2052 United States Presidential Election (NCT Redux)

The 2052 United States Presidential Election was the 67th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 2052. The Democratic ticket of Apollo Astronomical and Martha Real received the most electoral and popular votes, but failed to secure an Electoral College majority, advancing Astronomical/Martha and Raygun/Cringe to a second round of voting set to be held November 26th, 2052.

In a competitive race for the Democratic nomination that nearly resulted in a contested convention, Apollo Astronomical, senator from Pennsylvania defeated his rivals of Representative Martha Real, Governor Gritz A. Fritz (also known as Gritzandfritz), former Vice President Jon Ossoff, and former Attorney General Snoo Modmaker. Astronomical chose one of his former rivals, Martha Real of Florida, to be his running mate. The Democratic National Convention's supposed "moderation" within their trade plank caused Gritz A. Fritz and his delegates to walk out of the convention, culminating in Fritz running as an Independent. Governor Raygun Stan of New York secured the Republican nomination with little opposition, and selected Senator Cringe of Illinois to be his running mate. Fritz hoped to win the election outright by advancing to the second round, or at least prevent Astronomical from becoming President.

Astronomical ran a high energy, concentrated campaign centered on rebuilding the original "Blue Wall", realizing the split Democratic vote would narrow his path to victory heavily. Raygun ran a relatively confident and passive campaign, expecting the Democratic split to boost his chances within the Electoral College. Despite this, he campaigned for several Republican candidates for congress, which contributed to the republicans retaking the house on Election Day. However, his campaigning failed to secure the senate, with Astro’s plurality in the election being a significant boost for democrats. Gritzandfritz ran an grassroots campaign focused on the rust belt and western sunbelt, and saw flipping California as one of the keys to victory. Although polling showed Gritzandfritz taking plenty of votes from Raygun as well, many political models and polling indicated that Raygun would defeat both Astronomical and Gritzandfritz within the first round.

Defying these predictions, Astronomical secured enough electoral votes to advance to the second round, even surpassing Raygun in electoral votes. The Astronomical/Martha ticket won a plurality of the popular vote as well, thanks in part due to sizeable margins in California, New York, and Pennsylvania. Gritzandfritz was eliminated from the second round of voting, and chose to endorse Astronomical for the second round.

Democratic Party
Initially, former Vice President Jon Ossoff, who was the Democratic nominee in 2048 was widely seen as the frontrunner. However, the failure to prevent DecstarG's independent Presidential campaign from winning made his candidacy this time perceived as a "long-shot". President DecstarG had worked with the Democratic Congress to some degree during his administration, but began to split over policy differences. Due to the inability to work with Congress, DecstarG announced on September 1st, 2051 that he would not seek another term in office. While DecstarG did not formally endorse anyone, his speech implied that he was hoping Apollo Astronomical, Senator from Pennsylvania would run. Initially, Astronomical had no intent on running, choosing instead to focus on expanding the Democratic majority in the Senate so he could have the votes to become the Senate Majority Leader. After DecstarG's speech, and discussion with other Pennsylvanian congressmen, Astronomical announced he was running on September 25th, 2051, well after Ossoff, Martha, Gritzandfritz, and Snoo announced they were running. Incumbent Vice President Danxv33 considered running for the Democratic Nomination. However, he ultimately decided not to run for President, and chose to endorse Astronomical, even hosting rallies with him in Minnesota. Snoo dropped out before the primaries began, and endorsed Gritzandfritz. In the Nevada primary, Gritzandfritz secured a plurality of the delegates and narrowly won the popular vote, but a strong showing by Astronomical in the New Jersey primary kept the race competitive. Martha was able to win South Carolina in what many saw as an upset, in large part due to the fact that polling showed Gritzandfritz winning. During Super Tuesday, Astronomical won many northern primaries, while Gritzafritz was able to win many southern primaries. Crucially, Astronomical was able to tie with Gritzandfritz' in delegates in the California primary, and was able to win Texas.

After Super Tuesday, Martha and Ossoff, who only won contests in their home states, announced they were suspending their campaigns, with Martha endorsing Astronomical and Ossoff not endorsing anyone, leaving the contest to a two way race between Astronomical and Gritzandfritz. Due to the closeness of the race, some political models showed a contested convention, with the chance of neither candidate securing enough delegates being estimated around 50%. Astronomical defied expectations and was able to secure the nomination by winning spring primaries such as Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio by solid margins. Additionally, he won the crucial New York primary in June by a 8 point margin. With the delegate math against him, Gritzandfritz announced he was suspending his campaign to focus on convincing delegates to give him the position of running mate.

At the 2052 Democratic National Convention in Dallas, Texas, Astronomical's running mate shortlist was simply Gritzandfritz and Martha Real. Astronomical eventually selected Martha, to bring gender and regional diversity to the ticket. Additionally, Martha's home state of Florida was seen as competitive. Gritzandfritz, although frustrated by this loss, chose to instead focus his energy on affecting the official Democratic Platform. The convention was tense, but as the convention voted on a "balanced" trade platform, Gritzandfritz saw the campaign as unsalvageable, stormed out of the convention with 837 of his delegates, and announced he intended to run as an independent in the general election. Martha initially offered to give up her spot on the ticker in exchange for Gritzandfritz replacing her, but this offer was rejected. With this split in the Democratic party, many saw their chances of retaking the White House to be unlikely.

Platform
The Democratic Party platform has been described as "one of the most progressive platforms in modern history". On one of the biggest topics, the issue of Healthcare, the platform called for the shift from the public option system over to a universal, single-payer, national healthcare system over the course of 6 years. Many of the platform planks were passed by the convention by large margins, although the Universal Healthcare and Trade planks were met with some controversy and debate between the delegates. Vice Presidential Nominee Martha gave a speech invoking Hubert Humphrey's 1948 Democratic National Convention speech, saying "The time has come for America to step out of the shadow of for-profit healthcare, and to walk proudly into the modern, common sense establishment of a healthcare system for everyone", bringing enough delegates forward to vote for the plank. The platform calls for:


 * Establishment of a universal, single-payer national healthcare system.
 * Expansion of current green-energy programs and complete phase-out of non-renewable energy.
 * Increasing the minimum wage to $20 an Hour.
 * Establishment of new affordable housing programs.
 * Refined and streamlined tax system that would close loopholes and "protect working families from carrying the burden".
 * Expanding the tuition-free community college program to include all colleges and universities.
 * Statehood for Washington D.C, along with self determination for U.S overseas territories such as Puerto Rico and Guam.
 * A new Voting Rights Act that would restore previous provisions that were struck down.
 * A new Civil Rights Act that would focus on enshrining transgender rights within law.
 * Support for Kazakhstan in the Russo-Kazakh War
 * A $4 Trillion Infrastructure Bill focused on improving a variety of technology across the nation.
 * "Sensible balance between trading with other nations and protecting our nation's industry".
 * Government programs that would "establish transparency and trust in our institutions"
 * Lowering the age of Social Security and ensuring the program's continuation.
 * Comprehensive criminal justice reform
 * Research into the establishment of a UBI (Universal Basic Income) program to help combat automation.
 * More funding for NASA's outer space programs.

Most of the other provisions were adopted with little to no opposition, as the Democratic Party hailed it has formed "the most progressive and transformative platform ever." Astronomical vowed to fulfill these campaign promises, with the goal of "bringing America into the 21st century and preparing us for the challenges that we will face beyond." DecstarG applauded the platform, and formally endorsed the Astro/Martha ticket shortly after the convention. As Gritzandfritz ran an independent campaign for President, many of his policy positions were similar to those called by the Democratic Platform, albeit with a heavily protectionist stance on trade and differences on the college, tax and NASA planks.

Republican Party
After the disastrous defeat of Barron Trump in the 2048 election to the combined votes of DecstarG and Jon Ossoff, the Republican Party entered the new election season heavily divided and lacked major funding in the face of a more left leaning populace. Raygun, winning the New York governorship in a massive upset against Snoo Modmaker, quickly rose to become essentially the only major GOP candidate. After a close win in Iowa against NotGerald Ford, a right leaning representative from California, and a blowout win in New Hampshire, where he received 90% of the vote, Raygun became the presumptive nominee. Ford continued to pick up delegates in more conservative states, and Senator Cringe briefly made an effort to get the nomination, in which he only somewhat contested Illinois. Neither of these candidacies made any significant ground.

Both Ford and Cringe dropped out towards the end of the primaries. At the 2052 RNC, Raygun's running mate shortlist was Senator Cringe, NotGerald Ford, Rep. Calvin Coolidge, and Sen. Totalen. After an easy ascent to the nomination, Raygun picked his political ally Senator Cringe, the leader of the younger more socially liberal and economically moderate wing of the party, and someone who won a deep blue state in an upset. While the ticket complimented each other well, Ford threatened to walk out of the convention similar to GritzandFritz with the democrats. However Raygun promised to take some orthodox stances to please the entire party, ending the feud and uniting the weakened party around Raygun.

Platform
The Republican platform tacked significantly to the center despite the main tickets promises. While it faced some stiff resistance, the main planks ultimately passed through. The platform calls for:


 * Supporting the passage of a “Balanced Budget Amendment” to the U.S. Constitution, provided that the budget is balanced exclusively by cutting expenditures, and not by raising taxes.
 * Expansion of current green-energy programs and gradual phase-out of non-renewable energy.
 * Making minimum wage directly tied to the inflation rate. Preventing "radical hikes in wages, the small businesses of this country can stay afloat while the employees can be lifted out of poverty".
 * A referendum on Puerto Rican statehood.
 * Advanced military aid to Kazakhstan including drones, heavy weapons, and intelligence technologies, along with a strong stance against further Russian and Chinese interference.
 * Supporting the maintenance of a sufficient military to defend the United States against aggression, while cutting wasteful expenditures, to more accurately focus on making our military the most technologically capable in the world.
 * A new Civil Rights Act that would focus on enshrining transgender rights within law.
 * Support for Kazakhstan in the Russo-Kazakh War
 * A $4 Trillion Infrastructure Bill focused on improving a variety of technology across the nation.
 * Research ways to compensate workers for the rise of automation and artificial intelligence in the workplace
 * Work to further fund advancements in science and technology to move the United States further as the century continues.

Gritz A. Fritz
Upon the walk-out at the 2052 Democratic National Convention, Gritzandfritz and his delegates held a new convention in Fort Worth, Texas - right near the Democratic National Convention in Dallas. The platform adopted was described by some as "a bizarre populist mix of the 2 other convention platforms, akin to Ross Perot's campaign". Calls included a balanced budget amendment, universal healthcare, protectionist trade policies, and a pledge for Universal Basic Income. Gritzandfritz' main strategy was to sweep the West, spoil Astro's vote margin in the Rust Belt, and narrowly win Northeastern States in order to secure second place in the Electoral College. This strategy was considered "an electoral longshot" by political pundits, who predicted that Gritzandfritz would simply spoil the Electoral College enough to give Raygun Stan a large Electoral Vote margin (Some models showed him with 358 electoral votes). To some surprise, polling showed Gritzandfritz taking large swaths of voters from both Astro and Raygun. Additionally, Gritzandfritz had strong-armed support in certain states from respective state parties - a large part in why New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Nevada voted for Gritzandfritz - keeping the race a tossup.

National Democrats mostly called for Gritzandfritz to suspend the campaign, but these calls were dismissed. The convention picked Associate Attorney General Barack Huell-Ssein Obama of Arizona to be Gritzandfritz's running mate, who accepted the position on the ticket. He convinced prominent Arizona Democrats to abandon Astro's campaign and endorse the independent ticket, although prominent Democrat and former Senator Mark Kelly disavowed the ticket and reaffirmed the national Democratic Ticket.

First Round Campaign


Due to the split in the Democratic vote, the Raygun campaign sought to take a more moderate stance on issues in order to bring a sizeable electoral victory. The ticket also spent time endorsing and campaigning for Republican Congressional candidates, as Democrats still held a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, in part due to "the total collapse of the gerrymandered map in Texas", initially formed to benefit Republicans - before suburban trends caused all suburban seats to flip from Republican - usually by a small margin. Likewise, the Senate remained in Democratic hands - and some models showed Raygun winning the election while Democrats also could surpass the 60 Senate seats needed to end a filibuster. Raygun promised to "work with whatever Congress the people of the United States would elect", as privately he was unsure about Republican chances of flipping the House. Raygun and Senator Cringe also avoided directly attacking Astro or Gritzandfritz. NotGeraldFord, (who would have likely been tapped as the Attorney General under a Raygun administration) stated "We oughta let the 2 of them fight it out, while we take the case to the American people about our pledge for a smaller government with larger opportunities." The decision to avoid directly attacking either candidate was seen as a mistake by political experts, as it gave Astro the initiative to take the attack to Raygun.

Astronomical, widely seen as the underdog, chose a energetic, feisty campaign that "seemed straight out of Truman's 1948 playbook". He called on the Republican Senate to avoid using the filibuster to pass some of the legislation promised by both parties, such as the new Civil Rights Bill for transgendered individuals, and the referendum on Puerto Rico statehood. When the Republican minority in the Senate refused to let these bills be put to a vote, Astro used this as an attacking point towards Raygun and the Republican Party as a whole, calling them "Do-Nothing Republicans", who "should be voted out come November". Additionally, Astro spent much of the time after the convention hard on the campaign trail - by October, multiple appearances were daily. Martha, his running mate, was also sent across key battlegrounds, often wherever Astro wasn't at, in order to cover more ground.

Gritzandfritz, seeing the chances of winning outright in the first round as impossible, sought a concentrated campaign in the Sun Belt an New England, along with potential wins in Wisconsin and California. The populist campaign also sought to possibly flip plains states attracted to the platform's economic policies. Gritzandfritz also hoped a strong performance at the debates would perhaps increase support from both Astro and Raygun voters, and that the support from certain state parties would help him flip those states.

Across all 3 debates, polling indicated that Astronomical and Martha (during the Vice Presidential Debate) was seen by voters as having won the debates. Despite this, models still showed the chances of Astro winning, or even an electoral college deadlock, as unlikely. One pollster stated "Raygun Stan is almost as good as elected. I see no point in pretending this is some "neck and neck race". Neither Astro nor Gritzandfritz have a path to denying Raygun the 270 electoral votes needed to become President." This pollster stopped polling, until after the debates. The model's only change from last time showed Astro winning Pennsylvania, and had Raygun up with 310 electoral votes, 40 more than the 270 needed to win. As election day drew closer and closer, many Democratic pundits started to wonder if they should've asked Decstar to run for re-election, and began planning on how to take back the White House in 2056. Polling showed, however, that Astronomical lead against Reagan by around 7 points in a hypothetical second round. This data was, as one operative described it "The only thing keeping this campaign going".

When election day arrived, Astronomical returned to his home in Pennsylvania to await results with his families. Some of his campaign staff began looking for jobs elsewhere, lacking confidence in Astro's ability to win. As Astro later put it, it "sometimes felt that the only people who expected us to win were Martha and myself." Meanwhile, top Republicans such as NotGeraldFord had already purchased larger and nicer homes in Washington, DC.

First Round Results


On election night, the Raygun campaign felt quite confident early on. The first sign of trouble for them was when news networks were able to call the state of Pennsylvania for Astronomical with only about 20% of the vote in. To many Raygun operatives, this was a sign that the campaign had severely underestimated Astronomical, along with underestimating the effects of Gritzandfritz on their own campaign. Some relief for the Raygun campaign occurred when Florida was called for Raygun, but this relief quickly turned back into fear as Astronomical was estimated to have won Michigan and Minnesota, and the results from Texas and North Carolina were smaller than anticipated, especially among Latino voters. After New Mexico and Montana were called for Gritzandfritz, both the Raygun and Astronomical campaign realized that the results hinged on Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. In order to win an outright majority of the electoral votes, one of them would have to win all 3 states.

At around 1:00 AM EST, Arizona and Nevada were called simultaneously for Gritzandfritz, thereby leading to the projection that the Electoral College would not produce a majority, mandating a second round of voting between the top 2 candidates in the Electoral College on November 26th. The Astronomical campaign, starting the night with despair, reportedly partied for hours and hours upon hearing this news. Astronomical spoke to supporters around 1:30 AM EST, pledging to "fight just as hard during the second round as I did the first", asking Gritzandfritz supporters to join him, and pledging to respect the results of the second round no matter what. Raygun chose not to speak until the next day at around 11:00 AM EST, accepting the results of the first round and pleading to his supporters for unity no matter what the outcome of the second round would be.

Gritzandfritz, who was widely expected to not endorse either candidate and instead pledge to run again in 4 years, spoke to his supporters around 2:15 AM EST, and endorsed Astronomical in the second round of voting, stating "Although I disagree with his trade policies, Astronomical would make a better President than Raygun. I ask that you all vote Astronomical in the second round."

Second Round Campaign
A motivated and resurrected Astro campaign took the second round right to the swing states - hoping to flip Arizona, Wisconsin, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. Astronomical had requested Gritzandfritz campaign with him. Gritzandfritz was initially uneasy about this but eventually they made 3 campaign stops together in Florida and Arizona - all being well received. Astro and Martha continued their heavy campaign schedule, although Astro was forced to make a few events virtual after a foot injury caused by over-campaigning. In total, from November 6th until November 26th, there was not a single day where neither Astro or Martha made a campaign stop. Despite no longer being considered the underdogs, the Astro campaign continued a similar playbook from the first round - hammering the Republicans in Congress, attacking Raygun as being "too conservative", and pressing Astro's popularity among voters.

The Raygun campaign, completely surprised at the turn of events, did not have a strong campaign put together for the Second Round. As Raygun later put it in his autobiography, "It was very much last minute. A second round was sort of a nightmare scenario for us." Despite this, field operatives were quickly put in place across all the key swing states, and the campaign began to take a more aggressive approach similar to Astro's own. Ads such as "Astro - Out of this World and Out of his Mind" attempted to convince voters that Astro was a radical - the effects were lower than anticipated. Despite this, Raygun's campaigning and moderate tone kept the race a tossup going into the second round - although models still gave Astro a slight advantage.

Second Round Results
In many of the key swing states, Astronomical began trailing Raygun in the initial counting, as many of the first votes counted were votes from more rural areas. For some time, Raygun led in states such as Arizona, Michigan, Florida, and North Carolina. As votes from more urban areas were counted, these leads began to shrink. Some Raygun operatives considered calling foul play, but this was strongly vetoed by both Raygun and Senator Cringe. At around 11:30 PM EST, Michigan was called for Astronomical, followed shortly by Georgia, giving him 5 more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Raygun gave a concession speech at around midnight EST, followed thereafter by Astronomical's acceptance speech. Raygun's speech was widely praised across both parties for it's fairness, emphasis on unity, and compassion. In the speech, Raygun says "These past few years have been as divisive as ever. This campaign has been, and will always be about unity. The compassion we have shown to others - and the unwavering support you have shown me, is something I appreciate in ways I cannot explain. This will always be the greatest honor of my lifetime."

Astronomical's speech called for unity and a pledge to fulfill his party's platform. In the speech, Astro states "This is a chance to pass transformative legislation. We have opportunity, like lightning in a bottle, and if we ignore this opportunity, we won't have another one like it for a very long time." By the end of the night, Astronomical had picked up approximately 319 electoral votes, with Florida and Texas too close to call. Eventually, at around 10 AM EST the next morning, Texas was called for Raygun, while Florida was called for Astronomical. At the same time, a Democratic pickup of Florida's Senate seat by Rubix gave the Democrats 60 seats in the United States Senate, enough to end a filibuster.