2024 Senate Elections (Pear's Future Elections)

The 2024 United States Senate election occurred with the re-election of President Joe Biden. Despite Biden's re-election, Republicans were able to gain 4 seats in the Senate, expanding their majority. This was largely due to the senate map being favorable for Republicans Republicans defeated incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Joe Manchin in West Virginia. while being able to hold onto all of their seats. Republicans also won an open seat in Arizona, where incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema lost the Democratic primary.

Arizona
Incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema ran for re-election to a second term. Sinema was challenged in the Democratic primary by US Representative Reuben Gallego, a progressive who criticized Sinema for her moderate views. In April, Gallego narrowly defeated Sinema in the democratic primary. Republican State Treasurer Kimberly Yee won the Republican primary, and defeated Gallego in the general election

Democratic Primary
Candidates Campaign The Campaign between Gallego and Sinema was incredibly competitive. Although early polls showed Gallego leading the incumbent, the primary season saw polls swing from Sinema to Gallego and back. The final results, on election day was too close to call, with Gallego leading Sinema by less than 0.1%. Following a recount, Gallego was declared the winner.
 * Kyrsten Sinema, Incumbent US Senator since 2019
 * Reuben Gallego, US Representative from Arizona's 3rd Congressional District

Republican Primary
Candidates
 * Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer
 * Blake Masters, Businessman and Nominee for the Senate in 2022
 * Keli Ward, Chair of the Arizona Republican Party and candidate for Senate in 2016 and 2018

California
Incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein decided to retire. In the Non-Partisan primary, US Representative Ro Khanna and Social Media influencer Kevin Paffrath advanced to the general election. In the general election, Khanna narrowly defeated Paffrath by a narrow margin, despite having more endorsements and fundraising money than Paffrath. Paffrath's strength was attributed to winning most of the Republican vote, as well winning the support of many moderates.

Non Partisan Primary
Advanced to General Election Eliminated in Primary Results
 * Ro Khanna, United States Representative from California's 17th Congressional District (Democratic)
 * Kevin Paffrath, Social Media influencer and candidate for governor in the 2021 Recall election (Democratic)
 * Katie Porter, United State Representative from California's 47th Congressional District (Democratic)
 * Kevin Deleon, former Los Angeles city Councilman, former State Senate pro tempore, candidate for Governor in 2018 (Democratic)
 * Barack Obama Mendela, attorney (Republican)

Florida
Incumbent Senator Rick Scott ran for re-election to a second term in office. Scott faced Democratic Stephanie Murphy, a former Democratic Representative. Polls were tight, with most pundits considering the election a 'tossup'. On election day, Scott narrowly won, defeating Murphy by a third of a percentage point.

Republican Primary
Candidate
 * Rick Scott, incumbent Senator since 2019

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrew Results
 * Stephanie Murphy, former United States Representative from Florida's 7th Congressional District
 * Ken Russel, former Miami City Commissioner and candidate for the US Senate and for FL-27 in 2022
 * Brian Rush, former Minority Whip of the Florida house of Representatives and candidate for Senate in 2022
 * Val Demmings, former United States Representative from Florida's 10th Congressional district and nominee for the Senate in 2022
 * Charlie Christ, former United States Representative from Florida's 13th Congressional district, former Republican Governor of Florida, and nominee for Governor in 2014 and 2022

Michigan
Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow won re-election to a fifth term in office. Stabenow defeated Republican John Gibbs, outperforming President Joe Biden, who only won narrowly won in the state.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrawn
 * John Gibbs, former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development for Community Planning and Development and nominee for United States representative in Michigan's 3rd congressional district in 2022
 * Perry Johnson, businessman and candidate for Governor in 2022
 * Tom Beck, small business owner
 * Mary Lillywhite, St. Joseph county Sherrif
 * Peter Meijer, former United States Representative from Michigan's 3rd congressional district (Ran for MI-3)
 * Stephen Crowder, Conservative commentator

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Debbie Stabenow, incumbent Senator since 2001
 * Jeff Lee, surgeon
 * Bob Marnon, businessman

Montana
Incumbent Senator Jon Tester ran for re-election to a fourth term, but narrowly lost to Matt Rosendale in a rematch of the 2018 Senate Election. Tester's defeat was an upset, as he was ahead of most polls. However, it is likely that popular governor Greg Gianforte sparked voter enthusiasm for Rosendale, helping him win.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrawn
 * Matt Rosendale, United States Representative from Montana's 2nd Congressional District, formerly the At-Large District and nominee for the Senate in 2018
 * Greg Moore, attorney
 * Ryan Zinke, United States Representative from Montana's 1st Congressional District and former United States Secretary of the Interior (ran for re-election)
 * Corey Stapleton, former Secretary of State of Montana, candidate for governor in 2020 (ran for MT-2)

Democratic Primary
Candidate
 * Jon Tester, incumbent Senator since 2007

Nevada
Incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen ran for re-election to a second term in office. Rosen faced Republican Congressman Mark Amodei. Amodei, a moderate Republican who could appeal to both the conservative and moderate wings of his party, was able to united his base and defeat Rosen by a 2.4 point margin.

Democratic Primary
Candidate
 * Jacky Rosen, incumbent Senator

Republican Primary
Nominee  Withdrawn
 * Mark Amodei, United States Representative from Nevada's 2nd Congressional district
 * Joey Gilbert, attorney, former boxer and candidate for Governor of Nevada in 2022

Ohio
Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown ran for re-election to a fourth term. Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose won the Republican primary, defeating former congressman Jim Renacci, who had lost to Brown 6 years earlier. Brown narrowly won against Larose by a narrow margin.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State
 * Mike Gibbons, businessman and candidate for Senate in 2018 and 2022
 * Jim Renacci, former United States Representative from Ohio's 16th district, candidate for governor in 2022 and nominee for the senate in 2018

Democratic Primary
Candidate
 * Sherrod Brown, incumbent Senator since 2007

Pennsylvania
Incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for a fourth term in office. Republican Kathy Barnette won her party's nomination unoppossed, but lost to Casey by a large margin. Barnette's loss was contributed to her weak campaign and very extreme views.

Republican Primary
Nominee Withdrawn
 * Kathy Barnette, candidate for senate in 2022
 * Jeff Bartos, businessman and candidate for senate in 2022
 * Ray Burmin, attorney
 * Hugh Katsen, buisnessman

Democratic Primary
Candidate
 * Bob Casey Jr, incumbent United States Senator since 2007

Texas
Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz ran for re-election to a third term. At first, Cruz was considered incredibly vulnerable, largely due to a primary challenge from former Congressman Will Hurd. After a narrow victory in the primary, Cruz faced Collin Allred, the Democratic nominee in the general election. Cruz narrowly won, underperforming Presidential candidate Donald Trump in the general election.

Republican Primary
On June 4th, 2023, Ted Cruz filed the paperwork to run in the Republican Primary in the 2024 Republican primary election. Cruz, who had also previously ran for President in 2016, was an early front-runner, however his campaign failed to gain traction, and following former President Donald Trump's candidacy, Cruz withdrew from the race. Cruz stated that despite withdrawing from the Presidential campaign, he would continue to not seek re-election in the Senate. The next day, former congressman Will Hurd announced he will run in the Republican primary to replace Cruz. former State senator Don Huffines announced he will run a week later. Former congresswoman Mayra Flores also announced her campaign a month later. The primary was deemed competitive, with most polls showing Flores and Hurd heading to a runoff. However, on the last day to file to run, Ted Cruz announced his re-election campaign. The same day, Hurd and Huffines announced in a press conference that they will not drop out of the race. Flores considered withdrawing to run again in congress, however she never switched campaigns and instead remained in the campaign for senate. Despite being the incumbent, Cruz had a tough time being re-elected, as Hurd appealed to many suburban voters unpleased with the polarizing Cruz. As such, the two became the quick frontrunners and most polls showed Cruz with a small lead over Hurd, not enough to avoid a runoff. In May 7th 2024, during the Republican primary, Hurd narrowly got more votes than Cruz and the two went into a runoff. Huffines endorsed Cruz in his concession speech whilst Flores declined to endorse any candidate, although pledging to support the nominee in the general election. In the June 5th runoff, Cruz narrowly won over Hurd Nominee Eliminated in runoff Eliminated in Primary
 * Ted Cruz, incumbent United States Senator (2013-2031) and brief candidate for President in 2024
 * Will Hurd, former United States representative from Texas' 23rd congressional district (2015-2021)
 * Mayra Flores, former United States representative from Texas' 34th Congressional District (2022-2023)
 * Don Huffines, former Texas state senator and candidate for Governor of Texas in 2022

Democratic Primary
Candidate
 * Collin Allred, United States Representative from Texas' 34th Congressional district (2019-2025)

West Virginia
Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin ran for re-election to a third full term, but was narrowly defeated by incumbent Republican Governor Jim Justice. Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, Manchin was seen as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the senate up for re-election.

Republican Primary
Justice originally declined to run for the Senate back in 2021, however right before the 2022 midterms, Justice was once again considering a run. The first major candidate to announce a candidacy was Patrick Morrisey, the attorney general of West Virginia who lost to Manchin in 2018. Although Morrisey had a strong name recognition throughout the state, he was criticized for his poor campaign in 2018. The day after Morrisey announced a candidacy, Congressman Alex Mooney from West Virginia's 2nd congressional district announced he would run. A week later, George Yarborough, a rancher and businessman, announced that he would run. Finally, in January of 2024, Justice announced his campaign. Despite being the latest to run, Justice's popularity and name recognition made him the front runner. In March, President Trump went on a rally with Mooney, where he formally endorsed the congressman. Despite this, Justice was able to use his war chest to beat Mooney for the nomination Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Jim Justice, governor of West Virginia (2017-2025)
 * Alex Mooney, United States representative from West Virginia's 2nd Congressional district (2015-2025)
 * Patrick Morrisey, Attorney General of West Virginia (2017-2025) and Nominee for Senate in 2018
 * George Yarborough, rancher and businessman

Democratic Primary
Candidate
 * Joe Manchin, incumbent Senator and former Governor of West Virginia

Wisconsin
Incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin ran for re-election to a third term, facing businessman Kevin Nicholson.