2022 Senate Elections (Pear's future)

The 2022 United States Senate Elections took place in the middle of President Joe Biden's first term, although Biden was unpopular nationwide, the Republicans were as well, largely due to poor candidate quality and Democratic voter enthusiasm being spiked due to the controversial Supreme Court decision Dobbs v. Jackson. The final result was close, with Republicans narrowly winning the Senate. The Republicans also gained control of the House of Representatives in this election cycle, however Democrats made minor gains in the governor races.

Following Glenn Youngkin's upset victory in the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial election a year earlier, many predicted the Republicans would do well in this election cycle. However, during the summer Democrats gained momentum. Republicans were also weakened by having to defend 6 open seats, including a special election in Oklahoma where incumbent Senator Jim Inhofe resigned, whereas Democrats only had one open seat. In the end, Republicans defeated incumbents Raphael Warnock in Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, whilst Democrats won the open seat in Pennsylvania held by Republican Senator Pat Toomey. This gave the Republicans a narrow net one gain in the Senate, enough for a narrow Republican majority in the chamber.

The results of the Election encouraged President Biden and the Democrats to negotiate with Moderate Republican Senators on bills. This helped Biden's approval ratings and likely helped him win re-election in November.

Closest races
12 races had a margin of victory under 10%:

Alaska
Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski ran for re-election to a fourth term in office. Murkowski received a competitive re-election from Kelly Thsibaka, another Republican who was endorsed by President Trump and other more conservative figures. Despite this, Murkowski won, largely due to Alaska's new Ranked Choice Voting system.

Arizona
Incumbent Senator Mark Kelly ran for re-election to a second term in office. Kelly faced Republican Blake Masters, a businessman. Although the race was originally seen as competitive, Kelly showed a dominant lead in polls and ultimately beat Masters in the general election.

Colorado
Incumbent Senator Michael Bennet defeated businessman Joe O'Dea to win a third term. Although Bennet was originally expected to win by a massive margin, the final results were quite close, with Bennet winning by a narrow 4.6 percent margin.

Georgia
Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock ran for re-election for a second term. In one of the most competitive elections of the cycle, Warnock faced Republican Hershel Walker. Although Walker had originally held the lead for most of the spring, Warnock's strength grew in the summer. By November, the race seemed like a dead tie. At the end, Walker narrowly won with around a fifth of a percentage point.

Nevada
Incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto ran for re-election to a second term in office. Masto was defeated by former Nevada Attorney General and 2018 Gubernatorial Nominee Adam Laxalt by a very narrow margin.

New Hampshire
Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan won re-election to a second term, defeating Brigadier general Don Bolduc by a 5 point margin.

North Carolina
Incumbent Senator Richard Burr decided to retire instead of running for a fourth term in office. US Representative Ted Budd won the open seat.

Ohio
Incumbent Senator Rob Portman decided to retire. Republican author J.D. Vance won the open seat for Republicans, defeating US Representative Tim Ryan in a narrow race.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey decided to retire. Democrat John Fetterman won the open seat, defeating surgeon and celebrity Mehmet Oz by a 3 point margin.