campaign Like most incumbents, Ossoff was originally seen as the clear favourite for for his party's nomination. However, Ossoff faced a formidable challenger in the Democratic primary in state Representative George Douglas. Douglas was an establishment Democrat who was known in the State legislature as an effective political leader, and was able to pick up several endorsements from Democrats and fundraised a great deal. However, he lacked name recognition outside of his district. A poll taken 4 months before the primary showed Ossoff leading Douglas by 12 points, 45% to 33%. However, Ossoff did not receive a majority in that poll, which would lead to a runoff between Douglas and Ossoff. President Joe Biden and Georgia's other Senator Raphael Warnock both pressured Douglas to drop out as to not divide the party before the general election, but Douglas denied. In the May Democratic Primary, Ossoff won a slim 53% of the vote to Douglas' 37%, narrowly avoiding a runoff. Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Jon Ossoff, incumbent U.S. Senator
 * Mark Evans, former professional football player and candidate for Mayor of Atlanta in 2025
 * George Douglas, state Representative (2021-2027)

Republican
Campaign At first, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp was expected to run for the Senate, however he declined, but pledged to support a challenger to Marjorie Taylor Greene, who became the first person to formally announce their candidacy. Following Greene's candidacy, Kemp and many other Georgia Republicans attempted to recruit a strong challenger to beat Greene. This included attempting to change Kemp's mind, but it did not work. Ultimately, Republicans were able to recruit State Attorney General Chris Carr. 3 other Republicans, State Senator Jake King, businessman David Walsh and farmer Fred Case also ran, but they did not lead in any polls. Originally, polls showed Greene with a dominant lead against Carr and they other candidates. However, as the Greene campaign made several blunders, Carr narrowed the lead. In the May primary, Carr and Greene advanced to a runoff. In the August runoff, Greene narrowly defeated Carr. Nominee Eliminated in Runoff Eliminated in Primary
 * Marjorie Taylor Greene, former U.S. Representative from Georgia's 14th Congressional District (2021-2025) and Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2024
 * Chris Carr, Georgia Attorney General (2016-2023)
 * Jake King, State Senator
 * David Walsh, businessman
 * Fred Case, farmer

Iowa
Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst ran for re-election to a third term. Ernst faced Democrat Mike Franken, an admiral who was his party's nominee for the Senate in 2022. Ernst ran as a conservative hawk, while Franken ran as a moderate. Altough Ernst won, she severely underperformed polls, winning by less than 7 points, a similar margin from 2020.