2028 United States Senate Elections (Pear's Future III)

The 2028 United States Senate Elections occurred with the victory of Ron Desantis as President of the United States. Desantis' win over incumbent Democrat Kamala Harris helped the Republicans down ballot, as Republican across the nation did surprisingly well. Republicans, lead by Senator John Thune of South Dakota, went onto to hold their majority in the Senate over the Democrats, lead by retiring Senator Chuck Schumer of New York. Schumer was replaced as majority leader by Jeff Merkley of Oregon.

Following the 2026 Senate Elections, Republicans held a 53-47 seat majority in the Senate. However, when Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey resigned to become Vice President of the United States, Republican Governor Jack Ciaterelli had appointed Republican Simon Fraser to replace him, with Fraser winning the special election in November 2027 to serve out the rest of Booker's term. This meant that Republicans now held a 54-46 Seat majority in the Senate. Despite this, they continued to make gains, winning two open seats in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, largely helped by Ron Desantis winning these states in the Presidential Election. Democrats on the other hand, were able to win the seat of Wisconsin, defeating incumbent Senator Ron Johnson. This was the first seat that Democrats had gained since John Fetterman won Pennsylvania 6 years back.

Following the elections, Republicans had a 55-45 majority in the Senate. However, a special election held in Iowa in November of 2029 following the resignation of Senator Joni Ernst triggered a special election that was won by Democrat Rob Sand. This meant that control later became 54-46 again until the 2030 Senate Elections.

Arizona
Incumbent Senator Mark Kelly ran for re-election to a second full term in office. Kelly faced former venture capitalist Blake Masters in a rematch of the 2022 elections. Although Arizona was seen as a swing state in the simultaneous Presidential election, Kelly's popularity made him the favourite for re-election. Masters, who had ran a conservative campaign in 2022, ran on a more moderate platform, which was seen as upsetting to some voters who found him as a grifter. Ultimately, Kelly decisively won the election, winning 52.5% of the vote to Master's 45.9%, despite Ron Desantis carrying Arizona by 4.2% on the Presidential level.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator since 2020
 * Diego Guezada, former California state senator (2015-2023) and candidate for Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2026
 * Bob Whiller, attorney

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Blake Masters, former venture capitalist, nominee for the Senate in 2022 and candidate in 2024
 * Buddy Cross, former state senator (2017-2027)
 * Glenn Tyler, pastor and former CIA agent
 * Mike Roth, Arizona Secretary of State (2027-2031)
 * David Li, Member of the Arizona Corporation Commission (2027-2035)

Florida
Incumbent Senator Marco Rubio was originally running for re-election, but later decided that he would not run for another term in office. Repbublican Mayor Francis Suarez won the primary very narrowly in a field of 9 other candidates, while Democrats nominated former state representative Anna Eskamani. As former Governor Ron Desantis was running for President on the same ticket, Republicans were expected to easily win this once swing state. Suarez, a popular mayor, was able to appeal as a moderate and won handily while Eskamani's campaign was unable to keep up.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Francis Suarez, former Mayor of Miami (2017-2025)
 * Terry Porter, President of the Florida Senate (2025-2029) and state senator from Jacksonville (2021-2029)
 * Byron Donalds, former U.S. Representative from Florida's 19th Congressional District (2021-2027) and candidate for Governor in 2026
 * Melissa Brunner, businessman
 * David Corden, Florida State Treasurer (2027-2031)
 * Brian Mast, U.S. Representative from Florida's 18th Congressional District (2017-2029)
 * Benjamin Taylor, neurosurgeon and former Florida department of Health (2026-2027)
 * Joe Davis, former state senator (2023-2027)
 * Craig James, Duval County Sherriff (2023-2027), former state representative (2021-2023) and chief of the Jacksonville Police department (2018-2021)

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Anna Eskamani, state representative (2019-2029)
 * Josh Langevin, U.S. Representative from Florida's 22nd District (2027-2029)

Georgia
Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock did not run for a second full term in office. Democrat George Douglas won his parties' primary in a massive upset, while Republicans nominated former U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to this seat 2019 and lost re-election to Warnock in the 2021 runoff. This race was expected to be competitive, as polls showed a close race, as with the simultaneous Presidential Election. Although Ron Desantis narrowly carried Georgia in the Presidential election, Douglas lead Loeffler in the first round, although he failed to win more than 50% of the vote, sending the race to a runoff. As polls showed the race leaning towards Douglas favor, Republicans were unable to keep up and Loeffler lost by a record 9 points.

Democratic Primary
Although four Democrats were given ballot access in the primary, only two were considered serious contenders for the nomination. Stacey Abrams, the well known former 2-time gubernatorial candidate, was the early front runner, leading with over 61% of the vote in early polls. Her main rival was George Douglas, who had ran a serious primary challenge against Senator Jon Ossoff 2 years back. Although Abrams had most of the state Democratic party backing up her nomination, including Georgia's other Senator Jon Ossoff, Douglas gained serious support from National Democrats, including Chair of the National Democratic Senatorial Committee Tim Kaine. Abrams attacked Douglas for his national support by portraying him as a man who is supported by out of state millionaires with no concern for his state, while Douglas attacked Abrams for losing two gubernatorial races already, saying that he had the better chance to win. Although polls in fall had the two tied in support, Douglas enjoyed a good debate performance and his poll numbers increased, allowing him to win a comfortable victory over Abrams. After the primary, Abrams says she was "screwed by National Democrats who don't want a black woman in the Senate", and refused to endorse Douglas in the general election. Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * George Douglas, President of Georgia State University (2027-2028), former state representative (2021-2027) and candidate for the senate in 2026
 * Stacey Abrams, author, former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives and nominee for Governor in 2018 and 2022
 * Vanessa Heidence, businesswoman
 * Gary Clarke, state senator (2019-2029)

Republican Primary
The original frontrunner for the Republican primary was former Representative and Vice Presidential Nominee Marjorie Taylor Greene, who had lost to Jon Ossoff in 2 years earlier for Georgia's other Senate seat. Many Republicans did not want to challenge Greene, who had a lot of fundraising and name recognition from her past campaigns. As such, Greene faced only token opposition and was the presumptive nominee. However, Greene ended her campaign for the Senate and instead ran for President of the United States before withdrawing from the primaries as well. Following her withdrawal, several Republican candidates jumped into the race, of which the frontrunner became former Senator Kelly Loeffler. Nominee Eliminated in Runoff Eliminated in Primary Withdrew
 * Kelly Loeffler, former U.S. Senator (2019-2021) and candidate for Governor in 2026
 * Jake King, former state senator (2019-2027) and candidate for Senate in 2026
 * Steve London, U.S. Representative from Georgia's 12th District (2027-2029)
 * Peter Plymth, author and former chair of the Georgia Libertarian Party (2017-2019)
 * Rich McCormick, U.S. Representative from Georgia's 6th Congressional District (2023-2029)
 * Marjorie Taylor Greene, former U.S. Representative from Georiga's 14th Congressional District, nominee for the Senate in 2026 and for Vice President in 2024 (Ran for President)

Iowa
Incumbent longtime Senator Chuck Grassley retired after 8 terms in office, making this the first time this seat was open since 1974. Chuck's grandson, Pat Grassley, ran for the Republican nomination and defeated Representative Randy Feenstra to win his parties' primary. Democrats nominated businessman James Axel, a candidate who was seen as potentially able to make the seat competitive due to his personal wealth. However, Grassley was able to win his grandfathers seat by 13 points.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Pat Grassley, former Speaker of the Iowa House of Representatives (2021-2027) and grandson of incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley
 * Randy Feenstra, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 4th Congressional District (2021-2029)
 * Jim Carlin, former State Senator and candidate for the Senate in 2022
 * Randy Scott, farmer and Iraq War veteran

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * James Axel, businessman and former U.S. Marine
 * Scott Warren, state senator (2023-2029)
 * Glenn Anderson, minority leader of the Iowa state senate (2025-2027)

Nevada
Incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who mad a brief run for President in 2028 but withdrew before the primaries and ran for re-election to a third term in office. Masto faced Joey Gilbert, the Nevada Attorney General. Although Masto was expected to be the early favourite, polls narrowed over time. However, Masto was able to narrowly win re-election, even as Ron Desantis carried the state in the Presidential Election.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Withdrew
 * Catherine Cortez Masto, Incumbent U.S. Senator
 * Zach Conine, former Nevada State Treasurer (2019-2027)
 * Samuel Lang, former CEO of Titan Energy (2009-2011) and candidate for Governor in 2026
 * Shelley Berkley, Mayor of Las Vegas, former U.S. Representative (1999-2013) and nominee for the Senate in 2012
 * Josh Greimer, attorney

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Joey Gilbert, Nevada Attorney General
 * Anthony Diaz, U.S. Representative from Nevada's 3rd District (2027-2029)

New Hampshire
Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan originally ran for a third term in office. Republican Chris Sununu, the former Governor who had ran for President earlier that year, announced he would run for this seat last minute, making virtually every Republican challenger withdraw following his announcement and Hassan withdrawing from the race. Sununu handily won the Republican Primary, while Democrat Jay Bradley won his parties' primary to face Sununu. Sununu, a popular Governor who appealed to the libertarians in the state, was seen as the clear frontrunner due and lead in both polls and fundraising, ultimately flipping the race by a massive 12 points.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrew
 * Chris Sununu, former Governor of New Hampshire (2017-2027) and candidate for President of the United States in 2028
 * Barbara Hale, former chairman of Donald Trump's New Hampshire campaign in 2024, businesswoman and author
 * Chris Garett, U.S. Representative from New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District (2027-2029) (ran for re-election)
 * Robert Leonard, speaker of the New Hampshire house of Representatives (2025-2031) (ran for re-election)
 * John Burr, New Hampshire Attorney General
 * William Hoover, businessman and former state senator (2021-2023)
 * Henry Yoder, farmer

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrew
 * Jay Bradley, state senator (2019-2029)
 * Charles Phillips, minority leader of the New Hampshire state senate (2025-2029)
 * Maggie Hassan, incumbent U.S. Senator (2017-2029)

New York
Incumbent Senator Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, did not run for re-election, creating the first time this seat was open since 1956. Democrat Pat Ryan defeated a number of other challengers to win his parties' nomination, while Republicans nominated George Blake.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Pat Ryan, U.S. Representative from New York's 18th District (2022-2029)
 * Antonio Delegado, former Lieutenant Governor of New York (2022-2027) and former U.S. Representative from New York's 19th Congressional District (2019-2022)
 * Jamaal Bowman, U.S. Representative from New York's 16th Congressional District (2021-2029)
 * Kathy Hochul, former Governor of New York (2021-2027)
 * Adam Craig, former CIA agent
 * Michael Lee, former President of New York University (2024-2028)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * George Blake, minority leader of the New York senate (2027-2031)
 * Charles Adams, former state senator and nominee for New York Attorney General in 2026

North Carolina
Incumbent Senator Ted Budd ran for re-election to a second term in office. Budd faced former Representative Don Davis. Davis was a popular well known figure across the state and many expected the race to be close. However, Budd was able to win re-election by a larger margin than expected.

Republican Primary
Nominee
 * Ted Budd, Incumbent U.S. Senator since 2023

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Don Davis, former Representative from North Carolina's 1st Congressional District (2023-2027)
 * Greg Ross, businessman
 * Drake Taylor, former President of Duke University (2025-2028)

Ohio
Incumbent Senator J.D. Vance ran for re-election to a second term in office. Vance faced Amy Acton, the former Ohio secretary of health. The race was expected to easily go for Vance, as Ohio was shifting Republican and was expected to be carried by Ron Desantis in the Presidential election. However, Acton ran a strong campaign that made her the frontrunner in the summer, with her lead shrinking in the fall. Altough she lead in pre-election polls, Acton lost by almost 5 percentage points, largley in part of the downballot effect as Ron Desantis handily carried Ohio in the Presidential Election.

Republican Primary
Nominee Disqualified
 * J.D. Vance, incumbent Senator
 * Alex Hart, attorney

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Amy Acton, former Director for the Ohio department of health (2019-2020)
 * Bob Turner, businessman and nominee for Ohio Secretary of State in 2026

Pennsylvania
Incumbent Senator John Fetterman did not run for re-election to a second term in office, as he suffered from poor health conditions during and since the 2022 election. Democrats nominated Summer Lee, a progressive Representative from Pittsburgh to replcae him while Republicans nominated Pennsylvania State Treasurer Stacy Garrity. The race was anticipated to be close, as with the 2028 Presidential Election in which Pennsylvania was a crucial swing state. However, Lee's progressive policies alienated many voters, allowing Garrity to win the election and overperform Ron Desantis on the same ballott.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Summer Lee, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District (2023-2029)
 * Bob Doyle, businessman
 * James Champin, state representative (2025-2029)
 * Angela Liu, U.S. Ambassador to France (2028-2029)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2021-2029)
 * Doug Mastriano, former state senator (2019-2025), nominee for Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022 and candidate for the Senate in 2024
 * Richard Terri, author

South Dakota
Incumbent Senator John Thune, the Senate Majority Leader, ran for re-election to a fifth term in office. Thune faced Ben Grayson, an attorney who won the Democratic primary. As South Dakota leaned heavily Republican, Thune was expected to win re-election easily. Thune overperformed Ron Desantis downballot by nearly 18 points.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * John Thune, incumbent Senator and Senate Majority Leader
 * Josh Burnet, state senator (2019-2031)
 * John. D. Baker, attorney

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Ben Grayson, attorney

Wisconsin
Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson ran for re-election to a fourth term in office. A poll in early 2027 showed Johnson as the least popular Senator in the nation, with just a 35% approval rating. As Wisconsin was a swing state, and Johnson had benefitted from good Republican years in 2010, 2016 and 2022 to win, many pundits expected this race to be an easy Democratic pick-up. Lieutenant Governor Tom Nelson won the Democratic primary and defeated Johnson in the general election.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Ron Johnson, incumbent U.S. Senator
 * David Price, Speaker of the Wisconsin General Assembly (2027-2029)

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Tom Nelson, Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin (2027-2029) and candidate for the Senate in 2022
 * Sarah Godlewski, former Wisconsin State Treasurer (2019-2023) and candidate for the Senate in 2022
 * Cavalier Johnson, mayor of Milwakuee (2021-2029)