2016 United States presidential election (Our Democracy timeline)

The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Democratic ticket of former Wisconsin senator Russ Feingold and United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro defeated the Republican ticket of senator Ted Cruz and former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, in what was widely regarded as an upset. Feingold took office as the 45th president, and Castro as the 48th vice president, on January 20, 2017.

Per the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution, then-incumbent president Barack Obama was ineligible to seek a third term. Feingold secured the nomination over a crowded field of candidates in the Democratic primary. Cruz emerged from a similarly crowded field of Republican candidates. The Libertarian Party nominated former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, and the Green Party nominated Jill Stein.

Primaries
Eighteen major candidates actively ran for the Republican nomination, making the field the larger than any primary campaign before. Since then-president Barack Obama had negative approval ratings, many Republican politicians believed that the winner of the primary contest would likely become president. Cruz was the first entrant into the field, announcing his candidacy on March 16, 2015. Other early entrants included New Jersey governor Chris Christie, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Several candidates withdrew due to poor poll performance before the Iowa caucus on February 1, 2016. Twelve candidates remained at this point, including Cruz, Bush, Christie, Palin, former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell, senator Kelly Ayotte, senator Rand Paul, former U.S. representative Allen West, former senator Jim DeMint, and neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Following a poor performance in Iowa, McDonnell, Christie, and DeMint withdrew. Ayotte also withdrew following her poor performance in her home state of New Hampshire. Of the early states, Cruz performed best in Iowa (at 35.5%), South Carolina (at 30.5%), and Nevada (at 41.8%); Palin won New Hampshire, with 42.9% of the vote.

After the four early states, six candidates remained: Cruz, Bush, Palin, Paul, West, and Carson. While Cruz had momentum going into Super Tuesday, he ultimately underperformed expectations, losing several states he was expected to win. Still, Cruz netted the most delegates that night, with Palin netting the second most and Carson netting the third most. In the weeks following Super Tuesday, Paul, West, and Bush suspended their campaigns.

In contests following Super Tuesday, Cruz and Palin traded wins, with Carson often coming in a distant third. Carson eventually withdrew following the primaries on March 15, 2016. His endorsement of Cruz, which occurred during his campaign suspension speech, is widely credited for improving Cruz's performance in latter primaries. Palin suspended her campaign following the New York primary, when she was mathematically eliminated from overtaking Cruz.

Democratic Party
Former secretary of state, senator, and First Lady Hillary Clinton was the first candidate to declare her candidacy, with an announcement on April 12, 2015, via a video message. She initially received little competition, with former governors Martin O'Malley and Lincoln Chaffee announcing in the same month. On May 19, 2024, Clinton's husband, former president Bill Clinton suffered a debilitating stroke. This ultimately led to the suspension of the Clinton campaign on May 23, 2024, in a speech in Washington, D.C.

Following Clinton's withdrawal from the race, several more major candidates prepared announcements for the summer. Former senator Russ Feingold led the pack, announcing on June 3. Other summer entrants including governor Jim Webb, governor Jerry Brown, senator Cory Booker, and Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel. In the fall of 2015, several more announced their candidacy, including former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg and senator Elizabeth Warren. Though heavily rumored as a candidate, vice president Joe Biden chose not to run due to the death of his son Beau Biden.

Going into the Iowa caucus, there was no consistent front runner in the primaries. Bloomberg, Warren, and Booker were seen as potential winners of the Iowa caucus, based on polls in January 2016. In Ann Seltzer's final poll of the race, however, former senator Russ Feingold was shown with a lead within the margin of error. These results bared out, despite pundit skepticism - Feingold received 23% of final round votes, followed by Booker (21%), Bloomberg (19%), Warren (17%), Brown (9%), and Emanuel (6%). Following this upset, Feingold went on to win the New Hampshire and Nevada primaries, although Booker ultimately won the South Carolina primary.

Following Super Tuesday, Warren and Brown dropped out due to poor performances in early contests. Both endorsed Feingold, who engaged in a close race with Bloomberg and Booker. Feingold continued to improve his performances in later contents, causing Emanuel to withdrawal and endorse him after the Illinois primary. Bloomberg and Booker both dropped out on the same day, April 19, 2016, after Feingold's easy victory in the New York primary.

General election campaign
Polling coming out the primaries showed a close race between Feingold and Cruz, mirroring the trajectory of the 2012 presidential election. As the campaign moved in the final stages, however, Cruz gained a consistent lead in polling. As a result, in addition to negative approval ratings of then-president Barack Obama, pundits generally rated the race as leaning Republican. On October 1, 2016, the election modeling website 538 gave Cruz an 88% chance of winning the election, the highest of the campaign cycle. By November 8, 2022, this number was 74%. Polling aggregates on the day before the election had Cruz leading Feingold by an average of 1.8 points, but Cruz was heavily favored regardless due to the distribution of electoral votes favoring Republicans in state-by-state polling.

Results
The Feingold/Castro ticket's victory was considered an upset by mainstream pundits and pollsters. The Democratic ticket flipped Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, while the Republic ticket flipped Iowa and Florida. While Democratic strategists had worried in the months running up to the election that electoral college disadvantages could create a popular vote-electoral vote victor split, this was not the case. The tipping point state, Pennsylvania, voted 0.72% more Republican than the national popular vote.

Close states
Prior to the 2016 election, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine's 2nd Congressional District, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida were all widely considered to be swing states. Minnesota and New Mexico were also offered as potential Republican pickups, in the event that Cruz outperformed expectations. Each of these states or districts fell within a 10% margin of victory for either candidate, with the exception of New Mexico.

States where the margin of victory was under 1% (48 electoral votes; 19 won by Feingold, 29 by Cruz):


 * 1)  Maine's 2nd Congressional District, 0.0223% – 1 electoral vote 
 * 2)  Ohio, 0.39% – 16 electoral votes 
 * 3)  Florida, 0.98% – 29 electoral votes 

States where the margin of victory was under 5% (99 electoral votes; 51 won by Feingold, 48 by Cruz):


 * 1)  Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, 1.25% – 1 electoral vote 
 * 2)  Georgia, 2.01% – 16 electoral votes 
 * 3)  Arizona, 2.33% – 11 electoral votes 
 * 4)  Pennsylvania, 2.48% – 20 electoral votes  (tipping point state)
 * 5)  North Carolina, 3.08% – 15 electoral votes 
 * 6)  Nevada, 3.99% – 6 electoral votes 
 * 7)  New Hampshire, 4.07% – 4 electoral votes 
 * 8)  Michigan, 4.46% – 16 electoral votes 
 * 9)  Iowa, 4.92% – 6 electoral votes 

States where the margin of victory was under 10% (54 electoral votes; 44 won by Feingold, 10 by Cruz):


 * 1)  Wisconsin, 5.22% – 16 electoral votes 
 * 2)  Virginia, 5.40% – 13 electoral votes 
 * 3)  Minnesota, 7.11% – 10 electoral votes 
 * 4)  Colorado, 7.33% – 9 electoral votes 
 * 5)  Maine At-Large, 8.73% – 2 electoral votes 
 * 6)  Missouri, 9.92% – 10 electoral votes 

Concurrent Elections
The 2016 presidential election was held in conjunction with elections for an array of local, state, and federal positions and ballot measures. This included the Class III U.S. Senate seats as well as the House of Representatives.

Senate results
The U.S. senate seat changes resulted in the 115th Congress having 50 Democratic senators, 2 independent senators caucusing with the Democratic Party, and 48 Republican Senators.

House results
The U.S. House of Representative elections resulted in a 237R-198D House in the 115th Congress.