2022 United Kingdom General Election

The 2022 United Kingdom General Election was a snap election called in the aftermath of the civil unrest caused by the Summer of Discontent. After facing severe critism over the polices handling of the unrest, and with more strikes looming, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would call a snap election for the 5th of October 2022, with him calling it an "opportunity to show the renegade unions who really rules Britain".

The election would be marked by further large protests against the incumbent Conservative government, and a surge in support for the newly formed Social Movement - a left-wing alliance of former Labour MPs who left the party over its response to the events of the Summer, the Green Party of England and Wales, and backed by formly Labour-Affiliated unions Unite, RMT, NASWUT, UCU, and the NEU - and the Liberal Democrats. The Opposition Labour party struggled to define itself during the election, with its traditional left-wing base fleeing to the Social Movement, yet only a slow return of Centrist, 'Middle England' voters to compensate. The SNP used the unrest across England as a rallying cry for indepdence, with Scotland suffering from less industrial and civil action. Although apathy with the ongoing strikes was growing during the course of the campaign, a victory with striking bus drivers in London led to greater momentum on the side of the Unions, with the TUC seeing union membership rise by 14% annually by the end of the election campaign.

The Election would provide a crushing defeat for the ruling Conservatives, with the party losing over 110 MPs - including its own leader and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, marking the first time in modern British politics than a sitting PM has lost their seat. For the Labour party, it was a mixed picture; the party gained over 50 MPs, yet a major breakthrough did not occur, and it was a long way from an overall majority. The election was widely viewed to be a major success for third parties, with the newly formed Social Movement electing 27 MPs and achieving 14.3% of the vote - retaining almost all of the Socialist Campaign Group & Green Party MPs who defected to form it, and achiving a record for a party formed just 4 months prior -, and the SNP and Liberal Democrats both making large gains.

In the aftermath of the election, both Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer would resign, with Ed Milliband being selected to lead a Labour minority government, and the party, as a candidate acceptable to both the SNP and Social Movement. The Milliband government would go onto repeal restrictive Trade Union laws passed in response to the 2022 Strikes, and offer a 8% pay rise to public sector workers, which would eventually lead to an end of the Summer of Discontent, with the final strike action by the UCU ending on the 29th of October after the new government announced pension cuts would be cancelled amid wider reforms to the university system

Foreign policy
The Conservatives promised a hardline stance against Russia in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and continued commitment to NATO, which included a continuation of economic sanctions and further support for Eastern European members of the Alliance. In addition, the Conservative Party set out in their manifesto their desire for "closer ties with the rest of the Anglosphere", and advaocated for a free-trade and free-movement union with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

By contrast, Labour leader Keir Starmer decided to finesse the issue, concerned with regards to both the "anti-imperialist" nature of the Corbynite left-wing of the party and the desires of moderates. As such, the Labour manifesto dedicated only a small section to foreign policy, in contrast to the large emphasis the Conservatives placed on their own credentials.

The Liberal Democrats adopted a broadly similar stance to the Conservatives on Russia and NATO, but was opposed to their stance on the Anglosphere and the CANZUK Union, instead seeking closer ties with the European Union (although, notably, the promise to fully rejoin the EU that the party had maintained since 2016 was dropped).

Economic policy
The Conservatives pledged an across-the-board income tax cut of 5%, and sought to cut "EU red tape and bureaucracy" in order to help businesses. In addition, they advocated for a "streamlining" of the civil service in order to help maintain a balanced budget, although Johnson was keen to emphasise that such a policy was, in his words, "by no means a return to austerity". As well as this, the Conservatives promised infrastructure projects and targeted government spending as part of the party's levelling-up policy.

Labour meanwhile advocated for an increase of corporation tax to 30%, and budget increases to the NHS and other social programs. In addition, Labour promised the nationalisation of Royal Mail and the railways, and the abolition of zero-hour contracts.

The Liberal Democrats' manifesto included little in the way of economic policy changes, aside from some minor increases in public spending, as well as a pledge not to increase VAT, income tax, or National Insurance. The Liberal Democrats also made a commitment to a "enterprise-driven Green Revolution", in order to combat climate change, via the use of tax credits and incentives to encourage businesses and individuals to reduce carbon emissions.

The Summer of Discontent
Throughout the campaign, the polls remained relatively close, so the possibility of a hung parliament was widely discussed. The Conservatives sought to highlight the danger of what they portrayed as the possibility of a "chaos coalition", consisting of Labour and other left-wing parties such as the SNP, Greens, and Liberal Democrats. In particular, the two former parties were paid particular attention, with the Conservative campaign stating that a Labour-SNP coalition would result in the breakup of the union, and portrayed the Greens as far-left radicals who would shift the Labour government far out of the mainstream. Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, insisted that no coalition would be made with the SNP, but these statements raised questions on what would happen if such a move would be necessary to form a government. As for possible Tory partners, the DUP, still angry at Johnson's "sellout" of them during Brexit negotiations, said that they would not support a potential Tory government. Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, stated that he would not support the Conservatives while Johnson was leader, but if Johnson was to resign, then he may be willing to work with the Party, dependent, of course, on who succeeded him.

The SNP promised a second referendum on Scottish independence should they get into power, and indicated that this would be a precondition of any coalition or confidence-and-supply agreement with other parties.

The Liberal Democrats said that they would support a referendum on rejoining the European Union, but that this would not be demanded during coalition negotiations. In addition, the Liberal Democrats, together with the Green Party, and Reform UK, all promised a transition from the First past the post system of electing MPs to the Commons, to Proportional representation.

The Conservative Party pledged to "restore the independence of the House of Lords" by reintroducing the hereditary peerages abolished by Tony Blair, and reestablishing the Judicial Committee to replace the Supreme Court. In addition, the Conservatives promised to devolve greater powers to county and district councils

Other issues
The Conservatives promised to reduce restrictions on medicinal cannabis use, while the Liberal Democrats took one step further and advocated a complete decriminalisation and legalisation of the drug.

With regards to transport, Labour committed to a full renationalisation of the railway industry, whereas the Conservatives stuck by their new Great British Railways system. Both major parties supported the continued funding of HS2, whereas the Liberal Democrats opposed it. The Conservatives, as part of their "levelling-up" policy, committed to improving transport links outside of the south-east, such as by the rebuilding and re-opening of railways closed in the 1963 Beeching cuts. The Conservatives also included in their manifesto a commitment to building a third runway at Heathrow.

The Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Labour all supported a ban on fracking, whilst the Conservatives proposed approving fracking on a case-by-case basis.

Debates
ITV held a three-way debate between Johnson, Starmer and Davey on 16 March, which Johnson was widely expected to lose. Defying expectations, Starmer made a number of gaffes, including his infamous line "[Socialism] is not about public ownership of industries", while Johnson had a surprisingly strong performance. This debate halted Labour's momentum, and may have contributed to their shock defeat in the election. In addition, Davey had a unexpectedly strong performance, which boosted the Liberal Democrats' numbers in the aftermath.

Another debate was held by the BBC on 4 April, this time a head-to-head between Johnson and Starmer. In this debate Starmer was widely considered the winner, turning around his performance in the ITV debate, although its effect on polling was unclear. The BBC also held an episode of Question Time on 11 April, which was attended by Davey and Sturgeon, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Angela Rayner standing in for Johnson and Starmer respectively.

Endorsements
The following newspapers endorsed political parties running in the election in the following ways:

Results


'' Blue denotes constituencies won by Conservative candidates, red denotes constituencies won by Labour candidates, orange denotes constituencies won by Liberal Democrat candidates, light blue denotes constituencies won by Unionist parties in Northern Ireland, green denotes constituencies won by Nationalist parties in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The varying saturation of colours indicate where said candidate won by a margin of greater than 20%, between 20% and 5% and less than 5%, in order of most to least saturated.''

Defying initial expectations, the Conservatives managed to win their fifth consecutive election victory, albeit with a decrease of 13 seats from their victory in 2019. Despite some losses in Northern England, and an overall loss of seats in the region, the Conservatives managed to maintain many of their gains made in the so-called "red wall" region, even gaining some additional seats, particularly in Yorkshire. The primary beneficiary of the Conservative losses were the Liberal Democrats, who furthered their gains amongst traditional middle-class Conservative voters, who were put off by the seeming rightward turn of the party under Johnson's premiership. As such, despite declining support in the South-East, the Conservatives during this election were able to consolidate and further their support in East Anglia, the South-West, and particularly in the North.

The reason for the sudden Conservative swing on election day has been placed down to a number of factors. One such theory is the so-called "shy Tory" factor, whereby Conservative voters are less likely to report their voting intentions on polls. Another suggested idea is possibility that undecided voters tend to, on election day, vote for the Conservatives. Another theory, which was labelled by a number of polling companies such as Opinium as the most likely reason for the out-of-step polling, was that the Conservatives tend to do better among groups with higher turnout, such as older and middle-class voters, whereas predominantly Labour demographics, such as young people and ethnic minorities.

Another theory that has been put forward is that Keir Starmer received near-universal negative coverage from the press and print media, with The Sun, The Daily Mail, The Daily Telegraph, and The Daily Express all displaying overwhelmingly negative images of the Labour leader. Of Britain's major newspapers, only The Guardian and The Mirror endorsed Labour.