2024 United States Senate Election (Pear's Future III)

The 2024 Senate Elections took place with Joe Biden's re-election to a second term. Despite Biden's re-election, Republicans were able to gain 3 seats in the Senate, taking back the Senate Majority. Following the disappointing performance Republicans had in the 2022 midterms, Republicans were able to improve with turnout and candidate quality. This was especially possible with Democratic incumbents in states that were simultaneously won by Donald Trump in the Presidential election, such as West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

All in all, Republicans made 2 gains in the Senate, easily flipping West Virginia where Democratic Senator Joe Manchin retired. Republicans also won Arizona, where incumbent indpendent Senator Kyrsten Sinema lost re-election in a 3 way race.

Arizona
Incumbent Senator Krysten Sinema ran for re-election to a second term. Sinema had been elected in 2018 as a Democrat, but announced in December 2022 that she would leave the Democratic party to become an independent. Despite her switch, Sinema continued to caucus with the Democrats in exchange for keeping her committee assignments. Although members of the Democratic party establishment, including Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, majority whip Dick Durbin, Representative Nancy Pelosi, all wanted to endorse Sinema and not nominate a candidate in order to split the vote, U.S. Representative Reuben Gallego decided to run and won the Democratic primary easily. Republican Doug Ducey, the former Governor of Arizona, won a crowded field of Republican candidates to win the parties' nomination. Due to vote splitting between Gallego and Sinema, Ducey was able to easily win re-election.

Independents

 * Kyrsten Sinema, Incumbent U.S. Senator (2019-2025)

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Reuben Gallego, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 3rd Congressional District (2015-2025)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Widthrew
 * Doug Ducey, former Governor of Arizona (2015-2023)
 * Blake Masters, venture capitalist and nominee for Senate in 2022
 * Mark Finchem, former State Representative and nominee for Arizona Secretary of State in 2022
 * Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sherriff
 * Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th Congressional District (2017-2027)
 * Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer (2019-2027) and candidate for Governor of Arizona in 2022
 * Mark Bronvich, former Arizona Attorney General (2015-2023) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022