2024 United States House Elections (Pear's III)

The 2024 United States House of Representatives took place with Joe Biden's victory in the 2024 United States Presidential Election. All 435 members of the United States House of Representatives were up for re-election, as well as 5 non-voting delegates from each of the federal territories.

Prior to election day, most polls showed Democrats retaking control of the house. This was attributed to Republican's narrow majority, as well as Biden's strong lead against Donald Trump in the Presidential election. Despite Biden's victory, Republicans held on the house, although their already narrow majority narrowed even further to a lead of just a net loss of 3 seats, winning 219 seats, one more than needed for a majority.

The Democrats gained 5 seats from the Republicans, 3 in New York in which Republicans did well in 2022, one in Oregon and one in Arizona. Republicans flipped 2 seats, one in Washington and one in Michigan from Democrats. In total, just 7 seats switched hands in this election cycle, and absurdly low number.

The incumbent House Minority Leader, Democrat Hakeem Jefferies, remained House minority leader. While incumbent speaker Kevin McCarthy had a difficult time retaining his position, due to continued opposition from the House Freedom Caucus. However, he was able to gain enough votes to be re-elected speaker, although he did have to pledge to retire in 2026.

Alaska's At Large
Incumbent Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat, ran for re-election. Due to Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, Peltola faced 3 challengers, 2 of which were Republican. Despite President Donald Trump carrying the state easily, Peltola easily defeated her opponents, gaining a narrow majority of the vote, preventing the vote from going to a second round in which the Republican vote would likely go into more rounds.

Arizona's 1st
Incumbent Representative Dave Schweikert ran for re-election. Schweikert faced Democrat Jevin Hodge in a rematch of the 2022 elections, which Schweikert narrowly won. The district, covering a part of northern part of Phoenix suburbs, was highly competitive, with President Joe Biden carrying it in 2020 and in 2024. This time, Hodge narrowly defeated Schweikert, becoming the first Democrat to win this since 2008.

Colorado's 3rd
Incumbent Representative Lauren Boebert ran for re-election to another term. Boebert faced Adam Frisch in a rematch of the 2022 race. Due to Boebert's narrow win in 2022, this seat was highly targeted by Democrats. Donald Trump won this district by 4 points in the 2024 Presidential election. Boebert defeated Frisch a second time, narrowly winning a third term and overperforming her 2022 margins.

Colorado 8th
Incumbent United States Representative Yadira Caraveo, a Democrat ran for re-election to a second term. Caraveo defeated Republican Lori Saine, a former State Representative in a narrow race.

Michigan's 3rd
Incumbent Representative Hillary Scholten, first elected in 2022, ran for re-election to a second term. Scholten, a well liked moderated, defeated Republican State Senator Mark Huizenga in a swing district that covers the Grand Rapids area, a growing Democratic area and swing district.

Michigan's 7th
Incumbent Representative Elissa Slotkin, first elected in 2018, did not run for re-election. Slotkin instead successfully ran for the Senate. Republican Ruth Johnson, a state Senator and former Michigan Secretary of State, defeated Democrat businessman William Sherryl by a narrow margin, flipping one of 2 seats for the Republicans in this election cycle.

Michigan 11th
Incumbent Representative Haley Stevens, first elected in 2018, decided to run unsuccessfully for the Senate rather than run for re-election. Former Representative Andy Levin, who lost to Stevens in the Democratic primary in 2022, ran in this district, wining the Democratic primary and the general election.

New Hampshire's 1st
Incumbent Representative Chris Pappas, a Democrat, ran for re-election to a fourth term. Pappas faced former State Representative Tim Baxter, a Republican who ran on a heavy libertarian platform. Despite this, Pappas won re-election by a good margin.

New Jersey's 7th
Incumbent Representative Thomas Kean Jr., who flipped this district in 2022, ran for re-election to a second term in office. Kean faced former Representative Tom Malinowski in a rematch of both the 2020 and the 2022 elections in this district. Malinowski had won against Kean in 2020, but Kean defeated Malinowski 2 years later. Kean, a well known moderate, was able to expand his victory from 2022, defeating Malinowski four points.

New York's 3rd
Incumbent Representative George Santos, first elected in 2022, did not run for re-election to a second term. Santos was called to resign amongst multiple scandals. Democrats nominated former Representative Thomas Suozzi, who represented the district from 2017 to 2023, when he retired to run for Governor of New York. Republicans nominated NYPD Deputy Inspector Allison Esposito, who had been the party's nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2022. When Esposito ran for Lieutenant Governor, her ticket had carried this district. However, Santos' scandals combined with Suozzi's moderate campaign allowed Democrats to gain this seat.

New York's 17th
Incumbent Representative Mike Lawler, a Republican first narrowly elected in 2022, ran for re-election to a second term. Lawler faced Mondaire Jones, the former Representative from the 17th who had lost re-nomination in the 10th district in 2022. The race was highly targeted by New York Democrats, due to a strong Democratic lean. Although Mondaire was behind in polls for most of the campaign, he was helped by President Joe Biden on the same ballot, and narrowly defeated Lawler

New York's 18th
Incumbent Representative Pat Ryan, first elected in a special election in 2022, ran for re-election. Ryan faced former State Assemblyman Colin Schmitt in a competitive election and rematch of the 2022 election. Altough Republicans initially targeted this race, Ryan won by a 5 point margin, which was larger than most pundits expected.

New York's 19th
Incumbent Representative Marc Molinaro, first elected in 2022, ran for re-election. Molinaro faced state assemblyman Jeff Parker, the Democratic nominee in another race highly targeted by Democrats. Molinaro narrowly defeated Parker in a race that Democrats highly anticipated to win.

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