2026 United States Senate Elections (Pear's Future III)

The 2026 United States Senate elections occurred in the middle of Joe Biden's second term. The election, as a part of the 2026 midterms, were seen as a referendum on Biden and the ability for Republicans to capitalize off of President Biden's low approval ratings. Although, polls showed Biden with approval ratings under 40 percent due to the 2026 recession, many argued that Republican strength would be hindered due to a lack of strong leadership within the party. A similar conflict was seen in the 2022 midterms, where Republican infighting caused Republicans to do poorly despite President Biden's poor approval ratings. However, Republicans were able to nominate strong moderate candidates in most of their races, allowing them to expand their senate majority.

Republicans gained two seats in the Senate, one from Minnesota where they defeated incumbent senator Tina Smith, and another from Michigan where incumbent Senator Gary Peters did not run for re-election. Republicans were also able to hold their open seats in Kentucky, South Carolina, North Carolina and Idaho, while Democrats were able to hold their other open seats in Virginia and Rhode Island. as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel retired, Republicans nominated John Thune to be their party leader, who also became Majority Leader.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * John Hickenlooper, incumbent Senator from Colorado

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Convention
 * Eli Bremer, former chair of the El Paso Republican party
 * Greg McCollough, hedge fund manager
 * Jeff Lopez, former physician

Georgia
Incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff ran for re-election to a second term in office. Ossoff faced Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, a former Congresswoman from the 14th district and was her parties Vice Presidential nominee in 2024. Although Republicans spent nearly 50 million dollars trying to flip this seat, Ossoff won re-election by a larger margin than he did in 2021, despite Republicans holding onto many top races in Georgia like the governorship. Ossoff's victory showed Georgia's growing trend to the left, especially in the Atlanta Metro Area, where he did particularly well.

Democratic Primary
Campaign Like most incumbents, Ossoff was originally seen as the clear favourite for for his party's nomination. However, Ossoff faced a formidable challenger in the Democratic primary in state Representative George Douglas. Douglas was an establishment Democrat who was known in the State legislature as an effective political leader, and was able to pick up several endorsements from Democrats and fundraised a great deal. However, he lacked name recognition outside of his district. A poll taken 4 months before the primary showed Ossoff leading Douglas by 12 points, 45% to 33%. However, Ossoff did not receive a majority in that poll, which would lead to a runoff between Douglas and Ossoff. President Joe Biden and Georgia's other Senator Raphael Warnock both pressured Douglas to drop out as to not divide the party before the general election, but Douglas denied. In the May Democratic Primary, Ossoff won a slim 53% of the vote to Douglas' 37%, narrowly avoiding a runoff. Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Jon Ossoff, incumbent U.S. Senator
 * Mark Evans, former professional football player and candidate for Mayor of Atlanta in 2025
 * George Douglas, state Representative (2021-2027)

Republican
Campaign At first, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp was expected to run for the Senate, however he declined, but pledged to support a challenger to Marjorie Taylor Greene, who became the first person to formally announce their candidacy. Following Greene's candidacy, Kemp and many other Georgia Republicans attempted to recruit a strong challenger to beat Greene. This included attempting to change Kemp's mind, but it did not work. Ultimately, Republicans were able to recruit State Attorney General Chris Carr. 3 other Republicans, State Senator Jake King, businessman David Walsh and farmer Fred Case also ran, but they did not lead in any polls. Originally, polls showed Greene with a dominant lead against Carr and they other candidates. However, as the Greene campaign made several blunders, Carr narrowed the lead. In the May primary, Carr and Greene advanced to a runoff. In the August runoff, Greene narrowly defeated Carr. Nominee Eliminated in Runoff Eliminated in Primary
 * Marjorie Taylor Greene, former U.S. Representative from Georgia's 14th Congressional District (2021-2025) and Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2024
 * Chris Carr, Georgia Attorney General (2016-2027)
 * Jake King, State Senator
 * David Walsh, businessman
 * Fred Case, farmer

Iowa
Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst ran for re-election to a third term. Ernst faced Democrat Mike Franken, an admiral who was his party's nominee for the Senate in 2022. Ernst ran as a conservative hawk, while Franken ran as a moderate. Altough Ernst won, she severely underperformed polls, winning by less than 7 points, a similar margin from 2020.

Republican Primary

 * Joni Ernst, incumbent Senator since 2015

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Michael Franken, retired former Navy admiral, former aide to Senator Ted Kennedy, nominee for the Senate in 2022 and candidate in 2020
 * James Cleen, former pharmacist
 * Bill McMahon, radio host
 * Clarence Price, construction company owner, candidate for Iowa state house in 2024

Kentucky
Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority leader, did not run for re-election to an eighth term in office. McConnell, who suffered from low approval ratings and consistent opposition from both the moderate base and the far-right base of the Republican party, was criticized, leading to his retirement from politics. Republicans nominated former Ambassador Kelly Kraft, who had previously run for Governor, while Democrats nominated former State Representative Charles Booker, who had been his party's nominee for the Senate in 2022. Kraft, a political moderate who also appealed to the far right conservative base, easily won the election.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Kelly Kraft, former U.S. Ambassador for the United Nations and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2023
 * Andy Barr, U.S. Representative from Kentucky's 6th District (2013-2027)
 * Savannah Maddox, speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2023

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Charles Booker, Director of Kentucky's Office of Faith-Based Initiatives and Community Involvement, former State Representative and nominee for the Senate in 2022
 * Geoff Brinks, former doctor
 * James Hale, state Representative
 * George Chrispy, former radio host

Maine
Incumbent Senator Susan Collins ran for re-election to a sixth term in office. Collins easily won the Republican primary, and faced Democrat Troy Jackson. Democrats originally targeted this seat, as Maine was a traditionally Democratic state, and Jackson was seen as a formidable challenger to Collins. However, Collins had high approval ratings due to her constant opposition to President Donald Trump, whom the Democrats attempted to tie her to. Collins ultimately won re-election by 5 points, her lowest margin yet, however it was a larger margin than expected as most polls showed Collins and Jackson tied.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Susan Collins, incumbent Senator since 1997
 * Tom Flores, former State Senator

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Troy Jackson, former President of the Maine State Senate (2017-2025)
 * Henry Beck, Maine State Treasurer
 * Michelle Black, real estate developer
 * Richard Chiang, former member of the Waterville city council

Michigan
Incumbent Senator Gary Peters did not run for re-election to a second term. The race was expected to be highly competitive, with Michigan being one of the few swing states with a Senate seat up for re-election. Republicans nominated John James, who had lost the the 2020 race to Peters. Democrats nominated former Representative Rashida Tlaib, a member of the squad. Tlaib's candidacy was controversial and disliked amongst moderate voters, while James ran a safe campaign that did not polarize too many voters. Ultimately, James won the election, flipping the seat to Republicans.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Rashida Tlaib, former Representative from Michigan's 12th Congressional District (2019-2025) and candidate for the Senate in 2024
 * Eric Volt, businessman
 * Thomas Young, Member of the Huron county school board, former regent for the University of Michigan, former State Representative
 * Pete Franks, former State Senator
 * Barbara Angle, former United States Ambassador to Austria (2024-2026)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Failed to Qualify
 * John James, U.S. Representative from Michigan's 10th Congressional District (2023-2027)
 * Mason Graves, former Pharmaceutical businessman
 * Francis Zarillo, neurosurgeon and perennial candidate
 * Gary Lovelock, attorney
 * Tom Morales, community activist

Minnesota
Incumbent Senator Tina Smith ran for re-election to a second full term in office. Republicans nominated Representative Michelle Fischbach to challenge Smith. Although most pollsters had the race "leaning Democratic", Fischbach narrowly defeated Smith to gain a seat to the Republicans. Smith was the only incumbent to lose re-election in the 2026 election cycle, and her defeat was largely in part to Janet Cranston, a left wing activist who ran under the left wing Legal Marijuana Now party. Smith's failure to take a hard stance in legalizing marijuana helped raise the party's turnout and allowed the left wing vote to be split, helping the Republicans.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Tina Smith, incumbent U.S. Senator Withdrew at convention
 * Joe Huron, fisherman and former Iraq War Veteran
 * Tom Stinct, small restaurant owner
 * James Cloon, former United States Airforce pilot
 * Don Blaine, taxi driver

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrew at convention
 * Michelle Fischbach, U.S. Representative from Minnesota's 7th Congressional District (2021-2027)
 * Doug Burden, former state representative and professional hockey player
 * Tate Lewis, physician
 * David Harris, retired doctor
 * Tim Davis, author