2018 Conservative Party leadership election

The 2018 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when David Cameron announced on 24 May 2018 that he would resign as Leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister once a successor had been elected. Nominations opened on 10 June; 10 candidates were nominated. The first ballot of Members of Parliament (MPs) took place on 13 June, with a second ballot of MPs also taking place on 20 June, after the reduction in the number of candidates to two. The final ballot occurred between the two remaining candidates, Chancellor George Osborne, and former Mayor of London Boris Johnson, with Johnson winning narrowly over Osborne.

Speculation about a leadership election first arose following Cameron's announcement shortly before the 2014 general election that he intended not to run for a third term in office. Subsequently, speculation began surrounding a possible successor, with Osborne, Johnson, Home Secretary Theresa May, and Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, among others being cast as possible successors. These increased as the next general election approached, with the expectation that Cameron would resign before it was due to be called in May 2019.

Johnson would subsequently succeed Cameron as Leader of the Conservative Party and as Prime Minister, taking office on 23 July 2018.

Background
David Cameron, leader of the Conservative Party since 2005 oversaw a landslide victory for the Conservatives in the 2009 general election, with a majority of 144, the largest majority for any party since 2001 and an equal majority to that obtained by Margaret Thatcher in 1983, and Cameron succeeded the Labour leader Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.

2014 general election and Cameron's second term
Cameron stated on 23 March 2014 that he would not serve a third term as Prime Minister if he was re-elected in the upcoming election, subsequently sparking media speculation about a possible successor as leader of the Conservative Party. A number of candidates were floated by the media, such as Chancellor George Osborne, Justice Secretary Michael Gove, and Home Secretary Theresa May. Former Mayor of London and prominent Eurosceptic backbencher Boris Johnson was also considered as a candidate, but when asked if he would run in the event he responded by saying that he "had more chance of being decapitated by a flying frisbee or finding Elvis".

Despite the strong economic situation, the so-called "Osborne Boom", Cameron himself was increasingly unpopular amongst the Conservative membership, particularly on the right of the party, in particular regarding conflicts over immigration, Europe and social issues. Amongst the British public as well, there was growing Euroscepticism, with support for leaving the EU reaching a peak of 54% in mid-2015, according to one YouGov poll, largely due to the ongoing migrant crisis and fears of mass immigration. In addition, the government faced diminishing popularity amongst the broader public as well, due to a variety of scandals, such as the Panama Papers scandal in which Cameron was implicated, and the Grenfell tower fire in June 2017. By early 2018 the government had only a 5-3% lead ahead of Labour, led by Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn, largely due to growing support for UKIP, a right-wing Eurosceptic party, taking voters away from the Conservatives. By May 2018, Cameron was rated the least popular out of the Cabinet ministers, both with Conservative members and the public, with a favourability rating of -29% and -14% respectively. By contrast, Osborne was considered the most popular, with an approval rating of +59%, according to YouGov.

A major hit to Cameron's authority came again in December 2017, when the Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless, Conservative MPs for Clacton and Rochester and Strood respectively, both defected to UKIP, giving the party its first representation in the House of Commons. This was viewed by many in the media, such as The Spectator's Ross Clark as an encapsulation of the discontent among Eurosceptic Conservatives over Cameron's pro-EU direction, and broader disappointment with the "over-moderate" nature of the government in general. After a poor performance in the 2017 local elections, there were rumours that Cameron could face a no-confidence vote in his leadership if he did not resign soon.

With speculation regarding Cameron's resignation, a number of senior figures within the party were said to be preparing for a leadership contest. Among those considered to be angling for a leadership bid were the Chancellor George Osborne, Justice Secretary Michael Gove and junior minister Dominic Raab, the latter of which was called a "rising star of the Tory right" in The Telegraph. In the 2018 local elections in May, the Conservatives had a poor result, having a net loss of over 400 councillors, primarily to UKIP and the Liberal Democrats. Cameron subsequently reiterated his intention to resign before the next election in the aftermath, which was due for May the next year. Tim Shipman of the The Sunday Times warned that the subsequent leadership election could end up being "a bloody battle between the pro-EU and Eurosceptic factions", and speculated that it could be "perhaps the final duel in a Tory civil war going back to the days of Mrs. Thatcher", whilst others[who?] even suggested that the contentiousness of the leadership election could lead to a full-blown split in the party, similar to what happened to the Liberals in 1918. On 24 May, to the shock of many in the media and within his own party, Cameron announced his resignation as leader of the Conservative Party, effective on June 7 2018.

Nominated
The following four MPs were nominated on 10 June. Each candidate needed the nomination of at least eight MPs, but only the proposer and seconder were made public.

Withdrew
The following MPs announced that they would seek the leadership of the Conservative Party but subsequently did not stand, or withdrew from the race, due to insufficient support or other reasons:

Prior to the first ballot

 * Dominic Raab, Minister of State for Courts and Justice since 2017 and MP for Esher and Walton since 2010. (endorsed Johnson)
 * Sam Gyimah, Universities Minister (2018) and MP for East Surrey since 2010.

Publicly expressed interest
The following MPs publicly expressed interest in the leadership of the Conservative Party but subsequently declined to stand:
 * Steve Baker, Deputy Chair of the European Research Group since 2017 and MP for Wycombe since 2010 (endorsed Johnson)
 * Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee since 2010 and MP for Altrincham and Sale West since 1997
 * Tobias Ellwood, Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Defence People and Veterans since 2017 (endorsed Stewart)
 * Liam Fox, International Trade Secretary since 2016 and MP for North Somerset since 1992 (endorsed Gove)
 * Justice Greening, Education Secretary (2016–2018) and MP for Putney since 2005
 * Priti Patel, International Development Secretary (2016–2017) and MP for Witham since 2010 (endorsed Johnson)
 * Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the European Research Group since 2017 and MP for North East Somerset since 2010 (endorsed Johnson)

The candidates themselves came under some criticism, with The Observer noting that "out of the four candidates in the race, two are Old Etonians, and all four were educated at private schools", and suggesting that "the background and education of the candidates is as much evidence as any that, for the most part, the Tories are still run by Iain Macleod's 'magic circle' of Old Etonians, 55 years after that group conspired to elect the Earl of Home as Tory leader". This assessment was criticised by chair of the ERG Jacob Rees-Mogg, himself an Old Etonian, who called The Observer's statements "reverse snobbery", and said he believed that "the country would not be better run by potted plants", which some individuals and news outlets interpreted as classism.

Campaign
At the beginning of the campaign, the primary contest was regarded to be between Osborne on the moderate, pro-EU side of the party, and Johnson and Gove on the right-wing, Eurosceptic wing. With the addition of Rory Stewart's candidacy, the situation was assessed by Ben Riley-Smith of the Telegraph as being a "three-and-a-half man race". The campaign mostly centred around the issues of Europe, immigration, the economy and taxes. Osborne warned that a Gove or Johnson leadership would result in an "exodus" of pro-EU Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, whilst the latter two argued that a greater risk came from a loss of support to the Eurosceptic UKIP.

European Union
Gove, Johnson and Osborne all promised a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, although Osborne pledged that in such a referendum his government would take an explicitly pro-remain stance, with the former two candidates saying that the government would remain neutral but they would personally campaign for the pro-leave side during the campaign. Osborne suggested that he would seek to renegotiate the terms of the UK's membership beforehand, and then have the referendum between remaining under the current terms, remaining under the renegotiated terms, and leaving the EU entirely. Johnson called such a plan "absurd", claiming that the EU would not accept any "fundamental changes to our membership terms". According to a BBC interview, Gove disagreed with Johnson's view, but did not support Osborne's suggestion.

Economy
All of the four candidates supported additional cuts to public services, albeit to different extents. Stewart emphasised that he wanted to end austerity "as soon as possible" and stated that the deficit at the time of £30 billion was "acceptable". Osborne, the most pro-austerity of the candidates stuck to his pledge to eliminate the deficit by 2020, and said he would not reverse the cuts once public finances improved, calling such an idea "irresponsible". Johnson said he would prioritise lowering taxes above raising spending, but would be open to either if the deficit "was good enough". Gove said he would maintain the Government's austerity programme. Osborne pledged a reduction in the corporate tax rate from 17% to 15%, whilst Johnson promised to eliminate inheritance tax and to cut all rates of income tax by 2%, and raise the threshold to £25,000.

Immigration
Gove and Osborne maintained Cameron's pledge from the 2014 election to reduce net immigration below 100,000 per year. Stewart said he believed that the level of immigration was acceptable at the moment, and that whilst there "are some who have legitimate concerns over immigration", "many are simply xenophobic and intolerant". Subsequently, Stewart was called on to retract his statement by many Conservative MPs and members of the public, which he did two days later, calling his remarks "stupid and insensitive". Boris Johnson said that "the number-one priority of my government, when it comes to immigration, will be to implement a points-based Australian style system", claiming that such a scheme would allow high-skilled and educated migrants to get into Britain whilst also preventing massive levels of unskilled immigrants flooding into the country. Ross Clark in The Spectator said that out of all the candidates, Johnson had the most liberal immigration plan, despite the latter's hardline Eurosceptic views.

Other issues
Stewart promised a free vote among Tory MPs on legalising fox hunting, and stated that he would personally support such a move.

Gove and Osborne both promised to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, with the former also stating he would recognise the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. This attracted criticism from Stewart, who said that such a move would "contravene the UN's own opinion on the subject" and called the suggestion "hollow".

Johnson said that he would legalise medicinal use of cannabis, and "look into" legalising its recreational use.

Campaign events
A major scandal occurred in the middle of the campaign, with Michael Gove admitting to having taken cocaine twenty years previously. Considering his previous hardline stance on drug use as Justice Secretary, as well as his criticism of Boris Johnson's plan to legalise cannabis as "giving a free pass to druggies", this was viewed by many in the media and the public as hypocritical. Subsequently, Gove's support diminished significantly, with many of his prior supporters withdrawing their endorsements. The net effect of the scandal, in the words of The Spectator's Stephen Daisley, was to "diminish Gove's candidacy, already struggling to differentiate itself from Johnson's, to a mere protest vote from Eurosceptics who do not want to support Boris". The New Statesman's Charlotte Ivers noted that the loss of support for Gove came "not due to outrage at his drug use, but the perception that the outrage from it would result in Boris becoming the primary Eurosceptic candidate and probable leader, causing them to back him out of cynical self-interest" thereby "creating a self-fulfilling prophecy". Opinion polling immediately after the scandal showed that, against Osborne, 34% of Conservative members would vote for him, down from 41% directly before.

First ballot
No candidate obtained a majority, with Boris Johnson gaining the most votes, followed closely by George Osborne. Rory Stewart had a surprisingly strong performance, whereas Michael Gove, widely expected to gain around 80 MPs throughout most of the campaign, was polled as an embarrassing third, far the two main candidates of Johnson and Osborne. As no candidate had the required majority of 15%, the two least popular candidates, Stewart and Gove, were eliminated, and the second ballot would occur finally between Osborne and Johnson. Gove would go on to endorse Johnson, whereas Stewart declined to endorse either candidate, instead encouraging his supporters to spoil their ballots.

Second ballot
Johnson narrowly secured the required 15% majority, meaning that he would go on to become Leader of the Conservative Party. Had just three MPs changed their vote, it would have been enough to deny Johnson this victory and send the vote to a members' ballot, which would have been the first time that Conservative Party members directly elected the Prime Minister. Osborne subsquently conceded and noted in his concession speech that "we are all Conservatives, and regardless of division on certain issues, we can always stand together in our common goals of a sound economy, opportunity for all hardworking people, and national security". This was regarded by some in the media as a way of "sucking up to Johnson" in the hopes that he would offer Osborne the Chancellorship, or another major ministerial post. However, Osborne subsequently disspelled those rumours, stating his intention to become a solely backbench MP. Incumbent leader David Cameron subsequently congratulated Johnson, as did a number of other Conservative politicians and world leaders.

Reaction
The Sun, The Daily Telegraph, The Daily Mail and The Daily Express, which had all endorsed Johnson's candidacy, celebrated his victory in the leadership election, with The Sun running a front page headlined 'Johnsun' which made reference to both his election victory and the heatwave going on on the day. The Spectator noted that Johnson's victory marked a clear shift away from the politics of Cameron and Osborne, suggesting that the party had been shifted away from the centre by the outcome. James Forsyth stated that he believed that the primary reason for Johnson's victory was primarily Osborne failing to rally former Stewart and Gove supporters around his campaign, as an alternative to the strongly Eurosceptic Johnson.

Labour leader and Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn said that Johnson's victory represented "a triumph for the elitist, xenophobic, and wealthy in society", and called for an immediate general election. UKIP leader Nigel Farage suggested the possibility of an electoral pact between UKIP and the Conservatives in the upcoming election, whilst Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable called Johnson's pledge for a referendum on Europe "pandering to racists and xenophobes", a statement that he later retracted and apologised for.

United States President Hillary Clinton congratulated Johnson on his victory, whilst also expressing concern about the latter's Eurosceptic tendencies. Among the other congratulations were French President Francois Fillon, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.