2024 United Kingdom general election

The 2024 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 2 May 2024. It resulted in a narrow Conservative victory, having received a small majority in the House of Commons, albeit one greatly reduced from their 80-seat majority in the previous election. The results were largely viewed as somewhat of an upset, as a Labour victory or hung parliament was widely expected by the vast majority of pundits and pollsters. As such, this election marked the fifth consecutive election victory for the Conservative Party.

The Conservatives won 342 seats, down 23 from their result in 2019 of 365, while Labour made a net gain of 4 seats. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats secured an additional 15 seats, primarily in the South-East, as well as an increase in vote share of over 5%. The SNP won 4 additional seats in Scotland, all of which were held by the Liberal Democrats or Labour. In Northern Ireland, the Unionist parties saw some gains, with the Ulster Unionist Party returned to parliamentary representation, winning three seats, and the Democratic Unionist Party, regaining their two seats they had lost in 2019.

Foreign policy
The Conservatives promised a hardline stance against Russia in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and continued commitment to NATO, which included a continuation of economic sanctions and further support for Eastern European members of the Alliance. In addition, the Conservative Party set out in their manifesto their desire for "closer ties with the rest of the Anglosphere", and advaocated for a free-trade and free-movement union with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

By contrast, Labour leader Keir Starmer decided to finesse the issue, concerned with regards to both the "anti-imperialist" nature of the Corbynite left-wing of the party and the desires of moderates. As such, the Labour manifesto dedicated only a small section to foreign policy, in contrast to the large emphasis the Conservatives placed on their own credentials.

The Liberal Democrats adopted a broadly similar stance to the Conservatives on Russia and NATO, but was opposed to their stance on the Anglosphere and the CANZUK Union, instead seeking closer ties with the European Union (although, notably, the promise to fully rejoin the EU that the party had maintained since 2016 was dropped).

Economic policy
The Conservatives pledged an across-the-board income tax cut of 5%, and sought to cut "EU red tape and bureaucracy" in order to help businesses. In addition, they advocated for a "streamlining" of the civil service in order to help maintain a balanced budget, although Johnson was keen to emphasise that such a policy was, in his words, "by no means a return to austerity". As well as this, the Conservatives promised infrastructure projects and targeted government spending as part of the party's levelling-up policy.

Labour meanwhile advocated for an increase of corporation tax to 30%, and budget increases to the NHS and other social programs. In addition, Labour promised the nationalisation of Royal Mail and the railways, and the abolition of zero-hour contracts.

The Liberal Democrats' manifesto included little in the way of economic policy changes, aside from some minor increases in public spending, as well as a pledge not to increase VAT, income tax, or National Insurance. The Liberal Democrats also made a commitment to a "enterprise-driven Green Revolution", in order to combat climate change, via the use of tax credits and incentives to encourage businesses and individuals to reduce carbon emissions.

Constitutional issues
Throughout the campaign, the polls remained relatively close, so the possibility of a hung parliament was widely discussed. The Conservatives sought to highlight the danger of what they portrayed as the possibility of a "chaos coalition", consisting of Labour and other left-wing parties such as the SNP, Greens, and Liberal Democrats. In particular, the two former parties were paid particular attention, with the Conservative campaign stating that a Labour-SNP coalition would result in the breakup of the union, and portrayed the Greens as far-left radicals who would shift the Labour government far out of the mainstream. Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, insisted that no coalition would be made with the SNP, but these statements raised questions on what would happen if such a move would be necessary to form a government. As for possible Tory partners, the DUP, still angry at Johnson's "sellout" of them during Brexit negotiations, said that they would not support a potential Tory government. Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, stated that he would not support the Conservatives while Johnson was leader, but if Johnson was to resign, then he may be willing to work with the Party, dependent, of course, on who succeeded him.

The SNP promised a second referendum on Scottish independence should they get into power, and indicated that this would be a precondition of any coalition or confidence-and-supply agreement with other parties.

The Liberal Democrats said that they would support a referendum on rejoining the European Union, but that this would not be demanded during coalition negotiations. In addition, the Liberal Democrats, together with the Green Party, and Reform UK, all promised a transition from the First past the post system of electing MPs to the Commons, to Proportional representation.

The Conservative Party pledged to "restore the independence of the House of Lords" by reintroducing the hereditary peerages abolished by Tony Blair, and reestablishing the Judicial Committee to replace the Supreme Court. In addition, the Conservatives promised to devolve greater powers to county and district councils

Other issues
The Conservatives promised to reduce restrictions on medicinal cannabis use, while the Liberal Democrats took one step further and advocated a complete decriminalisation and legalisation of the drug.

With regards to transport, Labour committed to a full renationalisation of the railway industry, whereas the Conservatives stuck by their new Great British Railways system. Both major parties supported the continued funding of HS2, whereas the Liberal Democrats opposed it. The Conservatives, as part of their "levelling-up" policy, committed to improving transport links outside of the south-east, such as by the rebuilding and re-opening of railways closed in the 1963 Beeching cuts. The Conservatives also included in their manifesto a commitment to building a third runway at Heathrow.

The Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Labour all supported a ban on fracking, whilst the Conservatives proposed approving fracking on a case-by-case basis.

Debates
ITV held a three-way debate between Johnson, Starmer and Davey on 16 March, which Johnson was widely expected to lose. Defying expectations, Starmer made a number of gaffes, including his infamous line "[Socialism] is not about public ownership of industries", while Johnson had a surprisingly strong performance. This debate halted Labour's momentum, and may have contributed to their shock defeat in the election. In addition, Davey had a unexpectedly strong performance, which boosted the Liberal Democrats' numbers in the aftermath.

Another debate was held by the BBC on 4 April, this time a head-to-head between Johnson and Starmer. In this debate Starmer was widely considered the winner, turning around his performance in the ITV debate, although its effect on polling was unclear.

The BBC also held an episode of Question Time on 11 April, which was attended by Davey and Sturgeon, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Angela Rayner standing in for Johnson and Starmer respectively.

Endorsements
The following newspapers endorsed political parties running in the election in the following ways:

Results


'' Blue denotes constituencies won by Conservative candidates, red denotes constituencies won by Labour candidates, orange denotes constituencies won by Liberal Democrat candidates, light blue denotes constituencies won by Unionist parties in Northern Ireland, green denotes constituencies won by Nationalist parties in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The varying saturation of colours indicate where said candidate won by a margin of greater than 20%, between 20% and 5% and less than 5%, in order of most to least saturated.''

Defying initial expectations, the Conservatives managed to win their fifth consecutive election victory, albeit with a decrease of 20 seats from their victory in 2019. Despite some losses in Northern England, and an overall loss of seats in the region, the Conservatives managed to maintain many of their gains made in the so-called "red wall" region, even gaining some additional seats, particularly in Yorkshire. The primary beneficiary of the Conservative losses were the Liberal Democrats, who furthered their gains amongst traditional middle-class Conservative voters, who were put off by the seeming rightward turn of the party under Johnson's premiership. As such, despite declining support in the South-East, the Conservatives during this election were able to consolidate and further their support in East Anglia, the South-West, and particularly in the North.

The reason for the sudden Conservative swing on election day has been placed down to a number of factors. One such theory is the so-called "shy Tory" factor, whereby Conservative voters are less likely to report their voting intentions on polls. Another suggested idea is possibility that undecided voters tend to, on election day, vote for the Conservatives. Another theory, which was labelled by a number of polling companies such as Opinium as the most likely reason for the out-of-step polling, was that the Conservatives tend to do better among groups with higher turnout, such as older and middle-class voters, whereas predominantly Labour demographics, such as young people and ethnic minorities.

Another theory that has been put forward is that Keir Starmer received near-universal negative coverage from the press and print media, with The Sun, The Daily Mail, The Daily Telegraph, and The Daily Express all displaying overwhelmingly negative images of the Labour leader. Of Britain's major newspapers, only The Guardian and The Mirror endorsed Labour.