Presidency of Barry M. Goldwater (Midnight)

Barry M. Goldwater's tenure as the 37th president of the United States began following his inauguration on January 20th, and ended following the inauguration of his successor, George S. McGovern, on January 20th, 1969. The circumstances regarding the origin of Goldwater's presidency are unique, given that his election was mostly caused by the American people's reaction towards the Warren Report, which released to the public on September 27th, 1964, just over a month before election day. Over the course of his four year term, Goldwater governed as perhaps the most stark example of traditional Conservatism seen in the modern area. His Presidency was marked by historically low approval rating, a factor in his decision not to run for reelection.

Though hampered by a Congress overwhelmingly dominated by the Democratic party, Goldwater managed to cut back upon the New Deal on several occasions. Goldwater operated under a philosophy of laissez-faire capitalism, meaning he was staunchly opposed to almost all government intervention in the economy. After taking office, many of his proposed reforms were unable to get through congress. A notable exception to this would be the events following the government shutdown of October, 1965, in which Goldwater, working with fiscal conservative in both parties, was able to force through multiple cuts to various government programs, including Social Security. Following the 1966 Congressional midterms, Goldwater's presidency returned to stagnation.

In foreign affairs, Goldwater's presidency was dominated by the Cold War and the Vietnam War. He pursued an aggressive policy of anti-communism, hoping to diminish the global power and influence of the Soviet Union. The number of American military personnel in Vietnam increased dramatically, from 16,000 soldiers in 1963 to over 900,000 in 1968. Growing anger with the war stimulated a large antiwar movement based especially on university campuses in the U.S. and abroad. Goldwater faced further troubles when summer riots broke out in most major cities after 1965. These riots severely escalated following the bombing and destruction of the Red River dikes, in late 1966, which devastated North Vietnam's food supply and reportedly resulted in the death of more than one hundred thousand North Vietnamese civilians. By the end of his term, support for the war was only twenty-six percent, down forty points from 1965.

Though eligible for another term, Goldwater announced in April 1968 that he would not seek re-nomination. His preferred successor, Vice President William Miller, failed to win the Republican nomination against New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, who was ultimately defeated by McGovern in the general election. Historians consider Goldwater to be a below-average President, though he is usually rated higher than his successor. Goldwater's handling of the economy and of the Vietnam War remains broadly unpopular, but his efforts to enforce Civil Rights are almost universally praised.

Republican nomination
Barry Goldwater served as a Senator from Arizona from 1953 to 1965, and during that tenure, he gained a reputation as a staunch conservative. Following the publication of his book, "The Conscience of a Conservative," in 1960, Goldwater's name was speculated as a possible candidate for President. Goldwater had looked forward to a competitive, issue-based campaign against his close friend and former colleague John F. Kennedy, however such hopes were dashed when Kennedy was assassinated on November 22nd, 1963, in Dallas, Texas. Though distraught, nevertheless he announced his candidacy on January 3, 1964, intending to challenge the newly inaugurated Lyndon B. Johnson. While he enjoyed high support among the conservative wing of the party, many moderates, and almost all liberals, were alienated by Goldwater. These groups coalesced around New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, who ran a spirited campaign, but failed to defeat Goldwater in a number of notable primaries, including California.

At the July Republican National Convention in Daly City, California, a stop-Goldwater movement attempted to nominate Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton, but the coalition never materialized and Goldwater secured the nomination on the first ballot. He selected New York Congressman and Chairman of the Republican National Committee William Miller as his running mate. While Miller was similar in ideology to Goldwater, it was believed that his Catholic faith and New York location could help balance the ticket. Miller's selection received a luke-warm response, as while he was moderately inoffensive to the liberal wing of the party, he was all but unknown to most Americans. In his acceptance speech, Goldwater articulated a message of unapologetic conservatism, stating, "I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!"

General election
Segregationist Governor George C. Wallace entered several 1964 Democratic presidential primaries, taking a large share of the vote in several states before announcing that he would seek the presidency as an independent or member of a third party. However, after the nomination of Goldwater, Wallace heeded the requests of Southern conservatives to withdraw from the race.

At the start of 1964, most Democrats expected that President Lyndon B. Johnson would be re-nominated without issue. Those expectations were shattered when Robert F. Kennedy, younger brother to the late president, announced his candidacy in March, following his resignation from the office of Attorney General in February. Reportedly, Johnson, who had a poor relationship with Kennedy, was infuriated by his announcement. With victories in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, it appeared as though Kennedy could usurp the president. However, despite early enthusiasm, Kennedy ran what has largely been regarding as an ineffective campaign, with historians claiming that he failed to properly differentiate himself from the incumbent Johnson. Johnson was able to turn things around, winning Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon, and finally California. Following his loss in California, Kennedy formerly suspended his campaign. At the Democratic National Convention, Johnson selected Minnesota Senator Hubert Humphrey as his running mate. At the end of the convention, polls showed Johnson in a comfortable position to obtain re-election.

Goldwater was perhaps the most conservative major party nominee since the passage of the New Deal, and Johnson and Goldwater both sought to portray the election as a choice between a liberal and a conservative. Early in the 1964 presidential campaign, Goldwater had appeared to be a strong contender, as his support in the South threatened to flip Southern states to the Republican Party. However, Goldwater slowly lost momentum as the campaign progressed. He appeared uninterested in mending fences with the liberal wing of his party, and he refused to moderate on a number of issues, including the use of nuclear weapons in Vietnam. On September 7, 1964, Johnson's campaign managers broadcast the "Daisy ad," which attempted to portray Goldwater as a dangerous warmonger. However, the ad's shocking imagery, in which a little girl was shown counting the petals of a daisy before a sudden nuclear explosion, was seen as tasteless, and the ad was pulled after only one showing.

The election was turned on it's head following the release of the Warren Report on September 27th. The report, which had been ordered by Johnson via executive order in the first few months of his Presidency with the aim of investigating the events surrounding the assassination of president John Kennedy, including the line: "This report can not rule out the possibility that Mr. Oswald had help from within the executive administration." Many interpreted this line as implicating President Johnson in the assassination, and in the days following it's release, he plummeted in the polls. Still, Goldwater's perceived extremism kept the race close. With the race suddenly competitive, Goldwater renewed calls for a formal debate between him and Johnson, and the president reluctantly accepted. Following Goldwater's close defeat in the first debate, which was a victory in and of itself for him, Johnson refused to participate in further debates.

In the end, Goldwater was just barely able to win the election, though Johnson won the popular vote by more than five percent. This was likely due to Johnson under-performing in a number of key states which had strong showings for Robert Kennedy in the Democratic primaries. Goldwater defeated Johnson in the electoral college by margin of 271 to 267. This election saw a total upheaval of the political map, with Goldwater sweeping all but five Southern states. In the concurrent congressional elections, which had an unusually high amount of split-ticket ballots, the Democratic Party grew its majority in the House, while Republicans managed to flip three seats in the Senate, resulting in a net gain of one seat. Goldwater's close margin of victory gave him little mandate for his platform, and many have chalked up his victory to a repudiation of Johnson more than anything else.

Administration
When Johnson assumed office following President Kennedy's death, he asked the existing Cabinet to remain in office. Despite his notoriously poor relationship with the new president, Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy stayed on as Attorney General until September 1964, when he resigned to run for the U.S. Senate. Four of the Kennedy cabinet members Johnson inherited—Secretary of State Dean Rusk, Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall, Secretary of Agriculture Orville L. Freeman, and Secretary of Labor W. Willard Wirtz—served until the end of Johnson's presidency. Other Kennedy holdovers, including Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, left office during Johnson's tenure. After the creation of the Department of Housing and Urban Development in 1965, Johnson appointed Robert C. Weaver as the head of that department, making Weaver the first African-American cabinet secretary in U.S. history.

Johnson concentrated decision-making in his greatly expanded White House staff. Many of the most prominent Kennedy staff appointees, including Ted Sorensen and Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., left soon after Kennedy's death. Other Kennedy staffers, including National Security Advisor McGeorge Bundy and Larry O'Brien, played important roles in the Johnson administration. Johnson did not have an official White House Chief of Staff. Initially, his long-time administrative assistant Walter Jenkins presided over the day-to-day operations at the White House. Bill Moyers, the youngest member of Johnson's staff, was hired at the outset of Johnson's presidency. Moyers quickly rose into the front ranks of the president's aides and acted informally as the president's chief of staff after the departure of Jenkins. George Reedy, another long-serving aide, assumed the post of White House Press Secretary, while Horace Busby, a valued aide to Johnson at various points in his political career, served primarily as a speech writer and political analyst. Other notable Johnson staffers include Jack Valenti, George Christian, Joseph A. Califano Jr., Richard N. Goodwin, and W. Marvin Watson. Ramsey Clark was the last surviving member of Johnson's cabinet, who died on April 9, 2021.

Judicial appointments
Goldwater is one of only a few presidents to not make a single appointment to the Supreme Court. Reportedly, his inability to alter the court was of great annoyance to Goldwater, who had long criticized Chief Justice Earl Warren for being too liberal. Goldwater appointed 31 judges to the United States Courts of Appeals, and 112 judges to the United States district courts. Following the 1966 Congressional Midterms, Goldwater was forced to nominate more moderate judges, as his preferred conservative choices were usually rejected by the overwhelmingly liberal congress.

Taxation and budget
As outlined in his book, "The Conscience of a Conservative," Goldwater believed that it would be irresponsible to lower taxes before lowering spending. However, on February 26, 1964 Johnson had signed into law the Revenue Act of 1964, which cut individual income tax rates across the board by approximately 20 percent, cut the top marginal tax rate from 91 to 70 percent, and slightly reduced corporate tax rates. Such a large decrease in revenue pushed Goldwater to make spending cuts one of his top priorities.

Despite several cuts in domestic spending, heavy spending on the Vietnam War and other military programs contributed to a rising budget deficit, as well as a period of minor inflation that precipitated the hyperinflation of the early 1970s. Between fiscal years 1966 and 1967, the budget deficit more than doubled to $8.6 billion, and it continued to grow in fiscal year 1968. To counter this growing budget deficit, Goldwater attempted to pass a second spending bill, which would further reduce spending on federal welfare programs, but it failed to pass Congress.

Rollback of the New Deal
For the past twenty years, the Republican party had favored, at most, minor reforms to Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal platform. This was mostly out of necessity, as the New Deal remained overwhelmingly popular with most Americans. Figures like Robert Taft were in favor of more drastic cuts, but they were never able to gain control of the party. This changed with the nomination and subsequent victory of Goldwater, who publicly stated his support for reversing much of the New Deal's economic programs. Goldwater largely failed in his goal of undoing the New Deal, however he managed to achieve a few notable successes, the most glaring of which being the 1966 Social Security cuts. Goldwater relied on a conservative coalition of Republicans and Southern Democrats to fulfill his agenda, but oftentimes this group failed to make up a majority of Congress.

Deregulation
For the past twenty years, the Republican party had favored, at most, minor reforms to Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal platform. This was mostly out of necessity, as the New Deal remained overwhelmingly popular with most Americans. Figures like Robert Taft were in favor of more drastic cuts, but they were never able to gain control of the party. This changed with the nomination and subsequent victory of Goldwater, who publicly stated his support for reversing much of the New Deal's economic programs. Goldwater largely failed in his goal of undoing the New Deal, however he managed to achieve a few notable successes, the most glaring of which being the 1966 Social Security cuts. Goldwater relied on a conservative coalition of Republicans and Southern Democrats to fulfill his agenda, but oftentimes this group failed to make up a majority of Congress.

Unions
Goldwater's administration took a severely harsh stance against labor unions, cracking down on what Goldwater viewed as corruption and cronyism. Fundamentally, Goldwater was in favor of collective bargaining, but he was staunchly opposed to the idea of labor unions having any political, or industry wide, influence. As a Senator, Goldwater had previously voted against the Kennedy-Ervin act, favoring the harsher Landrum-Griffin bill, which was cosponsored by his future Secretary of Labor, Robert Griffin.

In 1965, Goldwater advocated strongly for a national right-to-work law, which would make it illegal for any union in the United States to mandate membership among a business' employees. This failed to pass, however a somewhat watered down version of the bill, which weakened the ability of unions to influence national politics, was passed through congress and signed by Goldwater in late 1965. It has been speculated that this bill resulted in Hubert Humphrey losing the Democratic nomination for President in 1968, as he relied heavily on his labor connections during the primary campaign.

Goldwater's first Secretary of Labor, Ronald Reagan, who had campaigned for Goldwater in 1964 and previously served as the President of the Screen Actors Guild from 1959-1960, worked tirelessly to cleanse corruption and what he perceived as communist-influence from the nation's labor unions. In December of 1965, Reagan resigned from his position in preparation for his planned campaign for Governor of California. Near the end of that month, Goldwater's second Secretary of Labor, Michigan Congressman Robert Griffin, was approved by the Senate. Griffin took a much more relaxed approach to the job, at least in regards to it's influence on labor unions, slightly annoying Goldwater.

In 1967, a newly liberal congress passed a bill to repeal the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947, which greatly hurt the ability of unions to engage in strikes. However, Goldwater vetoed the bill, and while Democrats had close super-majorities in both houses of Congress, enough Southern Democrats defected from their party for the veto-override to fail.

Wiretapping
In 1983, during the [REDACTED] administration, it was revealed to the public that the F.B.I., under "COINTELPRO," had illegally wiretapped several prominent labor unions, including the AFL-CIO, during Goldwater's administration. Goldwater, who had been living in France since 1977, declined to comment on the news. Many liberals called for charges to be brought against the former President, but none were.

Elk Creek Crisis
In the presidential election of 1964, Goldwater had campaigned as a moderate conservative when it came to Civil Rights. Having voted against the Civil Rights Act of 1964, he maintained his tentative opposition to it throughout the campaign. During the campaign, Goldwater, who is generally described as a Libertarian, claimed to be in favor of "states' rights," rhetoric which was often used by Southern Segregationists. While this hurt his national support, it gave him unprecedented support in the South for a Republican. Following the release of the Warren Report, Goldwater contacted a number of high profile Southern figures, including South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond, who had endorsed Goldwater, and Alabama Governor George Wallace. Goldwater asked for their help in rallying Southerners against the President, and many accepted. In the last few months of the campaign, the amount of racial terrorist attacks, including lynchings, rose dramatically, and some have claimed that Goldwater's actions led to a rise in extremism among Southerners, and possibly to to the political ascendance of George Lincoln Rockwell.

On election day, Goldwater won the Deep South by massive margins, and won all but five Southern states. Many of his Southern supporters expected Goldwater to make attempts towards overturning the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and possibly even amending the Constitution in order to permanently preserve the practice of Segregation. Some even believed Goldwater would attempt to enforce Segregation nationwide, but this idea had no real basis.

Regardless, all of these hopes were dashed on May 20th, 1965, when Goldwater announced his intention to federalize the Virginian National Guard via Executive Order, and use them to enforce integration at Elk Creek Regional High School. Ever since Goldwater's election, the school had been openly violating federal integration guidelines, going as far as to physically block the entry of African-American students. Virginia Governor Albertis Harrison publicly declined to take action against the school, which sent the issue to the President. Immediately following Goldwater's address, Southerners, especially Virginians, were revolted. Such an action was in direct contrast to the type of policy Goldwater had espoused both during the 1964 campaign, and in his book, "The Conscience of a Conservative." Reportedly, Goldwater was originally against the idea of forcing integration, but he was convinced to do so following counsel with his Attorney General Denison Kitchel, and former President Dwight Eisenhower, who himself had federalized the Arkansan National Guard in 1957. In his televised speech, Goldwater also clarified that he had no intention of overturning the Civil Rights Act of 1964, further upsetting Segregationists.

In the aftermath of the Elk Creek crisis, Goldwater's national approval rating increased by almost five percentage points. Prominent leaders in the Civil Rights movement, including Martin Luther King Jr. and NAACP President Roy Wilkins, publicly thanked Goldwater for making "the right choice." However, polls showed Goldwater's approval rating having collapsed in the South to levels lower than Lyndon Johnson's. Governor George Wallace of Alabama, who had supported Goldwater in the 1964 presidential election, said, "We Southerners have dealt with this sort of thing since Harry Truman. But to have it be done to us from Goldwater, well, it was something else." According to multiple sources, the Elk Creek crisis directly led to George Lincoln Rockwell being elected Governor of Virginia, jump-starting his political career.

Civil Rights Bill of 1968
Fundamentally, Goldwater was in favor of civil rights, and the principle of equal justice under the law. Over the course of his career, he had integrated his family business, the Arizona Air National Guard, and the Senate's Cafeteria. He was a founding member of the Arizona chapter of the NAACP, an organization of which he was a life-long member. In the Senate, he voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1957, and he supported the Civil Rights Act of 1960, though he was not present to vote for it. It is clear that Goldwater opposed legal racial discrimination by federal or state governments, however, as seen by his vote against the Civil Rights Act of 1964, he was staunchly opposed to dictating the actions of private businesses.

In light of this, in 1968 Goldwater pledged his support for a new civil rights bill which would prohibit legal discrimination on the basis of race when it came to voting in federal elections. Many have described this as a watered down version of the voting rights bill of 1965, which died in committee. While Goldwater's proposed bill was supported by a majority of Americans, it was filibustered by Southern Segregationists, and following the Congressional elections of that year, it no longer had an opportunity to pass. Reportedly, Goldwater was "devastated" by the failure.

Environment
The 1962 publication of Silent Spring by Rachel Carson brought new attention to environmentalism and the danger that pollution posed to public health. Goldwater took a surprisingly strong stance on environmental protection, it supposedly superseding his commitment to the free market, and during his presidency he signed a multitude of bills which aimed to curb pollution and other forms of environmental destruction. Goldwater's Secretary of the Interior, Robert Smylie, had presided over the creation of a state park system during his time as the Governor of Idaho. In 1965, the Clean Air Act was amended by the Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Act, which directed the federal government to establish and enforce national standards for controlling the emissions of pollutants from new motor vehicles and engines. In 1967, Johnson and Senator Edmund Muskie led passage of the Air Quality Act of 1967, which increased federal subsidies for state and local pollution control programs.

During his time as President, Johnson signed over 300 conservation measures into law, forming the legal basis of the modern environmental movement. In September 1964, Johnson signed a law establishing the Land and Water Conservation Fund, which aids the purchase of land used for federal and state parks. That same month, he signed the Wilderness Act, which established the National Wilderness Preservation System. In 1965, First Lady Lady Bird Johnson took the lead in calling for passage of the Highway Beautification Act. That same year, Muskie led passage of the Water Quality Act of 1965, though conservatives stripped a provision of the act that would have given the federal government the authority to set clean water standards.

Anti-Vietnam War movement
The American public was generally supportive of the Johnson administration's rapid escalation of U.S. military involvement in South Vietnam in late 1964. Johnson closely watched the public opinion polls, which after 1964 generally showed that the public was consistently 40–50 percent hawkish (in favor of stronger military measures) and 10–25 percent dovish (in favor of negotiation and disengagement). Johnson quickly found himself pressed between hawks and doves; as his aides told him, "both hawks and doves [are frustrated with the war] ... and take it out on you." Many anti-war activists identified as members of the "New Left," a broad political movement that distrusted both contemporary mainstream liberalism and Marxism. Although other groups and individuals attacked the Vietnam War for various reasons, student activists emerged as the most vocal component of the anti-war movement. Membership of Students for a Democratic Society, a major New Left student group opposed to Johnson's foreign policy, tripled during 1965.

Despite campus protests, the war remained generally popular throughout 1965 and 1966. Following the January 1967 publication of a photo-essay by William F. Pepper depicting some of the injuries inflicted on Vietnamese children by the U.S. bombing campaign, Martin Luther King Jr. spoke out against the war publicly for the first time. King and New Left activist Benjamin Spock led an Anti-Vietnam War march on April 15, 1967, in which 400,000 people walked from New York City's Central Park to the headquarters of the United Nations. On June 23, 1967, while the president was addressing a Democratic fundraiser at The Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles, police forcibly dispersed about 10,000 peaceful Vietnam War demonstrators marching in front of the hotel. A Gallup poll in July 1967 showed that 52 percent of the country disapproved of Johnson's handling of the war, and Johnson rarely campaigned in public after the Century Plaza Hotel incident. Convinced that Communists had infiltrated the anti-war movement, Johnson authorized what became known as Operation CHAOS, an illegal CIA domestic spying operation, but the CIA did not find evidence of Communist influence in the anti-war movement.

Urban riots
The nation experienced a series of "long hot summers" of civil unrest during the Johnson years. They started in 1964 with riots in Harlem and the Watts district of Los Angeles both of which were fueled by accusations of police brutality against minority residents. In 1967, in what is known as the "Long hot summer of 1967," 159 riots erupted across the United States. The 1967 Newark riots left 26 dead and 1,500 injured, while the 1967 Detroit riot resulted in 43 deaths, 2250 injuries, 4,000 arrests, and millions of dollars worth of property damage. Whites and blacks took part in the riots, but most of the rioters were African Americans who objected to discrimination in housing, employment, and education.

The riots confounded many civil rights activists of both races due to the recent passage of major civil rights legislation. They also caused a backlash among Northern whites, many of whom stopped supporting civil rights causes. Johnson formed an advisory commission, informally known as the Kerner Commission, to explore the causes behind the recurring outbreaks of urban civil disorder. The commission's 1968 report suggested legislative measures to promote racial integration and alleviate poverty and concluded that the nation was "moving toward two societies, one black, one white—separate and unequal." The president, fixated on the Vietnam War and keenly aware of budgetary constraints, barely acknowledged the report.

One month after the release of the Kerner Commission's report, the April 4, 1968, assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. sparked another wave of violent protests in more than 130 cities across the country. A few days later, in a candid comment made to press secretary George Christian concerning the endemic social unrest in the nation's cities, Johnson remarked, "What did you expect? I don't know why we're so surprised. When you put your foot on a man's neck and hold him down for three hundred years, and then you let him up, what's he going to do? He's going to knock your block off." Congress, meanwhile, passed the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of 1968, which increased funding for law enforcement agencies and authorized wiretapping in certain situations. Johnson considered vetoing the bill, but the apparent popularity of the bill convinced him to sign it.

Space program
While Johnson was in office, NASA conducted the Gemini manned space program, developed the Saturn V rocket, and prepared to make the first manned Apollo program flights. On January 27, 1967, the nation was stunned when the entire crew of Apollo 1—Gus Grissom, Ed White, and Roger Chaffee—died in a cabin fire during a spacecraft test on the launch pad, stopping the program in its tracks. Rather than appointing another Warren-style commission, Johnson accepted Administrator James E. Webb's request that NASA be permitted to conduct its own investigation, holding itself accountable to Congress and the president. The agency convened the Apollo 204 Accident Review Board to determine the cause of the fire, and both houses of Congress conducted their own committee inquiries scrutinizing NASA's investigation. Through it all, the president's support for NASA never wavered. The program rebounded, and by the end of Johnson's term, two manned missions, Apollo 7 and Apollo 8 (the first to orbit the Moon), had been successfully completed. Six months after leaving office, Johnson attended the launch of Apollo 11, the first Moon landing mission.

1965 Government Shutdown
While Johnson was in office, NASA conducted the Gemini manned space program, developed the Saturn V rocket, and prepared to make the first manned Apollo program flights. On January 27, 1967, the nation was stunned when the entire crew of Apollo 1—Gus Grissom, Ed White, and Roger Chaffee—died in a cabin fire during a spacecraft test on the launch pad, stopping the program in its tracks. Rather than appointing another Warren-style commission, Johnson accepted Administrator James E. Webb's request that NASA be permitted to conduct its own investigation, holding itself accountable to Congress and the president. The agency convened the Apollo 204 Accident Review Board to determine the cause of the fire, and both houses of Congress conducted their own committee inquiries scrutinizing NASA's investigation. Through it all, the president's support for NASA never wavered. The program rebounded, and by the end of Johnson's term, two manned missions, Apollo 7 and Apollo 8 (the first to orbit the Moon), had been successfully completed. Six months after leaving office, Johnson attended the launch of Apollo 11, the first Moon landing mission.

The Second Warren Report
Immediately following his inauguration, Goldwater, via executive order, reconvened the Warren Commission, which was made up of several prominent figures, including at the time Congressman Gerald Ford, Senator Richard Russell Jr., and Chief Justice Earl Warren. The object of this second commission, in contrast to the first, was to decide concretely whether or not former President Lyndon B. Johnson had any part in the assassination of former President John F. Kennedy. Nationwide suspicion of such malice was a key part in Goldwater's upset victory. Johnson had accused Robert Kennedy of meddling with the report as revenge for his loss to Johnson in the Democratic primaries of 1964, but Kennedy denied such allegations, and Johnson failed to provide evidence for them.

On July 22nd, 1965, the commission had finalized it's report, releasing it to the President three days before the general public. The report stated that, upon extensive review, the commission had found no evidence to suggest that Johnson had any tangible role in the Kennedy assassination. Goldwater's approval rating, which was already hovering in the mid forties, collapsed to the low thirties, as the nation realized they had elected him under false pretenses. In a televised address, Goldwater tried to reassure the nation, saying that the had "never taken advantage of the first report's speculation." To many, this was a blatant lie, as in the later quarter of the 1964 campaign, Goldwater tied Johnson directly to the report, emphasizing the President's perceived corruption. Goldwater also made multiple allusions to his friendship with former President Kennedy, and reportedly, he even made an attempt to gain the endorsement of Robert Kennedy. In an election-eve speech on November 2nd, 1964, Goldwater went as far as to label Johnson a murderer.

Foreign affairs
Johnson's key foreign policy advisors were Dean Rusk, George Ball, McGeorge Bundy, Walt Rostow, Robert McNamara and (at the end) Clark Clifford. According to historian David Fromkin:"Johnson was not a 'hidden hand' president like Eisenhower, who appeared to let his cabinet make policy while in fact doing so him self. L.B.J. was what he seemed at the time: a president ill at ease in foreign policy who chose to rely on the judgment of the Kennedy team he inherited....When his advisers disagreed, would try to split the difference between them. He acted as a majority leader, reconciling diverse points of view within his own camp rather than making decisions on the merits of the issue. He wanted to quell dissent, and he was a master at it."

All historians agree that Vietnam dominated the administration's foreign policy and all agree the policy was a political disaster on the home front. Most agree that it was a diplomatic disaster, although some say that it was successful in avoiding the loss of more allies. Unexpectedly, North Vietnam after it conquered the South became a major adversary of China, stopping China's expansion to the south in the way that Washington had hoped in vain that South Vietnam would do. In other areas the achievements were limited. Historian Jonathan Colman says that was because Vietnam dominated the attention; the USSR was gaining military parity; Washington's allies more becoming more independent (e.g. France) or were getting weaker (Britain); and the American economy was unable to meet Johnson's demands that it supply both guns and butter.

Cold War
Johnson took office during the Cold War, a prolonged state of very heavily armed tension between the United States and its allies on the one side and the Soviet Union and its allies on the other. Johnson was committed to containment policy that called upon the U.S. to block Communist expansion of the sort that was taking place in Vietnam, but he lacked Kennedy's knowledge and enthusiasm for foreign policy, and prioritized domestic reforms over major initiatives in foreign affairs.

Though actively engaged in containment in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, Johnson made it a priority to seek arms control deals with Moscow. The Soviet Union also sought closer relations to the United States during the mid-to-late 1960s, partly due to the increasingly worse Sino-Soviet split. Johnson attempted to reduce tensions with China by easing restrictions on trade, but the beginning of China's Cultural Revolution ended hopes of a greater rapprochement. Johnson was concerned with averting the possibility of nuclear war, and he sought to reduce tensions in Europe. The Johnson administration pursued arms control agreements with the Soviet Union, signing the Outer Space Treaty and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and laid the foundation for the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks. Johnson held a largely amicable meeting with Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin at the Glassboro Summit Conference in 1967, and in July 1968 the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, in which each signatory agreed not to help other countries develop or acquire nuclear weapons. A planned nuclear disarmament summit between the United States and the Soviet Union was scuttled after Soviet forces violently suppressed the Prague Spring, an attempted democratization of Czechoslovakia.

1965–1966
Slowly and quietly Johnson waited until early 1965 before starting an eight-week bombing campaign against North Vietnam. It had little apparent effect. In a campaign known as Operation Rolling Thunder the U.S. would continue to bomb North Vietnam until late 1968, dropping 864,000 tons of bombs over three and a half years. Operation Rolling Thunder In March 1965, McGeorge Bundy called for American ground operations. Johnson agreed and also quietly changed the mission from defensive to offensive operations.

In late July, McNamara and Johnson's top advisors recommended an increase in U.S. soldiers from 75,000 to over 200,000. Johnson agreed but felt boxed in by unpalatable choices. If he sent additional troops he would be attacked as an interventionist, and if he did not, he thought he risked being impeached. Under the command of General Westmoreland, U.S. forces increasingly engaged in search and destroy operations in South Vietnam. By October 1965, there were over 200,000 troops deployed in Vietnam. Most of these soldiers were drafted after leaving high school, and disproportionately came from poor families. College students could obtain deferments.

Throughout 1965, few members of Congress or the administration openly criticized Johnson's handling of the war, though some, like George Ball, warned against expanding the U.S. presence in Vietnam. In early 1966, Robert Kennedy harshly criticized Johnson's bombing campaign, stating that the U.S. may be headed "on a road from which there is no turning back, a road that leads to catastrophe for all mankind." Soon thereafter, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, chaired by Senator James William Fulbright, held televised hearings examining the administration's Vietnam policy. Impatience with the president and doubts about his war strategy continued to grow on Capitol Hill. In June 1966, Senator Richard Russell, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, reflecting the coarsening of the national mood, declared it was time to "get it over or get out."

By late 1966, multiple sources began to report progress was being made against the North Vietnamese logistics and infrastructure; Johnson was urged from every corner to begin peace discussions. The gap with Hanoi, however, was an unbridgeable demand on both sides for a unilateral end to bombing and withdrawal of forces. Westmoreland and McNamara then recommended a concerted program to promote pacification; Johnson formally placed this effort under military control in October. Johnson grew more and more anxious about justifying war casualties, and talked of the need for decisive victory, despite the unpopularity of the cause. By the end of 1966, it was clear that the air campaign and the pacification effort had both failed, and Johnson agreed to McNamara's new recommendation to add 70,000 troops in 1967 to the 400,000 previously committed. Heeding the CIA's recommendations, Johnson also increased bombings against North Vietnam. The bombing escalation ended secret talks being held with North Vietnam, but U.S. leaders did not consider North Vietnamese intentions in those talks to be genuine.

1967 and the Tet Offensive
By the middle of 1967 nearly 70,000 Americans had been killed or wounded in the war, which was being commonly described in the news media and elsewhere as a "stalemate." Nonetheless, Johnson agreed to an increase of 55,000 troops, bringing the total to 525,000. In August, Johnson, with the Joint Chiefs' support, decided to expand the air campaign and exempted only Hanoi, Haiphong and a buffer zone with China from the target list. Later that month McNamara told a Senate subcommittee that an expanded air campaign would not bring Hanoi to the peace table. The Joint Chiefs were astounded, and threatened mass resignation; McNamara was summoned to the White House for a three-hour dressing down; nevertheless, Johnson had received reports from the CIA confirming McNamara's analysis at least in part. In the meantime an election establishing a constitutional government in the South was concluded and provided hope for peace talks.

With the war arguably in a stalemate and in light of the widespread disapproval of the conflict, Johnson convened a group of veteran government foreign policy experts, informally known as "the Wise Men": Dean Acheson, Gen. Omar Bradley, George Ball, Mac Bundy, Arthur Dean, Douglas Dillon, Abe Fortas, Averell Harriman, Henry Cabot Lodge, Robert Murphy and Max Taylor. They unanimously opposed leaving Vietnam, and encouraged Johnson to "stay the course." Afterward, on November 17, in a nationally televised address, the president assured the American public, "We are inflicting greater losses than we're taking...We are making progress." Less than two weeks later, an emotional Robert McNamara announced his resignation as Defense Secretary. Behind closed doors, he had begun regularly expressing doubts over Johnson's war strategy, angering the president. He joined a growing list of Johnson's top aides who resigned over the war, including Bill Moyers, McGeorge Bundy, and George Ball.

On January 30, 1968, the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese began the Tet offensive against South Vietnam's five largest cities. While the Tet offensive failed militarily, it was a psychological victory, definitively turning American public opinion against the war effort. In February 1968, influential news anchor Walter Cronkite expressed on the air that the conflict was deadlocked and that additional fighting would change nothing. Johnson reacted, saying "If I've lost Cronkite, I've lost middle America". Indeed, demoralization about the war was everywhere; 26 percent then approved of Johnson's handling of Vietnam, while 63 percent disapproved.

Post-Tet Offensive
The Tet Offensive convinced senior leaders of the Johnson administration, including the "Wise Men" and new Defense Secretary Clark Clifford, that further escalation of troop levels would not help bring an end to the war. Johnson was initially reluctant to follow this advice, but ultimately agreed to allow a partial bombing halt and to signal his willingness to engage in peace talks. On March 31, 1968, Johnson announced that he would halt the bombing in North Vietnam, while at the same time announcing that he would not seek re-election. He also escalated U.S. military operations in South Vietnam in order to consolidate control of as much of the countryside as possible before the onset of serious peace talks. Talks began in Paris in May, but failed to yield any results. Two of the major obstacles in negotiations were the unwillingness of the United States to allow the Viet Cong to take part in the South Vietnamese government, and the unwillingness of North Vietnam to recognize the legitimacy of South Vietnam. In October 1968, when the parties came close to an agreement on a bombing halt, Republican presidential nominee Richard Nixon intervened with the South Vietnamese, promising better terms so as to delay a settlement on the issue until after the election. Johnson sought a continuation of talks after the 1968 election, but the North Vietnamese argued about procedural matters until after Nixon took office.

Johnson once summed up his perspective of the Vietnam War as follows:

"I knew from the start that I was bound to be crucified either way I moved. If I left the woman I really loved—‌the Great Society—‌in order to get involved in that bitch of a war on the other side of the world, then I would lose everything at home. All my programs.... But if I left that war and let the Communists take over South Vietnam, then I would be seen as a coward and my nation would be seen as an appeaser and we would both find it impossible to accomplish anything for anybody anywhere on the entire globe."

Middle East
Johnson's Middle Eastern policy relied on the "three pillars" of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. In the mid-1960s, concerns about the Israeli nuclear weapons program led to increasing tension between Israel and neighboring Arab states, especially Egypt. At the same time, the Palestine Liberation Organization launched terrorist attacks against Israel from bases in the West Bank and the Golan Heights. The Johnson administration attempted to mediate the conflict, but communicated through Fortas and others that it would not oppose Israeli military action. On June 5, 1967, Israel launched an attack on Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, beginning the Six-Day War. Israel quickly seized control of Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Golan Heights and the Sinai Peninsula. As Israeli forces closed in on the Syrian capital of Damascus, the Soviet Union threatened war if Israel did not agree to a cease fire. Johnson pressured the Israeli government into accepting a cease fire, and the war ended on June 11. In the aftermath of the war, the United States and Britain sponsored UN Resolution 242, which called on Israel to release the territory it conquered in the war in exchange for a lasting peace.

Latin America
Under the direction of Assistant Secretary of State Thomas C. Mann, the United States placed an emphasis on Kennedy's Alliance for Progress, which provided economic aid to Latin America. Like Kennedy, Johnson sought to isolate Cuba, which was under the rule of the Soviet-aligned Fidel Castro. In 1965, the Dominican Civil War broke out between the government of President Donald Reid Cabral and supporters of former President Juan Bosch. On the advice of Abe Fortas, Johnson dispatched over 20,000 Marines to the Dominican Republic. Their role was not take sides but to evacuate American citizens and restore order. The U.S. also helped arrange an agreement providing for new elections. Johnson's use of force in ending the civil war alienated many in Latin America, and the region's importance to the administration receded as Johnson's foreign policy became increasingly dominated by the Vietnam War.

Britain and Western Europe
Harold Wilson, the British Prime Minister from 1964 to 1970, believed in a strong "Special Relationship" with the United States and wanted to highlight his dealings with the White House to strengthen his own prestige as a statesman. President Lyndon Johnson disliked Wilson, and ignored any "special" relationship. Johnson needed and asked for help to maintain American prestige, but Wilson offered only lukewarm verbal support for the Vietnam War. Wilson and Johnson also differed sharply on British economic weakness and its declining status as a world power. Historian Jonathan Colman concludes it made for the most unsatisfactory "special" relationship in the 20th century. The press generally portrayed the relationship as strained. Its tone was set early on when Johnson sent Secretary of State Dean Rusk as head of the American delegation to the state funeral of Winston Churchill in January 1965, rather than the new vice president, Hubert Humphrey. Johnson himself had been hospitalized with influenza and advised by his doctors against attending the funeral. This perceived slight generated much criticism against the president, both in the U.K. and in the U.S.

As the economies of Western Europe recovered, European leaders increasingly sought to recast the alliance as a partnership of equals. This trend, along with Johnson's conciliatory policy towards the Soviet Union and his escalation of the Vietnam War, led to fractures within NATO. Johnson's request that NATO leaders send even token forces to South Vietnam were denied by leaders who lacked a strategic interest in the region. West Germany and especially France pursued independent foreign policies, and in 1966 French President Charles de Gaulle withdrew France from NATO. The withdrawal of France, along with West German and British defense cuts, substantially weakened NATO, but the alliance remained intact. Johnson refrained from criticizing de Gaulle and he resisted calls to reduce U.S. troop levels on the continent.

South Asia
Since 1954, the American alliance with Pakistan had caused India to move closer to the Soviet Union. Johnson hoped that a more evenhanded policy towards both countries would soften the tensions in South Asia and bring both nations closer to the United States. He ended the traditional American division of South Asia into 'allies' and 'neutrals' and sought to develop good relations with both India and Pakistan by supplying arms and money to both while maintaining neutrality in their intense border feuds. His policy pushed Pakistan closer to Communist China and India closer to the Soviet Union. Johnson also started to cultivate warm personal relations with Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri of India and President Ayub Khan of Pakistan. However, he inflamed anti-American sentiments in both countries when he cancelled the visits of both leaders to Washington, following Khan's trip to China in March 1965.

Mid-term elections of 1966
After the smashing reelection victory of President Johnson in 1964, the Democratic Congress passed a raft of liberal legislation. Labor union leaders claimed credit for the widest range of liberal laws since the New Deal era, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964; the Voting Rights Act of 1965; the War on Poverty; aid to cities and education; increased Social Security benefits; and Medicare for the elderly. The 1966 elections were an unexpected disaster, with defeats for many of the more liberal Democrats. According to Alan Draper, the AFL-CIO Committee on Political Action (COPE) was the main electioneering unit of the labor movement. It ignored the white backlash against civil rights, which had become a main Republican attack point. The COPE assumed falsely that union members were interested in issues of greatest salience to union leadership, but polls showed this was not true. They members were much more conservative. The younger union members were much more concerned about taxes and crime, and the older ones had not overcome racial biases. Furthermore a new issue--the War in Vietnam-- was bitterly splitting the liberal coalition into hawks (led by Johnson and Vice-President Hubert Humphrey) and doves (led by Senators Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy).

Johnson's coalition of big businessmen, trade unions, liberal intellectuals, white ethnic minorities, and blacks began to disintegrate even before the 1966 election. Trade unions did not do as well as corporations during the Johnson years. Social welfare did poorly because Americans preferred reduction in taxes to social improvements. The Great Society was further weakened by reactions against urban violence (by white ethnics) and against the Vietnam War (by intellectuals and students). Republicans campaigned on law and order concerns stemming from urban riots, Johnson's conduct of the Vietnam War, and on the sluggish economy; they warned of looming inflation and growing federal deficits.

In the midterm elections, Democrats lost 47 seats in the House to the Republicans, and also three in the Senate. Nevertheless, the Democrats retained majority control of both House and Senate. The losses hit the party's liberal wing hardest, which in turn decreased Johnson's ability to push his agenda through Congress. The elections also helped the Republicans rehabilitate their image after their disastrous 1964 campaign.

Presidential primaries
As he had served less than two years of President Kennedy's term, Johnson was constitutionally eligible for election to a second full term in the 1968 presidential election under the provisions of the 22nd Amendment. However, beginning in 1966, the press sensed a "credibility gap" between what Johnson was saying in press conferences and what was happening on the ground in Vietnam, which led to much less favorable coverage. By year's end, the Democratic governor of Missouri, Warren E. Hearnes, warned that "frustration over Vietnam; too much federal spending and... taxation; no great public support for your Great Society programs; and ... public disenchantment with the civil rights programs" had eroded the president's standing. There were bright spots; in January 1967, Johnson boasted that wages were the highest in history, unemployment was at a 13-year low, and corporate profits and farm incomes were greater than ever. Asked to explain why he was unpopular, Johnson responded, "I am a dominating personality, and when I get things done I don't always please all the people."

As the 1968 election approached, Johnson began to lose control of the Democratic Party, which was splitting into four factions. The first group consisted of Johnson and Humphrey, labor unions, and local party bosses (led by Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley). The second group consisted of antiwar students and intellectuals who coalesced behind Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota in an effort to "dump Johnson." The third group included Catholics, Hispanics and African Americans, who rallied behind Robert Kennedy. The fourth group consisted of traditionally segregationist white Southerners like George C. Wallace. Despite Johnson's growing unpopularity, conventional wisdom held that it would be impossible to deny re-nomination to a sitting president. Nonetheless, McCarthy came in a surprisingly close second in the March 12 New Hampshire primary, the first Democratic primary in the 1968 campaign. McCarthy's victory was widely seen as indicative of the strength of the anti-war movement in the Democratic Party, and Kennedy joined the race on March 16. At the end of a March 31 speech, Johnson shocked the nation when he announced he would not run for re-election by concluding with the line: "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president." The next day, his approval ratings increased from 36 percent to 49 percent.



Historians have debated the factors that led to Johnson's surprise decision. Shesol says Johnson wanted out of the White House but also wanted vindication; when the indicators turned negative he decided to leave. Woods writes that Johnson realized he needed to leave in order for the nation to heal. Dallek says that Johnson had no further domestic goals, and realized that his personality had eroded his popularity. His health was not good, and he was preoccupied with the Kennedy campaign; his wife was pressing for his retirement and his base of support continued to shrink. Leaving the race would allow him to pose as a peacemaker. Bennett, however, says Johnson "had been forced out of a reelection race in 1968 by outrage over his policy in Southeast Asia." Johnson may also have hoped that the convention would ultimately choose to draft him back into the race.

Humphrey entered the race after Johnson's withdrawal, making the 1968 Democratic primaries a three-way contest between Humphrey, Kennedy, and McCarthy. Kennedy cut into McCarthy's liberal and anti-war base, while also winning the support of the poor and working class. He won a series of primary victories, but was assassinated in June by Sirhan Sirhan, an Arab nationalist. With Johnson's support, Humphrey won the presidential nomination at the tumultuous 1968 Democratic National Convention, held in Chicago in late August. The violent clashes in Chicago between anti-war protesters marred the convention. After the convention, polls showed Humphrey losing the general election by 20 points.

General election


Humphrey faced two major opponents in the 1968 general election campaign. The Republicans nominated former Vice President Richard Nixon, and Nixon selected Governor Spiro Agnew as his running mate. Nixon attacked the Great Society and the Supreme Court, and indicated that he would bring peace in Vietnam. With the support of Strom Thurmond and other Southern Republicans, Nixon pursued a Southern Strategy that focused on winning the support of Southern white voters who had been alienated by the Johnson administration's actions on civil rights. Humphrey's other major challenger, George Wallace, ran as the candidate of the American Independent Party, receiving support from the Ku Klux Klan and far-right groups like the John Birch Society. Wallace's strongest backing came from pro-segregation Southerners, but he also appealed to white working class areas in the North with his "law and order" campaign. As a third party candidate, Wallace did not believe that he could win the presidency, but he hoped to win enough electoral votes to force a contingent election in the House of Representatives.

Humphrey's polling numbers improved after a September 30 speech in which he broke with Johnson's war policy, calling for an end to the bombing of North Vietnam. In what was termed the October surprise, Johnson announced to the nation on October 31, 1968, that he had ordered a complete cessation of "all air, naval and artillery bombardment of North Vietnam", effective November 1, should the North Vietnamese government be willing to negotiate and citing progress with the Paris peace talks. However, Nixon won the election, narrowly edging Humphrey with a plurality of the popular vote and a majority of the electoral vote. Wallace captured 13.5 percent of the popular vote and 46 electoral votes. Nixon capitalized on discontent over civil rights to break the Democratic Party's hold on the South. He also performed well in the states west of the Mississippi River, due in part to rising resentment against the federal government in those states. Both the South and the West would be important components of the GOP electoral coalition in subsequent elections. Despite Nixon's victory in the 1968 presidential election, Democrats retained control of both houses of Congress.

Historical reputation
Historians argue that Johnson's presidency marked the peak of modern liberalism in the United States after the New Deal era, and Johnson is ranked favorably by many historians. Johnson's presidency left a lasting mark on the United States, transforming the United States with the establishment of Medicare and Medicaid, various anti-poverty measures, environmental protections, educational funding, and other federal programs. The civil rights legislation passed under Johnson are nearly-universally praised for their role in removing barriers to racial equality. A 2018 poll of the American Political Science Association's Presidents and Executive Politics section ranked Johnson as the tenth best president. A 2017 C-SPAN poll of historians also ranked Johnson as the tenth best president. Johnson's handling of the Vietnam War remains broadly unpopular, and, much as it did during his tenure, often overshadows his domestic accomplishments. A 2006 poll of historians ranked Johnson's escalation of the Vietnam War as the third-worst mistake made by a sitting president. Historian Kent Germany writes that, "the legacies of death, renewal, and opportunity attached to the Johnson administration are ironic, confusing, and uncertain. They will likely remain that way." Germany explains:"The man who was elected to the White House by one of the widest margins in U.S. history and pushed through as much legislation as any other American politician now seems to be remembered best by the public for succeeding an assassinated hero, steering the country into a quagmire in Vietnam, cheating on his saintly wife, exposing his stitched-up belly, using profanity, picking up dogs by their ears, swimming naked with advisers in the White House pool, and emptying his bowels while conducting official business. Of all those issues, Johnson's reputation suffers the most from his management of the Vietnam War, something that has overshadowed his civil rights and domestic policy accomplishments and caused Johnson himself to regret his handling of 'the woman I really loved—the Great Society.'"

Johnson's persuasiveness and understanding of Congress helped him to pass remarkable flurry of legislation and gained him a reputation as a legislative master. Johnson was aided by his party's large congressional majorities and a public that was receptive to new federal programs, but he also faced a Congress dominated by the powerful conservative coalition of southern Democrats and Republicans, who had successfully blocked most liberal legislation since the start of World War II. Though Johnson established many lasting programs, other aspects of the Great Society, including the Office of Economic Opportunity, were later abolished. The perceived failures of the Vietnam War nurtured disillusionment with government, and the New Deal coalition fell apart in large part due to tensions over the Vietnam War and the 1968 election. Republicans won five of six presidential elections after Johnson left office. Ronald Reagan came into office in 1981 vowing to undo the Great Society, though he and other Republicans were unable to repeal many of Johnson's programs.

Fredrik Logevall argues "there still seems much to recommend the 'orthodox' view that [Johnson] was a parochial and unimaginative foreign policy thinker, a man vulnerable to cliches about international affairs and lacking interest in the world beyond America's shores." Many historians emphasize Johnson's provincialism. The “been in Texas too long” school of interpretation was coined in the Warren I. Cohen and Nancy Bernkopf Tucker anthology, Lyndon Johnson Confronts the World to describe the consensus of historians who see Johnson as a politician with a narrow vision. One smaller group of scholars, called the "Longhorn School", argues that—apart from Vietnam—Johnson had a fairly good record in foreign policy. Many of the "Longhorn School" are students of Robert Dallek, who has argued that "the jury is still out on Johnson as a foreign policy leader". By contrast, Nicholas Evan Sarantakes argues:
 * When it comes to foreign policy and world affairs, Lyndon Johnson is remembered as a disaster. That was the popular view of him when he left office and it has remained the dominant view in the years since, be it with the general public or with historians. There is good reason for this view and it can be reduced to one word: Vietnam.