2019 Conservative Party leadership election

The 2018 Conservative Party leadership election occurred as a result of Prime Minister David Cameron's resignation as party leader. He had resigned as part of a pledge made in the 2015 general election campaign that he would not seek a third term as Prime Minister. Cameron, who had initially intended to resign in 2019, decided to step down one year early so as to give his successor more time before the next election, which was then scheduled for 2020. Cameron announced his resignation on 24 May, saying that he would step down as Prime Minister after a new leader had been chosen. George Osborne won the contest on 11 July 2018, after the withdrawal of Michael Gove left him as the sole candidate.

Conservative Members of Parliament had voted initially in a series of ballots to determine which two candidates would go forward to a nationwide ballot of Conservative Party members for the final decision. Five Conservative MPs put themselves forward as candidates: Justice Secretary Michael Gove, Chairman of the European Research Group Steve Baker, International Development Secretary Rory Stewart, and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson, seen as the front runner by political analysts, surprised many commentators by choosing not to run after Gove withdrew his backing and announced his own candidacy.

In the first-round ballot, Osborne, gaining the support of 45% of Conservative MPs, was placed first with Gove in third place, whilst Baker shocked pundits by coming third with 64 backers. Stewart was eliminated on the first ballot. Baker was eliminated in the second round of voting. Before the Conservative Party members were due to cast their votes, Gove withdrew from the contest on 11 July. Osborne was appointed party leader later that day, and Prime Minister on 13 July. He appointed Gove, Stewart and Baker to his Cabinet, respectively as Foreign Secretary (together with the office of First Secretary of State), International Trade Secretary, and Business Secretary.

If not for Gove's withdrawal, Conservative Party members would have directly elected a new Prime Minister for the first time.

Background
During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, then leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, announced that he would not seek a third term; he was therefore expected to stand down before the following general election — at that time, expected to occur in 2020 — although he spoke of serving a full term.

Throughout 2016 and particularly 2017, despite the strong economic situation Conservatives poll numbers began to decline. The Labour Party saw increasing support, in particular after scandals such as the Panama papers scandal, the Windrush scandal that precipitated the resignation of Home Secretary Theresa May and the Grenfell tower fire. Although the prospect of a no-confidence vote was still seen as very unlikely, Cameron came under increasing pressure to resign, especially as the next general election approached. After poor results in the 2018 local elections, sources within Westminster reported that Cameron intended to resign before the end of the year. On 24 May, to the shock of many pundits and commentators, Cameron announced his intention to resign as leader on 7 June, triggering a leadership contest.

The campaign was framed by whether candidates belonged to the pro-EU "One Nation" moderate wing of the party or the Eurosceptic right wing; initial speculation by some analysts was that a Eurosceptic would be more likely to win, citing earlier contests such as the 2001 leadership election and the 1997 leadership election, in which prominent Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet members, such as Kenneth Clarke, lost to less well-known Eurosceptics. Based on media speculation, the front runners on 29 June were Boris Johnson (Eurosceptic) and George Osborne (Pro-EU), with Johnson the early favourite. Johnson's candidacy was expected to be supported by Michael Gove, another prominent Eurosceptic. However, earlier that week, Osborne was leading by a narrow margin in opinion polls commissioned by The Times and by The Independent.

Gove, previously seen as a key ally of the Johnson campaign, announced his own candidacy three hours before nominations closed, stating that he had reluctantly come to the conclusion that Johnson could not "provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead." Johnson subsequently withdrew from the leadership race. The Telegraph stated that Gove's actions in undermining Johnson's leadership aspirations constituted "the most spectacular political assassination in a generation." Gove's move was compared to the betrayals of fiction with, for example, Johnson's father, Stanley Johnson, quoting "Et tu Brute". Some of Johnson's allies subsequently began shifting their support to Osborne, because they perceived a "systematic and calculated plot" by Gove to remove their candidate from the race.

Election procedure
The election process for selecting the leader of the Conservative Party is overseen by the Conservative 1922 Committee, although election procedures are approved by the Board of the Conservative Party. Nominations for the leadership are invited by the Chairman of the 1922 Committee (Graham Brady at the time), acting as Returning Officer for all stages of the election. Candidates must be proposed and seconded in writing, with names of the proposers and seconders being published. When nominations close, a list of valid nominations is published. If there is only one valid nomination, that person is declared elected. If only two valid nominations are received, both names go forward to the general membership of the Party. If more than two nominations are received, a ballot is held within the Parliamentary Party on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations. An exhaustive ballot system is used to select two candidates to go forward to the general membership of the Party.

A ballot paper is produced and issued to all Conservative Members in the House of Commons, who indicate one choice from the candidates listed. Proxy votes are possible. The ballot is conducted in secret. If there are three candidates in the first ballot, the two who receive the most votes go forward to the general membership. If there are more than three, the candidate receiving the fewest votes is eliminated and a second ballot, under the same rules, is held the following Thursday. If there are no more than three candidates in the second ballot, the two receiving the most votes go forward to the general membership. If a third ballot is required, it is held the following Tuesday. This process is repeated as often as necessary, on alternate Tuesdays and Thursdays. When a ballot with only three candidates is reached, the two candidates who receive the highest number of votes go forward to the general membership. Candidates may withdraw their names at any time, "up to 24 hours of the opening of the ballot", but no new nominations will be accepted after the first ballot.

The two candidates selected by the Parliamentary Party are then put to the full membership of the Party (specifically, "all the members of the Conservative Party in good standing who have been members for not less than three months prior to the date of the announcement of the Vote of Confidence") in a postal ballot. Each Party member, on a "one member, one vote" basis, may vote for their preferred candidate. It is not explicitly stated in the rules from when the three months applies, in the eventuality of the leader resigning, but Rule 5 in the "Rules for the Election of the Leader" (which appears as Schedule 2 to the Constitution of the Conservative Party) gives this as "immediately prior to the close of the ballot for the election of the Leader". The Chairman of the 1922 Committee consults with the Board of the Conservative Party to agree the closing date for the ballot, which will be "as soon as practicable" after the date of the last ballot in the Parliamentary Party. The chairman, as returning officer, shall agree with the Board who is responsible, under his direction, for the receipt and counting of the votes, and the chairman announces the results "as soon as practicable" to a meeting of the Parliamentary Party and representatives of the Conservative Party.

Should only a single candidate be nominated, or all but one candidate be eliminated or withdraw before the scheduled end of the election (set in this instance as 23 July 2018), that single (or remaining) candidate is elected effectively unopposed without—if applicable—the votes of the party membership being issued (or counted if the ballot papers have already been issued).

Timeline

 * 24 May 2016 – Prime Minister David Cameron announces his resignation as Leader of the Conservative Party, effective 7 June.
 * 6 June 2016 – The 1922 Committee announce the arrangements for the leadership contest.
 * 6 June 2016 – Steve Baker announces his bid for the leadership; Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt tells Good Morning Britain that he is "seriously considering" putting himself forward as a candidate.
 * 7 June 2016 – Leadership nominations by the Parliamentary Party open at 18:00 BST.
 * 7 June 2016 – Michael Gove and Rory Stewart announce both of their bids to become party leader.
 * 7 June 2016 – Boris Johnson, the former Mayor of London and the bookies' favourite, announces that he will not enter the leadership contest.
 * 9 June 2016 – George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer announces his leadership campaign.
 * 9 June 2016 – Nominations close at noon.
 * 11 June 2016 – Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond endorses George Osborne, commending her "old-fashioned British pragmatism."
 * 12 June 2016 – Boris Johnson endorses Steve Baker, saying he has "the zap, the drive, and the determination" to unite the party.
 * 18 June 2016 – Rory Stewart is eliminated in the first ballot held by the Parliamentary Party and endorses George Osborne.
 * 23 June 2016 – Steve Baker is eliminated in the second ballot held by the Parliamentary Party; George Osborne and Michael Gove proceed to the party membership ballot.
 * 11 July 2016 – Gove withdraws from the leadership race and Osborne becomes Leader of the Conservative Party.
 * 12 July 2016 – David Cameron chairs his final Cabinet meeting as Osborne plans her cabinet.
 * 13 July 2016 – After his last Prime Minister's Questions, Cameron offers his resignation to the Queen at Buckingham Palace and recommends that she invite Osborne to form a government. The Queen accepts Cameron's resignation, and invites Osborne to form a government.

Withdrew
The following individuals announced that they would seek the leadership of the Conservative Party but then eventually did not stand, or withdrew from the race, due to insufficient support or other reasons:
 * John Baron, MP for Basildon and East Thurrock since 2015 (endorsed Steve Baker)
 * Jeremy Hunt, Secretary of State for Health since 2012; MP for South West Surrey since 2005 (endorsed George Osborne)
 * Nicky Morgan, Secretary of State for Education since 2014; MP for Loughborough since 2010 (endorsed Boris Johnson, then Michael Gove)

Declined
The following individuals were the focus of media speculation as being possible leadership candidates, but ruled out a bid or did not stand by the requisite time:
 * Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee since 2010; MP for Altrincham and Knutsford since 2015
 * Robert Buckland, Solicitor General for England and Wales since 2014; MP for Swindon South since 2010
 * George Freeman, Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Life Sciences since 2014; MP for Mid Norfolk since 2010 (endorsed George Osborne)
 * Chris Grayling, Leader of the House of Commons since 2015; MP for Epsom and Ewell since 2001 (endorsed George Osborne)
 * Justine Greening, Secretary of State for International Development since 2012; MP for Putney and Wimbledon since 2005
 * Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills; MP for Bromsgrove (endorsed Rory Stewart, then George Osborne)
 * Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London; MP for Uxbridge and Northolt since 2015 (endorsed Steve Baker)
 * Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for the Armed Forces since 2015; MP for Portsmouth North since 2010 (endorsed Rory Stewart - campaign chair)
 * David Morris, MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale since 2015 (endorsed Rory Stewart, then George Osborne)
 * Jesse Norman, Chairman of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee since 2015; MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire since 2010 (endorsed Boris Johnson, then George Osborne)
 * Priti Patel, Minister of State for Employment since 2015; MP for Witham and Maldon (endorsed Boris Johnson, then Steve Baker)
 * Owen Paterson, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2012–2014; Secretary of State for Northern Ireland 2010–2012; MP for North Shropshire since 1997 (endorsed Michael Gove)
 * Dominic Raab, Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Justice since 2015; MP for Esher and Walton (endorsed Boris Johnson, then Michael Gove)
 * Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change since 2015; MP for Hastings and Rye since 2010 (endorsed Boris Johnson, then George Osborne)
 * Anna Soubry, Minister of State for Small Business since 2015; MP for Broxtowe (endorsed George Osborne)
 * Elizabeth Truss, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2014; MP for South Norfolk since 2015 (endorsed Boris Johnson, then Steve Baker)
 * Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland since 2012; Minister of State for Transport 2010–2012; MP for Chipping Barnet since 2005 (endorsed George Osborne)

Economy
Osborne promised to abolish the highest rate of income tax, in line with an announcement he made as Chancellor in the 2018 budget. In order to reduce the deficit, Osborne said he would raise rates of indirect taxation, which would, in his view, "be fiscally responsible" whilst "maintaining one of the most competitive tax systems in the developed world". He also said that he would keep a "tight lid on spending, as [he had] done as Chancellor".

Gove pledged not to raise taxes, and said he would maintain spending cuts made since 2010. He promised to "cut red tape" for businesses, and opposed the HS2 rail project.

Stewart said that he would cancel the planned abolition of the highest rate of income tax, saying it would "force further cuts to already pressured public services and welfare programs". He said he would consider raising National Insurance to pay for further funding towards the NHS and education.

Baker promised to privatise Network Rail, Channel 4, and a number of quangos as a way to raise money for the government. This money would then be used to fund the abolition of diverted profits tax and the so-called "green levy", as well as a reduction in the higher rate of income tax to 30%. He expressed scepticism towards environmental regulation, and said that he would "review" the government's goal for 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.

Immigration
Baker, the most right-wing of the four candidates, promised to reduce net migration into the tens of thousands. Gove supported the introduction of an "Australian-style" points-based immigration system, as soon as EU obligations allowed. Osborne did not frequently mention his stance on immigration, but said that he would make sure immigration "remains at sustainable levels". Stewart said that the government should balance "the utmost compassion and openness to immigrants" with "what is sustainable", but declined to elaborate.

Europe
Osborne promised to hold a simple in-out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU before the end of 2020, although he said he would campaign for the Remain side in the event. Gove and Baker also committed to this, although they said that they would campaign to leave. Stewart said that he did not consider a referendum on Europe a "top priority", but that he would be "open" to holding one if further powers were transferred to the European Union.

Osborne said that, prior to the referendum, he would try to renegotiate the terms of Britain's membership, so as to give the UK more legislative and regulatory control, and then have the referendum between remaining in the EU on renegotiated terms or leaving. In response, Baker suggested that any terms the EU might accept would be "half-baked, unsatisfactory and costly", and said that they would "do little to obstruct the [European] Commission's goals for ultimate integration". The New Statesman called Baker's remarks "dangerous...borderline conspiratorial".

Other issues
Stewart promised to hold a free vote on repealing the ban on fox hunting, as did Baker.

Osborne, Gove and Baker all promised to end the ban on new grammar schools.

Osborne and Gove suggested that they would recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, after such an action was taken by US President Hillary Clinton the previous year.

Candidates' use of drugs
On 9 June, Gove admitted to taking cocaine 20 years prior, after allegations of his use of the drug were published by Owen Bennett in a biography titled Michael Gove: A Man in A Hurry. Gove apologised, but stated that he did not believe it "disqualified" him from the contest, and said that people should "move on". Immediately following the allegations, on 10 June, an Opinium poll suggested that Gove's support amongst Tory members had fallen from 23% to 16%, and there were rumours he was preparing to withdraw from the race. Stewart also admitted to taking illegal drugs whilst abroad on 12 June, but did not specify which drugs.

"Vote-switching"
Prior to the second ballot of MPs, Baker suggested that some of Osborne's supporters were planning to vote for Gove as a way to prevent Baker from reaching the final round, as they believed he would be harder to beat in the final members' ballot. One Baker supporter, Nadine Dorries accused the Osborne campaign of using "dark arts and dirty tricks" in order to win. Osborne responded by calling such claims "absurd" and said that "none of [his] supporters were in any way planning to manipulate the result of who enters the final round". On 12 June, Baker accused the Gove and Osborne campaigns of working together to prevent his election. James Forsyth of The Spectator said that Baker's attacks were "damaging the unity of the Conservatives" and were "completely unfounded and unhelpful". In any case, Baker's failed to make it into the top two in the second round, with his number of MP backers falling from 64 to 58, whilst Gove's increased from 61 to 80. Katy Balls, writing in The Telegraph said that it was "highly unlikely that so-called vote-switching played any role in Baker's failure to reach the final round", and that rather "his momentum, though impressive in the first round, stalled, in part no doubt due to absurd attacks like the vote-switching allegations levied against Gove and Osborne".

Osborne's association with BlackRock
On 9 June, it was revealed that in February 2017, Osborne started a new role as a part-time adviser to BlackRock, the world's largest fund manager, for a salary of £650,000 for one day a week. Although the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments did approve the job, Osborne's taking of the job was nonetheless controversial, and provoked concerns about potential lobbying. Osborne said that he had made "no specific policy decisions" relating to BlackRock, and reiterated the fact that it was permitted by ACOBA, although Baker said that "any Chancellor being so closely associated" with a fund manager "should be concerning". Gove said that "the Advisory Committee [on Business Appointments] approved the job" and that "whether or not there is something to be concerned about here is not for me to comment on".

Results
The first ballot of MPs was held on 18 June. The results were announced at 18:30 by 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady. Osborne placed first, far ahead of his closest rival Baker. Fourth-placed candidate Stewart was knocked out of the race. Gove, Baker and Osborne went through to the second ballot held on 23 June. Osborne again was the clear winner, with Gove beating Baker, which meant that Osborne and Gove went through to the members' ballot, the result of which was due to be announced on 23 July.

However, on 11 July, Gove withdrew from the race, saying it is in the "best interests of the country", leaving Osborne as the only candidate. It was reported in The Spectator that Osborne's campaign, upon taking an opinion poll which showed Gove with a slight lead, offered Gove the office of First Secretary of State in exchange for the latter's withdrawal. Osborne did not comment. Conservative MP and Chairman of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, announced that Osborne would be confirmed as Conservative Party leader as soon as the party's board had been consulted. He was confirmed as leader; David Cameron tendered his resignation as Prime Minister on 13 July, with Osborne accepting the Queen's invitation to succeed him shortly afterwards. Having been appointed Prime Minister, he entered 10 Downing Street with a speech emphasising the term Unionist in the name of the party, reminding all of "the precious, precious bond between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland."