2024 United States Senate Election (Pear's Future III)

The 2024 Senate Elections took place with Joe Biden's re-election to a second term. Despite Biden's re-election, Republicans were able to gain 3 seats in the Senate, taking back the Senate Majority. Following the disappointing performance Republicans had in the 2022 midterms, Republicans were able to improve with turnout and candidate quality. This was especially possible with Democratic incumbents in states that were simultaneously won by Donald Trump in the Presidential election, such as West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

All in all, Republicans made 2 gains in the Senate, easily flipping West Virginia where Democratic Senator Joe Manchin retired. Republicans also won Arizona, where incumbent indpendent Senator Kyrsten Sinema lost re-election in a 3 way race.

Arizona
Incumbent Senator Krysten Sinema ran for re-election to a second term. Sinema had been elected in 2018 as a Democrat, but announced in December 2022 that she would leave the Democratic party to become an independent. Despite her switch, Sinema continued to caucus with the Democrats in exchange for keeping her committee assignments. Although members of the Democratic party establishment, including Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, majority whip Dick Durbin, Representative Nancy Pelosi, all wanted to endorse Sinema and not nominate a candidate in order to split the vote, U.S. Representative Reuben Gallego decided to run and won the Democratic primary easily. Republican Kimberly Yee, the Arizona State Treasurer, won a crowded field of Republican candidates to win the parties' nomination. Due to vote splitting between Gallego and Sinema, Ducey was able to easily win re-election.

Independents

 * Kyrsten Sinema, Incumbent U.S. Senator (2019-2025)

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Reuben Gallego, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 3rd Congressional District (2015-2025)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Widthrew
 * Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer (2019-2025)
 * Blake Masters, venture capitalist and nominee for Senate in 2022
 * Mark Finchem, former State Representative and nominee for Arizona Secretary of State in 2022
 * Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sherriff
 * Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th Congressional District (2017-2027) (Endorsed Lamb)
 * Mark Bronvich, former Arizona Attorney General (2015-2023) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022 (Endorsed Yee)

California
Incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein, who was 91 at the time of the election, decided to retire. In the blanket primary, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Katie Porter qualified for the general election. The election was seen as a tossup, with both Newsom and Porter failing to appeal to conservative rural voters. Ultimately, Republican officials endorsed Newsom in fear of Porter's progressive policies, allowing him to comfortably win the election.

Blanket Primary
Advanced to General Election Eliminated in Primary
 * Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (2019-2025) (Democratic)
 * Katie Porter, U.S. Representative from California's 47th Congressional District (2019-2025) (Democratic)
 * Ro Khanna, U.S. Representate from California's 45th Congressional District (2017-2025) (Democratic)
 * Barack Mandela Obama, attorney  (Republican)
 * Denice Gary-Pandol, educator (Republican)

Michigan
Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term in office. Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin won the Democratic nomination, while Republican Peter Meijer won the Republican nomination. Both candidates were seen as moderates, with Meijer campaigning against former President Donald Trump. However, Slotkin won the election narrowly, underperforming Joe Biden's 5-point victory in Michigan.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Elissa Slotkin, U.S. Representative from Michigan's 7th Congressional District (2019-2025)
 * Haley Stevens, U.S. Representative from Michigan's 11th Congressional District (2019-2025)
 * Rashida Tlaib, U.S. Representative from Michigan's 12th Congressional District (2019-2025)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Peter Meijer, former U.S. Representative from Michigan's 3rd District
 * Tudor Dixon, conservative media personality and nominee for Governor in 2022
 * Ryan Kelley, former Allendale Planning Commissioner, participant in the January 6 Capitol attack, and candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022