2022 Governor Elections (Pear's Future)

The 2022 Governor Elections took place in the middle of Joe Biden's term. Although Republicans made minor gains in the US Senate and in the House of Representatives, they were only able to break even in the governorships, largely due to poor candidate quality plaguing the republican party in many crucial states. Republicans had 6 incumbent governors in states that President Joe Biden won, including Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont, where Biden won by large 2-1 margins. Democrats had one governor running in a state won by President Donald Trump, being Laura Kelly from Kansas.

Background
In 2021, Republican expanded their majority in the National Governors Association, after Glen Youngkin won an upset in the Democrat-leaning state of Virginia. Following the upset, many Republicans were expected to win in 2022. However, Republicans blundered by nominating very conservative candidates that upset moderate voters in swing states. Additionally, the Dobbs. vs. Jackson case also hurt the Republicans. By August, Democrats won a special house seat in Alaska, which was seen as a massive upset. This made many believe that Republicans were actually going to lose seats in the Governors association.

Democrats also had a large range of strong incumbents, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Kansas Governor Laura Kelly. Kelly in particular, was seen as one of the incumbent governors most likley to lose re-election, as her state voted for Trump by double digits; however she won narrowly in an upset. Republicans also had many strong incumbents, including Ron Desantis from Florida, Brian Kemp from Georgia, and Gregg Abbot from Texas. All three were from swing states in the 2020 Presidential election but all won by more than 5 points.

However, Republicans poor decisions in open races caused them many crucial seats, in Democratic states of Massachusetts and Maryland, where two popular Republican governors retired, Republicans ran far right candidates that lost them any chance of winning the state. Additionally, Republicans also ran far-right candidates in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan. Michigan in particular had one of the most interesting primaries, following several Republican front runners being disqualified from the race.

The end result was both parties breaking even. Democrats reclaimed the states of Maryland and Massachusetts easily, whilst Republicans flipped Nevada and Wisconsin, both very narrow wins. Many saw this as a disappointing night for the Republicans, as Biden's poor approval rating should've resulted in a larger landslide. Republicans however did do well in historically Democrat states like Oregon and Connecticut.

Arizona
Incumbent Governor Doug Ducey was term limited. Republican Kari Lake narrowly held the seat for Republicans, defeating Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.

Georgia
Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp won re-election to a second term, defeating Stacey Abrams in a rematch. Although the election was expected to be close, Kemp ultimately won re-election by a solid 6 point margin.

Maine
Incumbent Governor Janet Mills won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Republican former Governor Paul LePage. The election was close, but Mills ultimately won by a narrow 4.3 percent margin.

Maryland
Incumbent Governor Larry Hogan was term limited and could not run for re-election. Democrat Wes Moore won the election in a landslide, giving Democrats one of two gains they had in the 2022 Governor elections.

Massachusetts
Incumbent Governor Charlie Baker retired instead of seeking a third term in office. Democrat Maura Healy won the open seat in a landslide.