2016 US Elections (No Party Switch)

Scenario Summary
This scenario (known as No Party Switch) takes place in a timeline where the two political parties never switched. The Democrats are still right-wing, and the Republicans are still left-wing. Furthermore, I also made some changes (i.e. Donald Trump still being liberal, third parties performing better) to keep things interesting. THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY A WORK IN PROGRESS.

Summary
The 2016 US Presidential Election took place on November 8, 2016. The Democratic ticket of Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Indiana Governor Mike Pence defeated the Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, the Libertarian ticket of former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and CIA agent Evan McMullin, and the Progressive ticket of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. This was the first election since 1968 that a third party candidate won a state. This was also the first election since 1988 that a presidential candidate won over 400 EVs. This was also the first election that the Progressive Party participated in. This was the first election that a write-in candidate won a state. Republican Incumbent President Barack Obama was unable to seek re-election to a third term due to term limits stated in the Constitution.

Democratic Primary
Although the Democratic Primary was very crowded, one candidate stood out and won the nomination by a comfortable margin. This candidate was Texas Senator Ted Cruz. The other candidates were:

- Florida Senator Marco Rubio

- Ohio Governor John Kasich

- Dr. Ben Carson

- Ex-Florida Governor Jeb Bush

- Ex-Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore

- Ex-CEO of Hewlett-Pickard Carly Fiorina

- New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

- Kentucky Senator Rand Paul

- Ex-Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum

- Political Commentator and Ex-Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

- Ex-New York Governor George Pataki

- South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham

- Ex-Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

- Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker

- Ex-Texas Governor Rick Perry

Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki all withdrew from the election before the primaries began.

Background
Shortly after the 2012 Presidential election, speculation about 2016 begun immediately, with most political analysts predicting Texas Senator Ted Cruz becoming the 2016 Democratic nominee. Cruz led comfortably from when polling began in early 2013, until New Jersey Governor Chris Christie received a surge in polling due to his work as a Democratic governor in a traditionally Republican state. By late 2013, Christie was in 1st place in the polls, while Cruz lagged behind. On January 8, 2014, however, leaked emails revealed that Christie's administration purposely caused traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge due to political disagreements with Fort Lee's Republican Mayor. This was known as the Bridgegate scandal and it caused Christie to plummet in polls as polling started to once again favor Texas Senator Ted Cruz. From early 2014 until mid 2015, Cruz once again led comfortably in the polls as many predicted that he would become the Democratic nominee. However, Doctor Ben Carson, who held no prior political experience, begun to pose a threat against Cruz's lead in the polls, as polls showed them both neck-and-neck. However, in late 2015, Carson, when asked about the recent terrorist attack on Paris, had a hard time answering the question. This made Democratic primary voters think that Carson is inexperienced in foreign policy, this caused his numbers to plummet, as Cruz, once again, regained his 1st place spot. Many political analysts say that Cruz held the 1st place spot most of the time due to his appeal towards conservatives (who make up the majority of Democratic primary voters). Sure enough, Cruz managed to easily slide to victory in the Democratic primaries and become the Democratic nominee.

Running Mate Selection
Cruz, after winning the Democratic nomination, was reportedly considering the following individuals for the running mate position:

- Indiana Governor Mike Pence

- New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (primary opponent)

- Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich

- Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions

- Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin

- Tennessee Senator Bob Corker

- North Carolina Senator Richard Burr

- Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton

- Iowa Senator Joni Ernst

- Retired Lt. General Michael Flynn

After months of speculation, Cruz picked Pence as his running mate.

Republican Primary
The Republican Primary may have not been as crowded as the Democratic primary, but the Republican primary was just as competitive as the Democratic primary was crowded, with businessman Donald Trump and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton neck-and-neck in polling. In the end, Trump managed to narrowly win the Republican primary. Other candidates were:

- Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders

- Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley

- Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Lessig

- Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee

- Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb

Lessig, Chafee, and Webb withdrew before the primaries began.

Background
Shortly after the 2012 Presidential election, speculation about 2016 begun immediately, with most political analysts predicting either Secretary of State (at the time) Hillary Clinton or Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders becoming the 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee. Both were neck-and-neck in polling from when polling began in early 2013, until late 2015, when Sanders was pushed down to third place, and a new candidate, Donald Trump, gained traction, and was neck-and-neck with Clinton in polling. By the end of the state-by-state primary, Trump was declared the Republican nominee with very few delegates ahead of Clinton.

Running Mate Selection
Trump, after winning the Republican nomination, was reportedly considering the following individuals for the running mate position:

- Virginia Senator Tim Kaine

- California US Representative Xavier Becerra

- New Jersey Senator Cory Booker

- Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown

- Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro from Texas

- Los Angeles, California Mayor Eric Garcetti

- Labor Secretary Tom Perez from Maryland

- Ohio US Representative Tim Ryan

- Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

After months of speculation, Trump picked Kaine as his running mate.

Libertarian Primary
Former New Mexico Governor and 2012 Presidential Candidate Gary Johnson was selected as the Libertarian nominee for President. He selected former CIA agent Evan McMullin as his running mate.

Green Primary
Massachusetts Physician Jill Stein was selected as the Green nominee for President. She selected DC activist Ajamu Baraka as her running mate.

Constitution Primary
Tennessee Attorney Darrel Castle was selected as the Constitution nominee for President. He selected Utah businessman Scott Bradley as his running mate.

Party for Socialism and Liberation Primary
California Activist Gloria la Riva was selected as the Party for Socialism and Liberation nominee for President. She selected DC activist Eugene Puryear as her running mate.

Progressive Primary
The Progressive Party was not formed until mid-2016, when the election was in full swing. It was formed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, after leaked emails showed that RNC leadership was working with Trump and Clinton to prevent Sanders from winning the primary, out of fear that a Sanders primary victory would lead to a Democratic election victory. Due to a high government official forming the party, it quickly got ballot access in all 50 states. However, by the time the party was formed, it was too late to file for the presidential election. So, Sanders chose to run as a write-in candidate for the newly-formed political party, selecting Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren as his running mate.

General Election
Shortly after the Democratic and Republican nominees were determined, Trump experienced a slight lead in the polls up until the aforementioned RNC emails were leaked, after which Bernie Sanders formed the Progressive Party and became a write-in candidate, causing major vote splitting on the American left and disunity in the Republican Party. This led Cruz to become the new front-runner. Meanwhile, Libertarian Gary Johnson was picking up Republican voters who did not prefer Trump or Sanders, as well as Democrats who weren't too fond of Cruz. Furthermore, Trump was also beginning to face sexual misconduct allegations, which hurt his campaign and drew even more Republicans, particularly women, to either Sanders or Johnson. Political analysts say this vote splitting caused usual Republican bastions (i.e. Delaware, New Jersey) to flip to Cruz.

Summary
The 2016 US Senate Elections took place on November 8, 2016. Despite Democrats winning in a landslide in the 2016 presidential election, Republicans achieved a net gain of 5 seats in the Senate. Although Democrats technically had the majority of seats, the Republicans, Progressives, and the Independent (whom caucused with Republicans) worked together to elect New York Senator Charles Schumer as the Senate Majority Leader.

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Background
In Alabama, Incumbent Democratic Senator Richard Shelby managed to cling on to his seat, defeating Republican pro-cannabis activist and perennial candidate Ron Crumpton. Although Shelby won his re-election by a large margin, this was his second worst performance of his senate career (first place went to the first time when he was elected in 1986). This was because this was the first time in his entire senate career he lost Jefferson, Conecuh, and Barbour counties. It was also the second time in his senate career that he got under 60% of the vote (first time was again in 1986). The Alabama Republican Party was impressed with Crumpton's performance so Crumpton decided to move up within the Alabama Republican Party's ranks.

Democratic Primary
Incumbent Democratic Senator Richard Shelby was speculated to have a primary challenge from a more anti-establishment conservative candidate due to Shelby serving 4 terms by this point and Shelby being considered a more moderate Democrat. Sure enough, this did happen, with 4 other candidates posing a primary challenge to Shelby. In the end, however, Shelby won the primary by a landslide margin.

Nominee:

- Incumbent Senator Richard Shelby

Eliminated in primary:

- Uber Driver Marcus Bowman

- Pilot and 2008 US House of Representative District AL-02 Candidate John Martin

- Businessman Jonathan McConnell

- Perennial Candidate Shadrack McGill

Republican Primary
Nominee:

- Pro-Cannabis Activist and Perennial Candidate Ron Crumpton

Eliminated in primary:

- Process Engineer Charles Nana

- Perennial Candidate Reginald Hill

Other Candidates
- Independent Process Engineer Charles Nana (write-in) (previously sought the Republican nomination, but ran as an independent write-in candidate after being defeated)

Background
In Alaska, incumbent Democratic Senator Lisa Murkowski managed to cling on to her seat, defeating Republican perennial candidate Ray Metcalfe and Independent attorney and retired army Lt. Colonel Margaret Stock, as well as a handful of other candidates. Despite Murkowski being generally disliked amongst conservative Democrats (whom make up the majority of the Democratic voter base) due to her stance as a moderate Democrat, this election was actually her best performance in her senate career, not only in the general, but in the primary as well.

Democratic-Libertarian Primary
Incumbent Democratic Senator Lisa Murkowski was speculated to have a primary challenge from a conservative candidate due to her stance as a moderate Democrat. Sure enough, Murkowski got 4 other primary challengers. In the end, however, Murkowski won the primary by a landslide margin in what many consider to be an upset. Also, in Alaska, the Democratic Party and the Libertarian Party candidates appear on the same primary ballot, and the highest placed candidate from both parties gets that party's nomination. However, no Libertarian candidate declared their intent to run in this election.

Nominee:

- Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (Democratic)

Eliminated in primary:

- Paul Kendall (Democratic)

- 2006 Candidate for the Alaska State House Thomas Lamb (Democratic)

- Mechanic and 1996 Candidate for the Alaska State House Bob Lochner (Democratic)

- Former Anchorage Mayor and 2014 Lt. Gov. Nominee Dan Sullivan (not related to Alaska's other senator, who is also named Dan Sullivan) (Democratic)

Republican Primary
The Republican Primary was very competitive, but in the end, former Democratic State Representative and perennial candidate Ray Metcalfe managed to narrowly defeat founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers, former mayor of Seward, and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development Edgar Blatchford by only 2 points.

Nominee:

- Former Democratic State Representative and perennial candidate Ray Metcalfe

Eliminated in primary:

- Founder and Former Editor and Publisher of Alaska Newspapers, former mayor of Seward, and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development Edgar Blatchford

Veterans Party Primary
Nominee:

- Veterans Party of Alaska Founder and perennial candidate Ted Gianoutsos

Eliminated in primary:

- Retired Army Sergeant and 2006 Republican candidate for the Alaska State House Bruce Walden

Green Party Primary
Commercial Fisherman, Republican candidate for the US senate in 1992 and Green Party nominee for the US senate for this same seat in 1996 Jed Whittaker was the only candidate that decided to run for the Green Party nomination, thus instantly getting the nomination.

Other Candidates
- Independent Breck Craig

- Independent Attorney and retired army Lt. Colonel Margaret Stock

- Independent Sid Hill

- Former Republican Senator Mark Begich (although he declined running, a handful of Alaskans started a write-in campaign for him)

Background
In Arizona, Democratic incumbent John McCain managed to cling on to his seat and narrowly defeat Republican US Representative Ann Kirkpatrick. This election was his worst performance in his senate career and the first time in his senate career that he lost the traditionally Republican counties of Coconino and Pima. This election confirmed many political analysts speculations of Arizona slowly shifting to the left. The Arizona Republican Party was impressed with Kirkpatrick's performance but she declined to take a spot in the Arizona Republican Party, but instead reclaiming her former House seat 2 years later in 2018.

Democratic Primary
Incumbent Democratic Senator John McCain was speculated to have a primary challenge from a more anti-establishment conservative candidate due to him serving 5 terms by now and being known as a moderate Democrat. Sure enough, this did happen, with 4 other candidates declaring a bid to primary McCain, In the end, however, McCain won the primary by a landslide margin.

Nominee:

- Incumbent Senator John McCain

Eliminated in primary:

- Former State Senator Kelli Ward

- Talk Radio Host and Perennial Candidate Clair Steenwyk

- Printing Company Owner and pro-fairtax Activist Alex Meluskey

- Businessman David Pizer

Republican Primary
Nominee:

- US Representative Ann Kirkpatrick

Eliminated in primary:

- Teacher and Perennial Candidate Leonard Clark

- Retired Administrative Law Judge and former Iowa State Representative Richard Sherzan

Green Party Primary
Gary Swing was the only candidate to run for the Green Party nomination. Thus, he instantly got the nomination.

Libertarian Primary
Merissa Hamilton was the only candidate to run for the Libertarian nomination. Thus, she instantly got the nomination.

Arkansas
In Arkansas, incumbent Democratic Senator John Boozman managed to cling on to his seat and defeat Republican former attorney Conner Eldridge. Despite this election being considered an underperformance for Democrats, Boozman achieved a higher margin of victory than in last election. This election was the first time Boozman won Arkansas, Lincoln, Lawrence, and Jackson counties as well as the first time he lost Washington, Dallas, and Ouachita counties. The Arkansas Republican Party was impressed with Eldridge's performance so he decided to move up the ranks of the party.

Democratic Primary
Nominee:

- Incumbent Senator John Boozman

Eliminated in Primary:

- Businessman and Perennial Candidate Curtis Coleman

Republican Primary
Former Attorney Conner Eldridge was the only candidate that ran for the Republican nomination. Thus, he instantly got the nomination.

Libertarian Primary
DeKalb Township Constable, Former Tull Mayor, 2012 State Senate Nominee, and 2014 Governor Nominee Frank Gilbert was the only candidate that ran for the Libertarian nomination. Thus, he instantly got the nomination.

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Background
In California, incumbent Republican senator Barbara Boxer decided not to run for re-election. Republican Attorney General Kamala Harris beat Republican US Representative Loretta Sanchez in a landslide in the general election.

Primary
In California, all of the candidates appear on a single ballot for the primary, regardless of party. The top two candidates, regardless of party, then advance to the general election.

Advanced to general:

- Attorney General Kamala Harris (Republican)

- US Representative Loretta Sanchez (Republican)

Eliminated in primary:

- Cristina Grappo (Republican)

- Engineer Massie Munroe (Republican)

- Herbert Peters (Republican)

- Activist Emory Rodgers (Republican)

- Small business owner and 2014 Independent Candidate for CA-28 Steve Stokes (Republican)

- Attorney Stewart Albertson (Republican)

- Businessman Greg Colon (Democratic)

- Former Chairman of the California Democratic Party Tom Beccaro (Democratic)

- Educator Von Hougo (Democratic)

- Retiree and candidate for the US senate in 2012 Don Krampe (Democratic)

- Jerry Laws (Democratic)

- Former City Planner Tom Palzer (Democratic)

- Educator Karen Roseberry (Democratic)

- Former Chairman of the California Democratic Party George Sundheim (Democratic)

- Activist and candidate for governor in 1994 Ron Unz (Democratic)

- Attorney Jarrell Williamson (Democratic)

- Former State Senator, Former State Assemblyman, and Perennial Candidate Phil Wyman (Democratic)

- Businessman George Yang (Democratic)

- State Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (Democratic)

- Pamela Elizondo (Green)

- Community Organizer Mark Herd (Libertarian)

- Retired Nurse and Perennial Candidate Gail Lightfoot (Libertarian)

- John Parker (Peace and Freedom)

- Climate Change Activist Mikelis Beitikis (Independent)

- Factory Worker Elanor Garcia (Independent)

- Tim Gildersleeve (Independent)

- Clive Grey (Independent)

- Chiropractor, Chairman of the California Constitution Party and Perennial Candidate Don Grundmann (Constitution)

- Attorney and Engineer Jason Hanania (Independent)

- Jason Kraus (Independent)

- Paul Merritt (Independent)

- Gar Myers (Independent)

- Author Ling Shi (Independent)

- Scott Vineberg (Independent)

Background
In Colorado, incumbent Republican senator Michael Bennet managed to cling on to his seat and narrowly defeat Democratic El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn. Bennet managed to do better in this election than his last election in 2010. But despite this, this was his first election he lost Conejos, Huerfano, Las Animas, and Chaffee counties. Although the county map indicates a landslide victory for Glenn, Bennet managed to win by running up his margins in traditionally Republican Denver County, which is home to the city of Denver, which is Colorado's capital and largest city. 80% of Denver County voters voted for Bennet, which was greater than his 2010 margins in that county.

Democratic Primary
The Democratic Primary was very crowded. But in the end, El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn managed to beat all the other candidates.

Nominee:

- El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn

Eliminated in Primary:

- Businessman and 2012 Candidate for CO-3 Robert Blaha

- Former Aurora City Councilman and Perennial Candidate Ryan Frazier

- Businessman and Colorado State University athletic director Jack Graham

- Former State Representative Jon Keyser

- Retired Air Force Computer Programmer and conservative activist Charlie Ehler

- Former Director of the Small Business Administration, former mayor of Parker and 2000 candidate for Colorado State Senate Greg Lopez

- Former Insurance and Real Estate Agent Jerry Eller

- Former Brighton School Board Member and Perennial Candidate Tom Janich

- Mortgage Broker Michael Kinlaw

- El Paso County Commissioner and former Colorado Board of Education member Peggy Littleton

- Businessman Jerry Natividad

- State Senator Tim Neville

- Jefferson County Commissioner Donald Rosier

- Former Congressional Staffer Erik Underwood

Republican Primary
Incumbent Republican Senator Michael Bennet was the only candidate to run for the Republican nomination. Thus, he instantly got the nomination.

Unity Party Primary
Chairman and Founder of the Unity Party Bill Hammons was the only candidate to run for the Unity Party nomination. Thus, he instantly got the nomination.

Green Party Primary
Former Eagle County Commissioner and founder of SOS Outreach Arn Menconi was the only candidate to run for the Green Party nomination. Thus, he instantly got the nomination.

Boiling Frog Primary
Promoter and Perennial Candidate Gary Swing was the only candidate to run for the Boiling Frog nomination. Thus, he instantly got the nomination.

Libertarian Primary
Former Chair of the Colorado Libertarian Party and 2014 candidate for the Colorado State House Lily Williams was the only candidate to run for the Libertarian nomination. Thus, she instantly got the nomination.