1916 United States presidential election (Idea by u/SkipperPengn)

The 1916 United States presidential election was the 33rd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 1916. Democratic presidential candidate, William Jennings Bryan narrowly defeated incumbent Republican president, Theodore Roosevelt.

In June, the 1916 Democratic National Convention nominated Bryan due to his fiery speeches against U.S. Involvement in the Great War and Roosevelt's New Nationalism. Bryan secured the nomination in a close race against Thomas Marshall, Champ Clark, and Judson Harmon. While Bryan, originally, had no intention to run, he was convinced to run after a major grassroots campaign called for his nomination due to Roosevelt's interventionism and New Nationalism.

At the 1916 Republican National Convention, the incumbent president, Theodore Roosevelt won the nomination in a landslide. Roosevelt faced opposition from the isolationist wing of the Republican Party who supported Robert La Follette. Robert La Follette criticized Roosevelt on his declaration of war against Germany after the sinking of the Lusitania. La Follette called the move "risky" and declared "the will of the people has been ignored at the National Convention as men are sent to die in a foreign land, for a foreign nation, and against a foreign enemy".

The 1916 election took place when the nation was dominated by war -- the Mexican Revolution and the Great War. Although the United States was heavily involved in the Great War on the side of the Entente, public opinion grew again the War and in favor of peace. The United States had joined the war in 1915 on the side of the Entente, which included Great Britain, France, and Russia against the German Empire and Austria-Hungary, which made up the Central Powers. Despite the population being more sympathetic to the Allies, they grew against the war due to a series of failed offensive campaigns which oversaw a major loss of American lives. As the casualty numbers returned home, the nation grew against the war. Roosevelt, however, defended the war effort stating it was our duty to get involved after 128 Americans died in the Sinking of the Lusitania which was caused by a German U-Boat torpedoing the ship. Bryan's campaign used popular anti-war slogans such as "Not Our Land, Not Our War" and "Return Our Boys Home" to appeal to the major anti-war base of the American voter. Roosevelt criticized Bryan's position as "un-American".

Throughout the election, Bryan was considered the favorite to win due to Roosevelt's growing unpopularity since 1915. After a hard-fought election, Bryan defeated Roosevelt and won the popular vote by just under 600,000 votes. Bryan comfortably won a majority in the electoral college by sweeping the Solid South, the West Coast, along with winning several swing states with razor-thin margins. Due to Roosevelt's unpopularity, he failed to carry the states of California, Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Indiana, Delaware, and West Virginia which were swing states considered to be necessary for a win. Bryan won California, West Virginia, and Delaware, states that had not voted for a Democrat since 1892.

The election of William Jennings Bryan ended 20 years of Republican control of the Executive Branch. This was the first time since 1892 that a Republican incumbent lost an election. The United States left the war in August 1917, 6 months after Bryan's first term began.

Delegate selection
The 1916 Democratic National Convention was held in St. Louis, Missouri between June 14th and June 17th.

The Democratic Convention aimed to find a candidate that could unseat Theodore Roosevelt. They had hoped for Woodrow Wilson to run again, however, he declined to run again after his loss in 1912. Although several candidates were officially running for the Democratic nomination, there were only three that gained national focus, William Jennings Bryan, who ran as the nominee and lost in 1896, 1900, and 1908. Bryan was challenged by Champ Clark, the incumbent Speaker of the House of Representatives, who believed Bryan was too soft on foreign policy. Challenging them both was the 1912 Vice Presidential nominee, Thomas R. Marshall, who had served as Governor of Indiana from 1903 to 1913.

Although Clark was in the lead on the first ballot, Bryan soon soared past him on the second day after a fiery speech in the Convention Hall. The speech called out Roosevelt's grip on the nation, calling it "the closest we are to the grip of authoritarianism". His speech was well received by the Convention members, and nationally, which led to him winning the Democratic Nomination on June 17th.

Convention
The 1916 Republican National Convention was held in Chicago between June 7th and June 10th.

The Convention saw incumbent president, Theodore Roosevelt, win against Robert La Follette who had the support of the isolationist wing of the Republican Party. Roosevelt however defeated La Follette in a landslide. Herbert Shadley was re-nominated uncontested.

Socialist candidates
Eugene V. Debs and Charles Edward Russell declined to run for the nomination. Debs, who had served as the party's presidential nominee since its foundation, chose to run for a seat in the United States House of Representatives from Indiana's 5th congressional district. Allan Benson, a newspaper editor from New York, quickly came to dominate the field on a platform of his fervent opposition to militarism and proposal that all wars should be voted upon in a national referendum. Rather than a traditional nominating convention, the vote was conducted through a mail-order ballot, with Benson capturing 16,639 out of a total of 32,398 cast (to 12,264 for Maurer and 3,495 for Le Sueur). A vote for the vice-presidential nomination was jointly held with George Ross Kirkpatrick, a lecturer from New Jersey, winning the nomination 20,607 to 11,388 over Kate Richards O'Hare of Missouri.

General election
During the election, Bryan's campaign actively worked to unify the anti-war vote, including those in the Republican Party. Roosevelt had created many enemies including Hiram Johnson, the Governor of California, who had previously supported Roosevelt in 1912. Johnson had grown distant from Roosevelt due to the United States' involvement in the Great War. While Bryan had made no major attempt to gain Johnson's endorsement, Roosevelt's Sedition Act and Interventionism drew Johnson to publicly endorse Bryan and campaign for him in California, which often is cited as the reason Bryan won California.

Roosevelt campaigned on his record and in support of the war, he openly called Bryan's views dangerous and "un-American". This position grew more unpopular however after the Battle of the Somme, which saw a failed campaign against the Germans take the lives of over 60,000 Americans.

Bryan criticized Roosevelt for the losses, stating that he and Commander Leonard Wood were directly responsible for "sending our boys into a meat grinder". Bryan's attacks hit hard as the reports of the losses aided in the growth of the anti-war movement.

Roosevelt's campaign attempt to sabotage Bryan
With Roosevelt's popularity plummeting, he and his campaign oversaw a "trapdoor campaign" in which they actively enticed Bryan to meet with "German Diplomats" who claimed to have information on the Roosevelt Administration that would win Bryan the election. The Diplomats, of course, were nonexistent and much to the dismay of the Roosevelt Administration Bryan never responded to any of the Diplomat's offers.

Roosevelt then resorted to intimidation, having the police appear during Bryan's anti-war speeches. This caused Bryan to scale back his campaign in an attempt not to gather the attention of the police department due to the Sedition Act

Results
The election was held on November 7, 1916, and saw, the Democratic Candidate and former Nebraska Representative, William Jennings Bryan defeat, the incumbent Republican President, Theodore Roosevelt. The election was majorly decided by the swing states, which were California, Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa, Maryland, and West Virginia, which Bryan won all of except for Iowa. Bryan's victory led to the end of the 20-year-long Republican control of the White House which began, ironically, with Bryan's loss against William McKinley in 1896.

Results in doubt
Some New York newspapers had declared Roosevelt the winner of the election, including The World and The Sun, which prematurely claimed that seven states (New Hampshire, Delaware, West Virginia, Indiana, Minnesota, Oregon, and California) had voted for Roosevelt. This caused Roosevelt to declare he would not concede until recounts in those states had finished. All recounts proclaimed Bryan the winner in those states.

Electoral results
Williams Jennings Bryan took 36 states for 324 electoral votes, while Roosevelt only took 12 states and 207 electoral votes. Roosevelt was the first sitting Republican President to lose re-election since Benjamin Harrison in 1892.

Roosevelt lost the popular vote by a margin of 3.91 percent, the fourth worst showing of an incumbent President behind John Adams in 1800 (22.8% margin), John Quincy Adams in 1828 (12.4% margin), and Martin Van Buren in 1840 (6.1% margin).

The total popular vote cast in 1916 exceeded that of 1912 by 3,500,000. The very large total vote was an indication of an aroused public interest in the campaign. It was larger in every section, notably in the Midwest and West Coast sections. Some of this was due to the extension of suffrage to women in individual states, but most credit the rise in voters due to the United States' involvement in the Great War. In Illinois, for example, the total vote was one million greater than in 1912. It increased by more than 260,000 in Kansas, and in Montana, it more than doubled.



Source (Popular Vote):

Source (Electoral Vote):

Results by state
The key states proved to be California, Oregon, Minnesota, Indiana, West Virginia, Delaware, and New Hampshire, which all went to Bryan by close margins. If Roosevelt had carried those seven states he would have just barely won the election with 267 electoral votes, one more than the necessary 266 votes.

Although New Hampshire may not have been a deciding state for a Bryan victory in the election, the margin of victory for Bryan there was the second smallest ever recorded in an American presidential election at just 56 votes, behind Franklin Pierce's 25-vote victory in Delaware in 1852.

Close states
Margin of victory of less than 1% (49 electoral votes):
 * 1) New Hampshire, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 2) Iowa, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 3) Minnesota, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 4) Indiana, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 5) Oregon, 0.00% (0 votes)

Margin of victory of less than 5% (120 electoral votes):
 * 1) Delaware, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 2) West Virginia, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 3) California, 0.00% (O votes) (Tipping point state)
 * 4) New Mexico, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 5) Wisconsin, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 6) Illinois, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 7) Maine, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 8) New York 0.00% (0 votes)

Margin of victory of between 5% and 10% (91 electoral votes):
 * 1) South Dakota, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 2) Maryland, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 3) Missouri, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 4) North Dakota, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 5) Kentucky, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 6) Kansas, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 7) Washington, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 8) Massachusettes, 0.00% (0 votes)
 * 9) Connecticut, 0.00% (0 votes)

Results by county
Of the 3,022 counties making returns, Wilson led in 2,035 counties (67.47%). Hughes managed to carry only 980 counties (32.30%), the smallest number in the Republican column in a two-party contest during the Fourth Party System. Two counties (0.07%) split evenly between Wilson and Hughes. Although the Progressive Party had no presidential candidate (just candidates for presidential electors who were unpledged for president), they carried five counties (0.17%), whilst nine counties – 0.30 percent and the same as in 1912 – were inhabited either by Native Americans without citizenship or disenfranchised African Americans failed to return a single vote. Wilson carried 200 counties that had never voted Democratic in a two-party contest prior to that time

Counties with Highest Percent of Vote (Democratic)
 * 1)  Dillon County, South Carolina 100.00% 
 * 2)  Hampton County, South Carolina 100.00% 
 * 3)  Jasper County, South Carolina 100.00% 
 * 4)  Tunica County, Mississippi 100.00% 
 * 5)  Echols County, Georgia 100.00% 

Counties with Highest Percent of Vote (Republican)
 * 1)  Leslie County, Kentucky 91.55% 
 * 2)  Sevier County, Tennessee 90.42% 
 * 3)  Zapata County, Texas 89.17% 
 * 4)  Jackson County, Kentucky 87.90% 
 * 5)  Johnson County, Tennessee 87.33% 

Counties with Highest Percent of Vote (Other)
 * 1)  Lafourche Parish, Louisiana 59.38% 
 * 2)  Glascock County, Georgia 53.79% 
 * 3)  Paulding County, Georgia 53.52% 
 * 4)  Fannin County, Georgia 51.29% 
 * 5)  Iberia Parish, Louisiana 47.59% 

Aftermath
The defeat of Theodore Roosevelt is credited directly to the interventionist policies that led to U.S. involvement in the Great War and Roosevelt's extreme, and often illegal, tactics to try and defeat Bryan in 1916. Roosevelt would leave the office with a popularity rating of 36.7%. William Jennings Bryan would go on to order the withdrawal of American troops on June 17, 1917, after it became apparent that a peace deal could not be brokered in Europe.