2018 Conservative Party leadership election

The 2018 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when David Cameron announced on 24 May 2018 that he would resign as Leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister once a successor had been elected. Nominations opened on 10 June; 10 candidates were nominated. The first ballot of Members of Parliament (MPs) took place on 13 June, with a second ballot of MPs also taking place on 20 June, after the reduction in the number of candidates to two. The final ballot occurred between the two remaining candidates, Chancellor George Osborne, and former Mayor of London Boris Johnson, with Johnson winning narrowly over Osborne.

Speculation about a leadership election first arose following Cameron's announcement shortly before the 2014 general election that he intended not to run for a third term in office. Subsequently, speculation began surrounding a possible successor, with Osborne, Johnson, Home Secretary Theresa May, and Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, among others being cast as possible successors. These increased as the next general election approached, with the expectation that Cameron would resign before it was due to be called in May 2019.

Johnson would subsequently succeed Cameron as Leader of the Conservative Party and as Prime Minister, taking office on 23 July 2018.

Background
Cameron stated on 23 March 2014 that he would not serve a third term as Prime Minister if he was re-elected in the upcoming election, which sparked media speculation about a possible successor to the Prime Minister in this eventuality. Subsequently the Conservatives did indeed retain their majority in the election, although it was reduced from 140 to just 50.

Despite the strong economic situation, the so-called "Osborne Boom", Cameron himself was increasingly unpopular amongst Conservatives, particularly on the right of his party, due to the former's pro-European stances, in contrast to the latter's growing Euroscepticism. Amongst the British public as well, support for leaving the EU reached a peak of 54% in mid-2015, largely due to the ongoing migrant crisis and fears of mass immigration. In addition, the government faced diminishing popularity amongst the broader public as well, due to a variety of scandals, and by early 2018 the government had only a 5-3% lead ahead of Labour. On 24 May 2018 Cameron announced that he would be resigning to "return to private life" and would also more broadly be retiring from politics, resigning his parliamentary seat of Witney at the same time, thus beginning a leadership contest.

Candidates
The first candidates to declare were the Chancellor George Osborne, and the Justice Secretary Michael Gove. Shortly afterwards, former Mayor of London Boris Johnson and Africa Minister Rory Stewart also declared their candidacy.

Osborne's campaign mostly emphasised the strong economy, and pledged a continuation of Cameron's policies, including supporting the UK's continued membership of the European union. By contrast, both Gove and Johnson promised a referendum on the European Union. Johnson himself ran on a "quasi-libertarian" platform, according to James Forsyth of The Spectator, whilst Gove's was "mostly neoconservative in nature". The fourth candidate in the race, Rory Stewart, was in favour of the EU like Osborne, but advocated for a "more compassionate, gentle conservatism" with "more concern for our most vulnerable citizens".

The candidates themselves came under some criticism, with The Observer noting that "out of the four candidates in the race, two are Old Etonians, and all four were educated at private schools", and suggesting that "the background and education of the candidates is as much evidence as any that, for the most part, the Tories are still run by Iain Macleod's 'magic circle' of Old Etonians, 55 years after that group conspired to elect the Earl of Home as Tory leader"

Campaign
At the beginning of the campaign, the primary contest was regarded to be between Osborne on the moderate, pro-EU side of the party, and Johnson and Gove on the right-wing, Eurosceptic wing. With the addition of Rory Stewart's candidacy, the situation was assessed by Ben Riley-Smith of the Telegraph as being a "three-and-a-half man race". The campaign mostly centred around the issues of Europe, immigration, taxes, and the environment. Osborne warned that a Gove or Johnson leadership would result in an "exodus" of pro-EU Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, whilst the latter two argued that a greater risk came from a loss of support to the Eurosceptic UKIP.

A major scandal occurred in the middle of the campaign, with Michael Gove admitting to having taken cocaine twenty years previously. Considering his previous hardline stance on drug use as Justice Secretary, as well as his criticism of Boris Johnson's plan to legalise cannabis as "giving a free pass to druggies", this was viewed by many in the media and the public as hypocritical. Subsequently, Gove's support diminished significantly, with many of his prior supporters withdrawing their endorsements. The net effect of the scandal, in the words of The Spectator's Stephen Daisley, was to "diminish Gove's candidacy, already struggling to differentiate itself from Johnson's, to a mere protest vote from Eurosceptics who do not want to support Boris". The New Statesman's David Gauke noted that the loss of support for Gove came "not due to outrage at his drug use, but the perception that the outrage from it would result in Boris becoming the primary Eurosceptic candidate and probable leader, causing them to back him out of cynical self-interest" thereby "creating a self-fulfilling prophecy". Opinion polling immediately after the scandal showed that, against Osborne, 34% of Conservative members would vote for him, down from 41% directly before.

First ballot
No candidate obtained a majority, with Boris Johnson gaining the most votes, followed closely by George Osborne. Rory Stewart had a surprisingly strong performance, whereas Michael Gove, considered the "third candidate" throughout most of the campaign, was polled as an embarrassing fourth, far behind any of the other candidates. As no candidate had the required majority of 15%, the two least popular candidates, Stewart and Gove, were eliminated, and the second ballot would occur finally between Osborne and Johnson. Gove would go on to endorse Johnson, whereas Stewart declined to endorse either candidate, instead encouraging his supporters to spoil their ballots.

Second ballot
Johnson narrowly secured the required 15% majority, meaning that he would go on to become Leader of the Conservative Party. Had just three MPs changed their vote, it would have been enough to deny Johnson this victory and send the vote to a members' ballot, which would have been the first time that Conservative Party members directly elected the Prime Minister. Osborne subsquently conceded and noted in his concession speech that "we are all Conservatives, and regardless of division on certain issues, we can always stand together in our common goals of a sound economy, opportunity, and security". This was regarded by some in the media as a way of "sucking up to Johnson" in the hopes that he would offer Osborne the Chancellorship, or another major ministerial post. However, Osborne subsequently disspelled those rumours, stating his intention to become a solely backbench MP. Incumbent leader David Cameron subsequently congratulated Johnson, as did a number of other Conservative politicians and world leaders.

Reaction
The Sun, The Daily Telegraph, The Daily Mail and The Daily Express, which had all endorsed Johnson's candidacy, celebrated his victory in the leadership election, with The Sun running a front page headlined 'Johnsun' which made reference to both his election victory and the heatwave going on on the day. The Spectator noted that Johnson's victory marked a clear shift away from the politics of Cameron and Osborne, suggesting that the party had been shifted away from the centre by the outcome. James Forsyth stated that he believed that the primary reason for Johnson's victory was former Stewart supporters switching to his campaign over Osborne's due to the former's liberal record on social issues and civil liberties.

Labour leader and Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn said that Johnson's victory represented "a triumph for the elitist, xenophobic, and wealthy in society", and called for an immediate general election. UKIP leader Nigel Farage suggested the possibility of an electoral pact between UKIP and the Conservatives in the upcoming election, whilst Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable called Johnson's pledge for a referendum on Europe "pandering to racists and xenophobes", a statement that he later retracted and apologised for.

United States President Hillary Clinton congratulated Johnson on his victory, whilst also expressing concern about the latter's Eurosceptic tendencies. Among the other congratulations were French President Francois Fillon, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.