2022 Erbilstan parliamentary election

The 2022 Erbilstan Parliamentary Election was held on 26 October 2022 to elect 89 members to the Erbilian Parliament. The Social Labor Party, lead by Ibrahim Mahmed, lost seats but secured mandate to form a government as the largest party despite losing a no confidence motion prior to the election. The election saw the governing parties lose seats especially the Erbil Nationalist Party losing 7 seats. The Royal Conservative Party failed to capitalize on the failures of the governing parties and lost 4 seats. Iraq Unionist Party won in the election gaining 16 seats and expected to become the kingmaker in the government formation process. The Social Labor Party formed a confidence and supply agreement the Royal Conservative Party.

Background
In 2018, the Social Labor Party won plurality of votes receiving 42% of the vote and 67 seats - well short of a majority. The Royal Conservative Party received 34% of the vote winning 67 seats. Erbil Nationalist Party gained 26 seats and won 16% of the vote while the Iraqi Unionist Party got the lowest share of the vote with 8% gaining 13 seats.

Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahmed of Social Labor Party started talks with Erbil Nationalist Party leader Mohammad Ila. Press reports and leaks pointed out that Mahmed wanted to form a SLP-led minority government with support from Erbil Nationalist Party. However, such proposition was rejected by Ila. Another offer was made by Mahmed and this time, it includes the offer of coalition government with the promise of referendum on reforming electoral system and republicanism.

The Proportional Representation Act of 2018 was amended. Therefore, the electoral system changed from Alternative Member System to closed-list party-list proportional representation using Saint-Lague system where people will vote for the party in multimember constituencies. It also reduced the number of constituencies from 160 to 89. The term of parliament is reduced from 5 years to 3 years. The referendum bill on republicanism was met with opposition from a faction of Social Labor Party. The vote was defeated after the said faction abstained on the bill paving the way for rift in the governing parties with Mohammad Ila threatening to withdraw from the government.

On 1 September 2022, Mohammad Ila announced that the Erbil Nationalist MPs are resigning from the government. Ila announced that the government will no longer rely on Erbil Nationalists in all issues. Leader of the Opposition Ahmed Khoury filed a no confidence motion against the government on 3 October 2022 where the government was defeated, 67-93. Ibrahim Mahmed flocked to the Governor's House to tender the government's resignation.

The opinion polls has predicted that the Social Labor Party will be the largest party but will suffer big loses. However, at election night, the ruling party took 33 seats, down 5 from their initial seat allocation. The Royal Conservative Party, led by Ahmed Khoury, took 26 seats, a decrease of 4 seats from their initial allocation. The biggest winner of the election is the Iraq Unionist Party, led by Rashed Sanook, managed to do unexpectedly well winning 23 seats, an increase of 16 seats. The biggest loser of the election is the Erbil Nationalist Party taking 7 seats, a decrease of 7 seats.

The caretaker Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahmed claimed victory in the election as his party retained its status as the largest party to form a government. Mohammad Ila refused to entertain any proposal of support from Mahmed or Khoury. IUP leader Rashed Sanook entertained the idea of supporting a SLP-minority government provided that there will be a referendum on the status of Erbilstan rejoining the Republic of Iraq. Most notable that the Royal Conservative Party leader and Leader of the Opposition, Ahmed Khoury is mum on possible talks with the Prime Minister.

On 3 November 2022, Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahmed started talks with Rashed Sanook. However, the negotiations failed after Mahmed refused to hold another divisive politics and "wanted to focus on people's welfare". On 10 November 2022, Mahmed held talks with Ahmed Khoury. A week later, Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahmed and Ahmed Khoury announced in a joint statement that the Social Labor Party will lead a minority government with support from the Royal Conservative Party. According to Mahmed, such agreement was based on "national unity" where the government will now focus on the welfare of the people and improvement of economy. According to Khoury, the agreement was "flexible" for the Royal Conservative Party as it will vote to budgets that are "pro-small business" and "pro-entrepreneur" while "maintaining independence" on other policies set by the Social Labor Party. The 19th Parliament was opened by Governor General Philip Wittelsbach on 5 December 2022.

Parties
Following the agreement for an election to be held in 2022, each party nominated a list of candidates and also selected a party leader to stand for Prime Minister.

Social Labor Party
The center-left political party whose programs are free education, subsidized healthcare and giving people enough welfare for them to support their needs.

Royal Conservative Party
The center-right political party whose programs are staying Erbilstan as a Commonwealth realm, opening the country to foreign investments and supporting small and medium enterprises in the country.

Iraq Unionist Party
A nationwide unionist party founded on 2013 based in Nineveh, initially proposed to unite Nineveh and Kirkuk under Iraq. Now, they advocate for the return of all Erbilstan's governorates to the Republic of Iraq.

Erbil Nationalist Party
A nationalist party founded on 2008 to make Erbilstan a republic country. Initially supported turning the country into a federal one.

Campaign
The campaign was dominated by the government crisis and no confidence vote. Social Labor leader and interim Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahmed defended his government's policies and blamed Mohammad Ila and the Erbil Nationalist Party for playing politics instead of serving the people. Royal Conservative Party leader Ahmed Khoury attacked the ruling party for their failure to address unemployment and fight inflation.

Meanwhile, Erbil Nationalist Party leader Mohammad Ila was criticized due to his party's failure to keep their 2018 manifesto on delivering a referendum on the status of Erbilstan as a commonwealth country (republican bill). Rashed Sanook heavily campaigned in Nineveh where the most number of seats in Erbilstan is located. He promised that he will work with any government that includes their goal of a referendum on the future of Erbilstan in Iraq.

Results
The exit poll at 10PM predicted the Social Labor Party at 35 seats and the Royal Conservatives at 32. This exit poll overestimated the two largest parties and underestimated Iraq Unionists' big victory and the Erbil Nationalists' serious defeat. The preliminary result was praised by the Social Labor Party as they will retain the right to form a government as the largest party. The Social Labor Party came first in Erbil governorate with 57% and a much better result in Dohuk taking 64% of the vote. The Royal Conservatives came first in Sulaymaniyah and Kirkuk governorates with 39% and 53%, respectively. Rashed Sanook's campaign went well as his Iraq Unionist Party swept Nineveh governorate with 49% of the vote.