2024 United States Senate Election (Pear's Future III)

The 2024 Senate Elections took place with Joe Biden's re-election to a second term. Despite Biden's re-election, Republicans were able to gain 3 seats in the Senate, taking back the Senate Majority. Following the disappointing performance Republicans had in the 2022 midterms, Republicans were able to improve with turnout and candidate quality. This was especially possible with Democratic incumbents in states that were simultaneously won by Donald Trump in the Presidential election, such as West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

All in all, Republicans made 2 gains in the Senate, easily flipping West Virginia where Democratic Senator Joe Manchin retired. Republicans also won Arizona, where incumbent indpendent Senator Kyrsten Sinema lost re-election in a 3 way race.

Arizona
Incumbent Senator Krysten Sinema ran for re-election to a second term. Sinema had been elected in 2018 as a Democrat, but announced in December 2022 that she would leave the Democratic party to become an independent. Despite her switch, Sinema continued to caucus with the Democrats in exchange for keeping her committee assignments. Although members of the Democratic party establishment, including Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, majority whip Dick Durbin, Representative Nancy Pelosi, all wanted to endorse Sinema and not nominate a candidate in order to split the vote, U.S. Representative Reuben Gallego decided to run and won the Democratic primary easily. Republican Kimberly Yee, the Arizona State Treasurer, won a crowded field of Republican candidates to win the parties' nomination. Due to vote splitting between Gallego and Sinema, Ducey was able to easily win re-election.

Independents

 * Kyrsten Sinema, Incumbent U.S. Senator (2019-2025)

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Reuben Gallego, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 3rd Congressional District (2015-2025)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Widthrew
 * Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer (2019-2025)
 * Blake Masters, venture capitalist and nominee for Senate in 2022
 * Mark Finchem, former State Representative and nominee for Arizona Secretary of State in 2022
 * Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sherriff
 * Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th Congressional District (2017-2027) (Endorsed Lamb)
 * Mark Bronvich, former Arizona Attorney General (2015-2023) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022 (Endorsed Yee)

California
Incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein, who was 91 at the time of the election, decided to retire. In the blanket primary, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Katie Porter qualified for the general election. The election was seen as a tossup, with both Newsom and Porter failing to appeal to conservative rural voters. Ultimately, Republican officials endorsed Newsom in fear of Porter's progressive policies, allowing him to comfortably win the election.

Blanket Primary
Advanced to General Election Eliminated in Primary
 * Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (2019-2025) (Democratic)
 * Katie Porter, U.S. Representative from California's 47th Congressional District (2019-2025) (Democratic)
 * Ro Khanna, U.S. Representate from California's 45th Congressional District (2017-2025) (Democratic)
 * Barack Mandela Obama, attorney  (Republican)
 * Denice Gary-Pandol, educator (Republican)

Michigan
Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term in office. Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin won the Democratic nomination, while Republican Peter Meijer won the Republican nomination. Both candidates were seen as moderates, with Meijer campaigning against former President Donald Trump. However, Slotkin won the election narrowly, underperforming Joe Biden's 5-point victory in Michigan.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Elissa Slotkin, U.S. Representative from Michigan's 7th Congressional District (2019-2025)
 * Haley Stevens, U.S. Representative from Michigan's 11th Congressional District (2019-2025)
 * Rashida Tlaib, U.S. Representative from Michigan's 12th Congressional District (2019-2025)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Peter Meijer, former U.S. Representative from Michigan's 3rd District
 * Tudor Dixon, conservative media personality and nominee for Governor in 2022
 * Ryan Kelley, former Allendale Planning Commissioner, participant in the January 6 Capitol attack, and candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022

Montana
Incumbent Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat, ran for re-election to a fourth term in office. Tester faced Republican representative Ryan Zinke. Although Tester was originally seen as a vulnerable candidate, Zinke was attacked for his extreme views and several scandals, allowing Tester to win by a narrow margin. This was Tester's worst performance since he was first elected back in 2006.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Jon Tester, incumbent Senator since 2007

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Ryan Zinke, U.S. Representative from Montana's 1st Congressional district (2023-2025) formely the At-Large district (2015-2017) and former Secretary of the Interior (2017-2019)
 * Russel Fagg, former district judge for Yellowstone county, former State Representative and candidate for Senate in 2018
 * Corey Stapleton, former Secretary of State of Montana (2017-2021), candidate for Montana's at-large district in 2018 and for President of the United States in 2024

Nevada
Incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen ran for re-election to a second term in office. Rosen defeated businessman Rick Harrison, the Republican nominee.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Jacky Rosen, incumbent Senator

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Rick Harrison, businessman
 * Sam Brown, businessman, retired U.S. Army captain, Purple Heart recipient, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022
 * Crescent Hardy, former U.S. Representative from Nevada's 4th Congressional District (2015-2017)

Ohio
Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown ran for re-election to a fourth term in office. Republican Representative Warren Davidson won the nomination. The race was highly targetted, as Ohio had trended to the Republicans in recent years. Despite this, Brown was able to narrowly hold on, winning in his narrowest race yet.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. Senator

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated from Primary
 * Warren Davidson, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 8th District (2016-2023)
 * Matt Dolan, state senator (2017-2025) and candidate for the Senate in 2022
 * Mike Gibbons, businessman and candidate for the Senate in 2018 and 2022
 * David Door, attorney
 * J.R. Majewski, air force veteran, rapper and nominee for Ohio's 9th Congressional District in 2022
 * Carter Pewter, businessman
 * Robert Sprague, Ohio State Treasurer (2019-2027)

Pennsylvania
Incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a fourth term in office. Casey faced off against businessman David McCormick, who won the Republican nomination. The race was seen as competitive, with McCormick taking the lead in the early summer. However, Casey won by a comfortable 6 points, though this was his worst Senate performance. Casey overperformed President Joe President, who won the state by a much narrower margin in his bid for re-election.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Bob Casey Jr., incumbent Senator since 2007

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * David McCormick, businessman, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for foreign affairs (2007-2009) and candidate for the Senate in 2022
 * Kathy Barnette, author and candidate for Senate in 2022
 * Doug Mastriano, former State Senator and nominee for Governor in 2022
 * Jeremy Shaffer, former Ross Township commissioner and nominee for PA-17 in 2022

Texas
Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz ran for re-election to a third term, despite long advocating for term limits. Cruz won the Republican primary against challenger William Hurd, while Democrat Colin Allred won the Democratic nomination. The race between Cruz and Allred was close, with Allred boosting African American turnout. Ultimately, Cruz won by a 5 point margin, overperforming Donald Trump's margin of victory in Texas during the 2024 Presidential Election.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Ted Cruz, incumbent Senator since 2013
 * Will Hurd, former U.S. Representative from Texas 23rd Congressional District (2015-2021)
 * Don Huffines, former State Senator and candidate for Governor of Texas in 2022

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Colin Allred, U.S. Representative from Texas' 32nd Congressional District (2019-2025)
 * John Love III, financial advisor, former Midland mayor pro tempore, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020
 * James Royce, police officer

West Virginia
Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin, A democrat, originally announced an intention to run for re-election, but later decided to retire instead of seeking a third term. Manchin was also speculated to run for Governor. Republican Representative Alex Mooney won the Republican primary, while Democrat Richard Ojeda won the Democratic primary. The race was expected to be an easy Republican flip, as West Virginia had a near all Republican delegation, and was expected to vote for Trump by around 40 Percentage Points. Manchin's retirement only further ensured that theory. However, Ojeda ran a really strong campaign, appealing to both moderates and progressives in the state. In the end, Mooney won the election by a solid margin of 22 points. Although he handily won the election, Mooney's performance underperformed every other election in the state, including both the Governor's race and the Presidential race.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Richard Ojeda, former State Senator, nominee for West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District in 2018, candidate for the Senate in 2020 and for President of the United States in 2020
 * Donald Cliffe, small business owner
 * Mark Roth, state delegate

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Alex Mooney, U.S. Representative from West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District (2019-2025)
 * Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia Attorney General
 * Chris Rose, coal Miner
 * Oliver Croft, businessman

Wisconsin
Incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin ran for re-election to a third term. Baldwin faced former Representative Sean Duffy, who won the Republican primary in a 3 way race. The race between Duffy and Baldwin was intense, as with Wisconsin in the Presidential race. Ultimately, Baldwin won re-election to a third term, narrowly defeating Duffy. This was Baldwins worst performance yet, as she won handily in 2012 and 2018.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. Senator

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Sean Duffy, former U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District (2011-2019)
 * Tim Michels, businessman, nominee for Senate in 2004, and Governor of Wisconsin in 2022
 * Kevin Nicholsen, businessman, candidate for Senate in 2018 and for Governor in 2022