1948 United States Presidential Election (Stars and Stripes Forever)

The 1948 United States Presidential Election was the 41st Quadrennial Presidential Election. It was held on Tuesday, November 2, 1948. The Republican ticket of General Douglas MacArthur and Senator Robert Taft defeated incumbent Democratic President Harry Truman, in what is considered one of the greatest political upsets in American history.

Truman had ascended to the presidency in April 1945 after the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Defeating attempts to drop him from the ticket, Truman won the presidential nomination at the 1948 Democratic National Convention. The Democratic convention's civil rights plank caused a walk-out by several Southern delegates, who launched a third-party "Dixiecrat" ticket led by Governor Strom Thurmond of South Carolina. The Dixiecrats hoped to win enough electoral votes to force a contingent election in the House of Representatives, where they could extract concessions from either MacArthur or Truman in exchange for their support. Truman also faced a challenge from his party in the form of former Vice President Henry A. Wallace, who launched the Progressive Party and challenged Truman's confrontational Cold War policies. MacArthur, extremely popular for his win of the Pacific theater of World War II was faced with a fierce battle from Governor Thomas Dewey. However, MacArthur energized his supporters in new ways, and selected Senator Robert A Taft as his running mate.

MacArthur ran a tough campaign, helping to energize Republicans. He also was strongly against the New Deal, but chose to limit his negative talk of it. Truman also ran a hard campaign, but failed to gain enough midwestern support. MacArthur heavily criticized Truman, running a massive campaign under the slogan of "Win With Mac."

Despite the three-way split in the Democratic Party, many official predictions had MacArthur losing hugely, as Truman was Vice President to a popular president. Instead, MacArthur defied all expectations by winning in a landslide victory. Republicans also maintained control of both chambers of Congress. Thus, the election affirmed the status of the Republican Party as America's majority party.

Republican Party Nomination
Early on in the primaries, the main candidates were Governor Thomas Dewey of New York and Senator Robert Taft of Ohio. Dewey was the leader of the party's more moderate and liberal eastern wing, whilst Taft was the leader of the more conservative midwestern wing. Many expected Dewey to win the nomination, as he was considered a safe candidate for the Republicans. However, most Republicans disliked him on a personal level, describing him as cold and stiff. However, the "surprise" candidate was General Douglas MacArthur. While MacArthur had flirted with politics before in 1944, he hadn't made a serious campaign, as he was busy fighting in Asia at the time. However, MacArthur, at the time serving as the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers in Japan, was now about to make a serious campaign effort. MacArthur's popularity was soaring, and he soon announced his campaign. He quickly became a close ally of Taft, with the latter campaigning for him.

However, Dewey seemed determined to gain the nomination, and in April of 1948 he and MacArthur engaged in the first ever radio debate between presidential candidates. An estimated 40 million people listened. MacArthur was generally considered the winner of the debate, and went on to extensively campaign, spending over $200,000 on billboards, radio spots, and half-hour broadcasts. He also extensively campaigned in Oregon during short trips to the mainland, though it was difficult as he had to spend most of his time in Japan. Taft also extensively campaigned for MacArthur, however the idea of running mate had not yet been suggested.

Republican Convention
The 1948 Republican National Convention was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It was the first presidential convention to be shown on national television. At this time, there were 27 television stations in full operation in the U.S. and an estimated 350,000 TV sets in the whole country. Dewey, worried of the scope of the MacArthur campaign, met in a hotel room with Governor Harold Stassen and urged him to withdraw from the race and endorse him to help stop MacArthur, but he refused. Soon, MacArthur was only 33 votes short of victory, and Dewey once again urged Stassen to endorse him. Stassen refused again, and Dewey, accepting defeat, wrote a concession speech and had it read to the convention during the third round of balloting.

MacArthur, pleased at his win, selected Taft to be his running mate, which reportedly surprised him. As he wrote in his autobiography "And then he [MacArthur] turned to me and said 'Rob, do you want to be Vice President?'" Following the convention, most political experts in the news media rated the Republican ticket as an almost certain loser, citing MacArthur's lack of political experience.

Democratic Party Nominee
On July 12, the Democratic National Convention convened in Philadelphia in the same arena where the Republicans had met a few weeks earlier. Spirits were high, as, despite losing both chambers of Congress in the 1946 Midterm Elections, the Democrats saw the MacArthur/Taft campaign as weak, a view shared by most of the newsmedia. Despite this early confidence, former Vice President Henry Wallace's new Progressive Party was ever growing, and there were worries that Wallace would garner enough votes to hand the large Midwestern states to MacArthur. In the South, Segregationists were angered by the growing voice of black votes outside the South, and hopes that President Truman would reverse this course were dashed in 1947, when he appointed a civil rights commission, convinced Southern Segregationists that to keep their voice heard, they had to form a third-party.

Despite Truman and his inner circle seeming to be almost oblivious of his unpopularity, a growing number of Democratic leaders began to realize how hated their incumbent was, and many suggested "dumping" Truman from the Democratic ticket and selecting and more popular candidate. However, none of them could agree on a singular candidate to endorse, similar to the problem that faced Thomas Dewey in the Republican Convention.

Democratic Convention
At the Democratic Convention, Truman was hesitant to show more open support for Civil Rights, however, he eventually did, and voiced strong support for civil rights that he had expressed at the NAACP convention in 1947. However, this strong support angered many Southern Democrats, and former Texas Governor Dan Moody proposed a plank that favored state's rights. Wisconsin Representative Andrew Biemiller proposed a strong civil rights plank that was more direct in its language than Truman's earlier proposal.

Truman, against the words of his advisors, chose to fully endorse Biemiller. With this, three dozen Southern delegates, including South Carolina governor Strom Thurmond, walked out of the convention. Those that remained nominated Senator Richard Russell Jr from Georgia as an attempt to rebuke Truman. Despite this, Truman was near-unanimously nominated, with only the remaining Southerns dissenting.

Progressive Party Nomination
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party fragmented. A new Progressive Party (a name used by both Theodore Roosevelt and Robert M. La Follette) was created once more in 1948 with the nomination of Henry A. Wallace, who had served as Secretary of Agriculture, Commerce, and Vice President under Franklin Roosevelt. In 1946, President Truman fired Wallace as Secretary of Commerce after Wallace opposed the former's firm anti-Soviet moves in the Cold War. Wallace's 1948 platform opposed Truman's Cold War stances, including the Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan. It also backed a minimum wage and greater restrictions on businesses.

Wallace was often accused of supporting communists, and did little to stop such accusations. The Wallace/Taylor Ticket finished fourth in the election, winning a scant few counties in Wisconsin and Ohio. After the election, the party grew, eventually consolidating itself to local elections, winning positions in the Senate, House and three state governorships by 1960. The party eventually kicked out Wallace and adopted a stance against communism.

States' Rights Democratic Party nomination
Southern Democrats became increasingly disillusioned with the party as President Truman continued showing support for civil rights, especially following his order racially integrating the US Armed Forces and a civil rights message he sent to Congress in February of 1948. At the Southern Governor's Conference in Wakulla Springs, Florida, on February 6, Mississippi Governor Fielding Wright proposed the formation of a new third party to protect racial segregation in the South. On May 10, 1948, the governors of the eleven former Confederate states met in Jackson, Mississippi, to discuss their concerns over the growing civil rights movement, and ways they could collectively oppose it.

The Southern Democrats who had walked out of the Democratic National Convention to protest the civil rights plank approved by the convention, and supported by Truman, promptly met at Municipal Auditorium in Birmingham, Alabama, on July 17, 1948, and formed a brand-new political party, which they named the States' Rights Democratic Party, or the "Dixiecrats." The Dixiecrats's main goal was continuing the policy of racial segregation in the south. Governor Thurmond, who had led the walk-out, became the party's presidential nominee. Their plan was to take enough Southern states from Truman to force a contingent election in the House of Representatives under the provisions of the Twelfth Amendment, where they could convince either Truman or MacArthur to support them on racial issues, in turn winning the support of the Dixiecrats. Even if MacArthur won the election outright, the Dixiecrats hoped their defeat would prove to Truman that the Democrats needed the Southern States support, and that would help them weaken the pro-civil rights stance of northern and western Democrats.

The party did rather well in the South, and it it may have cost Truman key electoral votes he needed to win. While this did work, and the Democrats briefly fluttered away from Civil Rights, by the late 1950s the Democrats had swung back to support the issue, rendering any success of the Dixiecrats null and void. In several states, Thurmond was put on the ballot as the Democratic nominee, with Truman being left off.

Fall Campaign
Despite the fatal three-way split in the Democratic Party, MacArthur's political inexperience was seen as a sign of definite failure by Democratic leaders. Most also believed that the Dixiecrats and Progressives wouldn't garner enough votes to harm Truman's chances. However, Truman's popularity continued to sink, and voters seemed increasingly inclined to elect a military man in a time of chaos such as the post-WWII era.

Truman himself campaigned extensively using partisan attacks on MacArthur and the Republican-controlled 80th Congress. On October 5, 1948, In a show of extensive petty partisan politics, Truman fired MacArthur from his position as General of the Army. This move caused extensive uproar from the people, with multiple newspapers attacking Truman, and one popular political cartoon depicted Truman as an infant in a diaper pointing at MacArthur and wailing "You are fired because of your candidacy!" This cartoon became one of the most well-known cartoons in America, and was even turned into a short animated film after the election.

MacArthur, meanwhile, returned these attacks in a vicious manner, but was sure to keep himself above stooping to certain lows. MacArthur frequently pointed out the high taxes and soaring inflation over the last few years. Truman also attempted to stoke fears of a second Great Depression under a Republican administration, even going so far as to say that communists wanted a Republican president so a second Great Depression would happen, and thus they could push their views. MacArthur returned these attacks in his own way, and Taft referred to Truman as a "partisan hack who'd sooner weaken America's world standing than see a Republican be a top general." In reference to Truman's firing of MacArthur.

Truman nicknamed the Republican-controlled 80th Congress the "worst" and "do-nothing" Congress, remarks which angered Republican congressional leaders, and even angered some Democratic leaders, who did not want their party seen as that of petty partisans. MacArthur, while not a Congressman, responded to these attacks by saying: "Our chief executive would sooner shout insults at Congress then actually work to better the nation. President Truman is a man who cares little for the affairs of actually running a nation, instead he prefers to engage in partisan debates, which only seek to divide our nation and bog down Congress."

In the final weeks of the campaign, American movie theaters agreed to play two short newsreel-like campaign films in support of the two major candidates. The MacArthur film, shot professionally on a high budget, wowed audiences, while the Truman film was hastily assembled by a campaign perpetually strapped for cash, and relied heavily on public domain and newsreel footage of the President. In the end, the MacArthur film greatly boosted MacArthur's popularity, with the Truman film being the final nail in the coffin for a dying campaign.

Despite the film's failure, Truman and his subordinates continued to hold onto the belief that they could win, despite polls showing MacArthur gaining and gaining on Truman, however, Truman seemed deaf to this, even as his advisors pointed out the massive success of the Dixiecrats in the South, which would deprive the Democrats of important southern states.

Also deaf to these developments was the newsmedia. The media still predicted a Truman win, despite eventually having to add Dixiecrats to their predictions. Many newspapers began writing articles to be printed the morning after the election speculating about the future of Truman's presidency. For its television coverage, NBC News had constructed a large cardboard model of the White House containing two red donkeys that would pop out when NBC announced Truman's victory, since MacArthur's defeat was considered certain by the media, it contained no blue elephants.

Results
On Election Night, MacArthur, his family, and campaign staff gathered at the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City to await the returns. Truman, aided by the Secret Service, snuck away from reporters covering him in Kansas City and rode to nearby Excelsior Springs, Missouri. There, he took a room at the Elm Hotel, had dinner and went to sleep. As the votes came in, Truman initially had a lead, however, as the night went on, MacArthur began to gain a large lead, especially in the western states.

MacArthur went to sleep after hearing on the radio that Truman had a lead, he told his wife "This may all be for naught." However, MacArthur then awoke at midnight and turned on the radio. He heard that he had gained a lead over Truman, and that Thurmond had gained a large amount of votes in the South. He went to sleep again, then woke up at 4am to hear that he was well ahead in the electoral vote and popular vote. He told his wife "It seems like we may be moving soon." Truman, meanwhile, woke up at around 4am and realized he was losing significantly. He stayed up the rest of the night analyzing the votes as they came in, and by 10:30am, was convinced he had lost, at 11:14am, he sent a gracious concession telegram to MacArthur.

The Chicago Daily Tribune, so sure of Truman's victory, that on Tuesday afternoon, before any polls closed, it printed "TRUMAN DEFEATS MACARTHUR" as its headline for the following day. Following this, MacArthur was photographed grinning with a cigar in his mouth, holding up a copy of the paper.

The election followed a similar pattern to many elections across the world, as Truman, a war leader, had been voted out, similar to Winston Churchill and Charles De Gualle.

Truman's loss, having been studied for decades, was mostly likely caused by a number of factors. For one, Truman's popularity was sinking, and he had little to campaign upon besides "I won the war.", and his inability to truly speak out on issues at the time besides civil rights greatly harmed his chances. He also wasn't an elected President, having only become President after the death of Franklin Roosevelt. Truman also had little experience on the world stage, and Roosevelt's stance towards the Soviets had effectively let them take Eastern Europe, with Truman doing little to try to reverse this after he became President. MacArthur, meanwhile, had won the entire Pacific Front himself, and had already begun the process of rebuilding Japan into a democracy. He also harbored a burning passionate hatred for communism, and gave fiery speeches against it.

After nearly twenty years of Democratic rule, citizens were becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the party, including one anonymous New York resident who Truman during a campaign rally "After all these years, where is the utopia we were promised?" MacArthur campaigned heavily off the soaring inflation in recent years, and the insanely high taxes at the time.

Close states
Margin of victory less than 1% (138 electoral votes):
 * 1) Ohio, 0.24% (7,107 votes)
 * 2) California, 0.44% (17,865 votes)
 * 3) Indiana, 0.80% (13,246 votes)
 * 4) Illinois, 0.84% (33,612 votes)
 * 5) New York, 0.98% (60,959 votes)

Margin of victory less than 5% (131 electoral votes):
 * 1) Delaware, 1.28% (1,775 votes)
 * 2) Maryland, 1.39% (8,293 votes)
 * 3) Connecticut, 1.64% (14,457 votes)
 * 4) Michigan, 1.67% (35,147 votes)
 * 5) Iowa, 2.73% (28,362 votes)
 * 6) Idaho, 2.73% (5,856 votes)
 * 7) Nevada, 3.11% (1,934 votes)
 * 8) Oregon, 3.39% (17,757 votes)
 * 9) Pennsylvania, 4.01% (149,771 votes)
 * 10) Wyoming, 4.35% (4,407 votes)
 * 11) New Jersey, 4.39% (85,669 votes)
 * 12) Wisconsin, 4.41% (56,351 votes)
 * 13) South Dakota, 4.80% (11,998 votes)

Margin of victory between 5% and 10% (59 electoral votes):
 * 1) Colorado, 5.35% (27,574 votes)
 * 2) New Hampshire, 5.75% (13,304 votes)
 * 3) Virginia, 6.85% (28,716 votes)
 * 4) Nebraska, 8.31% (40,609 votes)
 * 5) North Dakota, 8.76% (19,327 votes)
 * 6) Utah, 8.96% (24,749 votes)
 * 7) Kansas, 9.02% (71,137 votes)
 * 8) Washington, 9.93% (89,850 votes)
 * 9) Montana, 9.94% (22,301 votes)
 * 10) Arizona, 9.97% (17,654 votes)