2015 United Kingdom general election

The 2014 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 8 May 2014 to elect 650 members to the House of Commons. Local elections took place in most areas on the same day.

Polls and commentators had predicted the outcome would be too close to call and would result in a hung parliament, likely with the Conservatives as the largest party. Opinion polls were eventually proven to have underestimated the Conservative vote as the party, led by Prime Minister David Cameron, having won the 2009 general election with a landslide majority, suffered a net loss of only 40, despite a decrease in vote share by 2.7%, giving the party a majority of 60, albeit much reduced from the 144 majority they had enjoyed after 2009. National newspapers overwhelmingly backed the Conservatives, such as The Sun, which encouraged voters to vote Conservative to keep "Red Ed", as the Labour leader was termed, out.

The Labour Party, had been led by Ed Miliband who had succeeded Gordon Brown following his resignation after the 2009 general election. Under his leadership, the party had moved leftwards away from New Labour to Miliband's own ideology, "One Nation Labour", based upon opposition to austerity, privatisation and deregulation, whilst also campaigning on some positions more associated with the right-wing, such as restrictions on immigration. In the general election, the party made a net gain of 36 seats, primarily in the North, Midlands and Wales. Despite this, the Conservatives dominated Southern England and much of London, with Labour even suffering some losses in the region to the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats saw a recovery in their seat and vote total, under their new leader, Sir Vince Cable, having declined in both respects during the 2009 election, with a net gain of 3 seats, primarily from Conservatives in the South-West and the North, and an increase in vote share by 3.1%. In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party returned to the Commons with two MPs after a five-year absence, while the Alliance Party lost its only seat despite an increase in total vote share.

Overview
The Conservative Party had governed with a majority of 144 since the 2009 general election, and was thus looking to secure a second term in power. The Labour Party, under Leader of the Opposition Ed Miliband, sought to retake the seats it had lost in the 2009 election, and move from Opposition into government. The Liberal Democrats, having campaigned under a more centrist platform with the leadership of Nick Clegg, moved back leftwards, targeting specific Conservative seats, primarily in the North and South-West, in the hopes of recovering from their losses in the previous election, which had seen the party lose nearly a third of its MPs. Many smaller parties, both left and right-wing also campaigned in this election. The Green Party mostly focused on the retention of its only seat, Brighton Pavilion, which had been won in the previous election from Labour, as well as targeting other left-wing and environmentalist voters in London and University cities. Meanwhile, the UK Independence Party sought to win over right-wing Conservative voters dissatisfied with the centrist direction of the Cameron government. With increased media coverage, votes and attention given to these small parties, it has been suggested that this election marked a realignment away from the traditional three-party dominance of the past century.

Campaign
Much of the campaign was focused on the economy, which was still recovering from the 2008 financial crash. The Conservatives pledged to continue their programme of austerity to reduce the deficit, with the aim of the UK having a consistent surplus by the end of 2019. Labour also accepted a degree of austerity, albeit to a lesser degree, with Miliband stating that he would begin to reverse the cuts once the UK's debt-to-GDP ratio began to fall. The Liberal Democrats, under Sir Vince Cable, did not support further cuts, promising a 1p increase in income tax to assist with deficit reduction instead.

The issue of the UK's membership of the European Union was also discussed, with Euroscepticism becoming increasingly prominent in British politics. UKIP pledged to hold a referendum on the EU, and stated that it would be a condition of any coalition with another party. The Conservatives did not support this, but promised that one would be held if any further powers were transferred to the European Commission. Labour agreed with the Conservative stance, but Miliband promised that in the event the party would actively campaign for the 'Remain' side. The Liberal Democrats did not support a referendum on Europe.

As opinion polls had not shown a consistent or large lead for any party in the run-up to an election, the possibility of a hung parliament was often discussed by commentators. The Conservatives insisted they were on course for an outright majority, and spent much of the campaign warning against a Labour-led "coalition of chaos" with the Liberal Democrats or nationalist parties such as the SNP, Plaid Cymru, or Sinn Fein. This proved effective at dominating the agenda of the campaign, and motivated many unionist-minded voters both in England and elsewhere to vote for them. Labour, in reaction, produced ever stronger denials that they would co-operate with the SNP after the election. The Conservatives and Lib Dems both also rejected the idea of a coalition with the SNP. This was particularly notable for Labour, to whom the SNP had previously offered support: their manifesto stated that "the SNP will never put the Tories into power. Instead, if there is an anti-Tory majority after the election, we will offer to work with other parties to keep the Tories out". SNP leader Alex Salmond later confirmed in the Scottish leaders' debate on STV that she was prepared to "help make Ed Miliband prime minister". However, on 26 April, Miliband ruled out a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP too. Miliband's comments suggested to many that he was working towards forming a minority government. The Green Party, Plaid Cymru, and the SDLP all ruled out working with the Tories. In the event, the Conservatives secured an overall majority, rendering much of the speculating and positioning moot.

Controversies
The media, particularly the print media, was accused, both during and after the election campaign, of being heavily biased against Labour in favour of the Conservatives. Reflecting on analysis carried out during the election campaign period, David Deacon of Loughborough University's Communication Research Centre said there was "aggressive partisanship in many sections of the national press" which could be seen especially in the "Tory press". Similarly, Steve Barnett, Professor of Communications at the University of Westminster, said that, while partisanship has always been part of British newspaper campaigning, in this election it was "more relentless and more one-sided" in favour of the Conservatives and against Labour and the other parties. Only two of Britain's major newspapers, The Mirror and The Guardian, devoted their main endorsement to Labour, and all other newspapers that took a political stance, with the exception of The Independent, which endorsed a Conservative or Labour coalition with Liberal Democrat involvement, endorsed the Conservatives.

Following the election, the Electoral Commission and the Crown Prosecution Service launched an investigation into the spending of the major parties during the campaign, after which Labour and the Liberal Democrats were both fined £20,000 each, and the Conservatives £70,000, and police investigations took place into potential criminal conduct by 20-30 Tory MPs (although no charges were brought against those investigated in the event).

On 3 May 2014, Ed Miliband unveiled the so-called "EdStone" in the marginal constituency of Hastings and Rye. The stone in question was 8ft 6in tall, and featured six election pledges carved into it alongside the Labour logo and Miliband's signature. It was widely mocked by both media and pundits, with John Rentoul, Tony Blair's biographer calling it the "most absurd, ugly, embarrassing, childish, silly, patronising, idiotic, insane, ridiculous gimmick I have ever seen", and the then-Mayor of London Boris Johnson describing it as "some weird commie slab". The slab ended up costing the Labour party £7,614, and was dubbed the "heaviest suicide note in history", referencing Labour's 1983 manifesto which was called "the longest suicide note in history".

Debates
The first series of televised leaders' debates in the United Kingdom was held in the previous election. Following much debate and various proposals, a three-way debate was held between Miliband, Cameron and Cable, leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats respectively, in which Cameron was considered the winner.

A series of one-on-one interviews were also held between each of the three leaders and Jeremy Paxman. In these Miliband was considered to have been the better prepared, with his "Hell yes, I'm tough enough" comment attracting particular attention.

Endorsements
Various newspapers, organisations and individuals endorsed parties or individual candidates for the election. For example, the main national newspapers gave the following endorsements:

Opinion polls
Throughout the 55th parliament, first and second place in the polls alternated without exception between the Conservatives and Labour. Immediately following the 2009 election, the Conservatives had a large lead, however support for the party quickly fell as harsh austerity measures were enacted and the economy remained sluggish. After a brief recovery in Conservative fortunes during 2011, driven by a slight economic recovery, support for the Tories again dipped as the economy slowed down once more, and by 2013, Labour had a 13-point lead over the Conservatives. UKIP gained support rapidly after 2012, reaching a peak of 12% in the summer of 2013. Meanwhile, support for the Conservatives, although hampered by the rise of UKIP, began to recover, so that by the beginning of 2014 Labour's lead had all but evaporated. The opinion polls throughout the campaign failed to show a consistent lead for either side, with both parties polling within 3 points of each other, and seat predictions typically estimating the Conservatives to be the largest party in a hung parliament.



Exit poll
An exit poll, collected by Ipsos MORI and GfK on behalf of the BBC, ITN and Sky News, was published at 10 pm at the end of voting. It interviewed around 22,000 people across a sample of 133 constituencies:

The exit poll's predictions diverged significantly from most other seat projections around the time, which had near-universally predicted a hung parliament or a razor-thin Conservative majority, as well as much larger gains for Labour and the Liberal Democrats. This led many pundits and MPs to speculate that the exit poll was inaccurate, and that the final result would have the two main parties closer to each other. Former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown vowed to "eat his hat" and former Labour "spin doctor" Alastair Campbell promised to "eat his kilt" if the exit poll, which predicted only marginal gains for their respective parties, was right.

As it turned out, the results were even more favourable to the Conservatives than the poll predicted, with the Conservatives obtaining 356 seats, a majority of 62. Ashdown and Campbell were presented with hat- and kilt-shaped cakes (labelled "eat me") on BBC Question Time on 9 May.

Results
Despite most opinion polls predicting that the Conservatives and Labour were neck and neck, the Conservatives secured a surprise victory after having won a clear lead over their rivals and incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron was able to form a majority single-party government with a working majority of 62 (in practice increased to 65 due to Sinn Féin's four MPs' abstention). Thus the result bore resemblance to 1992, in which an incumbent Conservative government was also re-elected with a much-reduced majority, after much expectation of a hung Parliament or Labour victory.

The Labour Party polled below expectations, winning 28.0% of the vote and 225 seats, 36 more than its previous result in 2009. Labour gained some seats in the North and in Wales, but lost a number of seats in the South-East and London to the Tories, including their only seat in the East of England region, Luton North.

The Liberal Democrats, having lost nearly a third of their seats in the 2009 election, recovered somewhat, making a net gain of three.

The UK Independence Party (UKIP) won no seats, despite increasing its vote share to 6.7% (the fourth-highest share overall). Party leader Nigel Farage, having failed to win the constituency of South Thanet, tendered his resignation, although this was rejected by his party's executive council and he stayed on as leader.

In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party returned to the Commons with two MPs after a five-year absence, gaining one seat from the Democratic Unionist Party and one from Sinn Féin, while the Alliance Party lost its only Commons seat to the DUP, despite an increase in total vote share.

Aftermath
On 8 May, both Miliband (Labour) and Farage (UKIP) resigned as their party leaders after worse-than-expected results. However, on 11 May, the UKIP executive rejected his resignation on the grounds that the election campaign had been a "great success", and Farage agreed to continue as party leader. Alan Sugar, Baron Sugar, a Labour peer in the House of Lords, also announced his resignation from the Labour party, sitting as a crossbench peer from then on, due to the party running what he perceived as an anti-business campaign.

The resignation of Miliband triggered a contest for the Labour leadership, which was won by left-wing candidate Jeremy Corbyn, who would lead the party until after the next election in 2019. Cameron would continue to serve as Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party for another four years, until he resigned in June 2018, succeeded in both offices by former Mayor of London Boris Johnson.

Financial markets reacted positively to the result, with the pound sterling rising against the Euro and US dollar when the exit poll was published, and the FTSE 100 stock market index rising 5.3% on 8 May. The BBC reported: "Bank shares saw some of the biggest gains, on hopes that the sector will not see any further rises in levies. Shares in Lloyds Banking Group rose 8.75% while Barclays was 6.7% higher", adding: "Energy firms also saw their share prices rise, as Labour had wanted a price freeze and more powers for the energy regulator. British Gas owner Centrica rose 11.1% and SSE shares were up 8.3%." BBC economics editor Robert Peston noted: "To state the obvious, investors love the Tories' general election victory. There are a few reasons. One (no surprise here) is that Labour's threat of breaking up banks and imposing energy price caps has been lifted. Second is that investors have been discounting days and weeks of wrangling after polling day over who would form the government – and so they are semi-euphoric that we already know who's in charge. Third, many investors tend to be economically Conservative and instinctively Conservative". The pound sterling also rose to a peak of $1.92 and €1.58 on 10 May, two days after the election, its strongest position against the dollar since 2008, and against the euro since 2002.