2025 Erbilstan Parliamentary Election

The 2025 Erbilstan Parliamentary Election was held on 2 October 2025 to elect 89 members to the Erbilian Parliament. The election saw both the major parties lose seats. The Royal Conservative Party, the ruling Social Labor Party, and the main opposition, Iraq Unionist Party all lose 11 seats with the latter losing as much as 13% of the votes. Prior to the election, the ruling Social Labor Party formed a minority government with confidence and supply from its long rival, the Royal Conservative Party. Splinter parties from both the SLP and RCP were created including Centrist Alliance (a new liberal party), Erbilian People's Party (a new leftist party), and New Right (a new conservative party). Therefore, weakening the ruling SLP by making it more reliant on votes of the Royal Conservatives which led to the removal of Ibrahim Mahmed as its leader. The ruling party elected Mustafa Maloki as its new leader. Mahmed vowed that he will continue to serve as Prime Minister until a new election has called. Iraq Unionists failed to capitalize on the failures of the governing parties. New Islamic Guard party gain 11 seats - the most in this election while other new parties made moderate gains as well.

The election ended up in a hung parliament where any blocs are short of majority. Mustafa Maloki of the SLP refused to hold another government with support from the Royal Conservatives and the liberal Centrist Alliance. Mohammad Ila of Erbil Nationalist Paty is reluctant to hold another coalition government with SLP however his party is willing to support the ruling party should it revive the "Republican Bill". Kareem Al-Din, leader of the Islamic Guard was currently mum on who to support however he also supports a transition of Erbilstan into an Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, Erbilian People's Party leader Sarah Ali is "ready to work" with any left-wing and like-minded parties. Mustafa Maloki of the Social Labor Party formed a minority coalition government with Erbilian People's Party with support from Erbil Nationalist Paty and Islamic Guard.

Background
In 2022, the Social Labor Party won plurality of votes receiving 37.4% of the vote and 33 seats - well short of a majority. The Royal Conservative Party received 29% of the vote winning 26 seats. Erbil Nationalist Party gained 7 seats and took 9% of the vote while the Iraqi Unionist Party won the largest increase of votes with 24.4% gaining 23 seats.

Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahmed of Social Labor Party formed a minority government with support from its longtime rival, Royal Conservative Party. According to Ahmed Khoury, leader of the Royal Conservatives, the agreement was "flexible" for the Royal Conservative Party as it will vote to budgets that are "pro-small business" and "pro-entrepreneur" while "maintaining independence" on other policies set by the Social Labor Party. Both parties have enacted centrist policies during the first year of the term.

However, in February 2023, rifts within the ruling Social Labor Party exposed divisions between the radical wings and the moderate wings of the party. Sarah Ali and two other MPs left the SLP and formed a new leftists party called Erbilian People's Party that aims to promote a "true progressive alternative" to the people of Erbilstan. The move of Ali further weakened the ruling party as it will no longer have a relative majority should the Royal Conservatives abstained in the vote. Therefore, the SLP is forced to rely on the Conservatives on every vote on its policies. So is the Royal Conservative Party where Salman Anwar (and two other MPs) left the party in September 2023 where he accused Khoury of "selling the soul of conservatism to the Socialists in exchange of power". Anwar created a new "conservative and monarchist" party called New Right.

In February 2024, Haffez Al-Salihi from the RCP and two MPs from the SLP left their respective parties. Al-Salihi noted that the "time is ripe to end bloc politics once and for all". He formed the new Centrist Alliance party - the only liberal party in the history of Erbilstan. In September 2024, Mustafa Maloki challenged Ibrahim Mahmed as leader of the Social Labor Party. The formal Extraordinary Congress of the Social Labor Party took place on October 2024 where party members will vote for their new leader. Maloki defeated Mahmed with 53% of the party vote. The same party congress also decided Mahmed's request to continue as Prime Minister until a new government sworn in.

The opinion polls has predicted that the Social Labor Party will be the largest party but will suffer big loses. So are the Royal Conservative Party and the Iraq Unionist Party. At election night, the ruling party took 22 seats, down 11 from their 2022 result. The Royal Conservative Party, led by Ahmed Khoury, took 15 seats, a decrease of 11 seats from their previous result. Erbil Nationalist Party made moderate gains of 7 seats becoming the third largest party once again. New Right made moderate gains as well as the liberal Centrist Alliance. Meanwhile, the leftist Erbilian People's Party led by Sarah Ali, the first woman to lead a political party in the history of Erbilstan, made small gain of 3 seats. The biggest winner of the election is the Islamic Guard party, led by Kareem Al-Din, managed to do unexpectedly well winning 11 seats. The biggest loser of the election is the Iraq Unionist Party taking 12 seats, losing 13.9% of the vote.

The Mustafa Maloki claimed victory in the election as his party retained its status as the largest party to form a government. Mohammad Ila refused to make any comments on the possible agreements with the SLP. IUP leader Rashed Sanook resigned after a lackluster campaign. Most notable that the Royal Conservative Party leader Ahmed Khoury refused to work with Maloki and called the Social Labor Party to elect a "sensible leader". Meanwhile, Haffez Al-Salihi called on both SLP and RCP to end petty politics and create a new coalition government in the center. However his proposal was not considered as his preferred coalition government is still short of a majority even if his party is included in such coalition.

On 15 October 2025, Mustafa Maloki started talks with Sarah Ali. The negotiations went well according to media reports and sources close to the two parties. On 22 October 2022, Maloki held talks with Kareem Al-Din and Mohammad Ila of the Islamic Guard and Erbil Nationalist Party respectively. A week later, Mustafa Maloki, Sarah Ali, Kareem Al-Din and Mohammad Ila announced in a joint statement that the Social Labor Party and Erbilian People's Party will lead a minority coalition government with support from the Islamic Guard and Erbil Nationalist Party. According to Maloki, such agreement was based on the "pulse of the people" voted for a "progressive bloc". Ali was "elated" that she will work hand in hand with "progressive and like-minded parties". According to Al-Din, the agreement was closer to their main goal of "bringing Erbilstan into an Islamic Republic through small steps". To Ila, he noted that the Social Labor Party he worked with years ago "is back" and ready to commit to a more "modern take" on the future of Erbilstan. The 20th Parliament was opened by Governor General Philip Wittelsbach on 14 November 2025.

Parties
Following the agreement for an election to be held in 2025, each party nominated a list of candidates and also selected a party leader to stand for Prime Minister.

Social Labor Party
The center-left political party whose programs are free education, subsidized healthcare and giving people enough welfare for them to support their needs. Neutral on the issue of monarchy and the Commonwealth.

Royal Conservative Party
The center-right political party whose programs are staying Erbilstan as a Commonwealth realm, opening the country to foreign investments and supporting small and medium enterprises in the country.

Iraq Unionist Party
A big-tent nationwide unionist party founded on 2013 based in Nineveh, initially proposed to unite Nineveh and Kirkuk under Iraq. Now, they advocate for the return of all Erbilstan's governorates to the Republic of Iraq.

Erbil Nationalist Party
A nationalist party founded on 2008 to make Erbilstan a republic country. Initially supported turning the country into a federal one.

Islamic Guard
A new religious party founded on 2024 by Kareem Al-Din in Nineveh governorate that caters to the interests of the Muslim population of Erbilstan. Supports the transision of Erbilstan into an Islamic Republic.

New Right
A new conservative and monarchist group founded on 2024 by Salman Anwar in Dohuk. A splinter group from the RCP, it hopes to become the premier party of conservatism in Erbilstan

Erbilian People's Party
A new leftist progressive party founded by Sarah Ali in 2023. A splinter group from the SLP, it prouds itself as a progressive alternative to the people of Erbilstan.

Centrist Alliance
A new liberal party founded by Haffez Al-Salihi in 2024. It aims to end bloc politics and focuses on the people's welfare.

Campaign
The campaign was dominated by the de-facto grand coalition between the longtime rivals: Social Labor and the Royal Conservative. SLP leader Mustafa Maloki defended his government's policies but blamed Ahmed Khoury and the Royal Conservative Party for refusing to compromise on some issues. Royal Conservative Party leader Ahmed Khoury attacked the ruling party for their failure to compromise in the interests of entrepreneurs and investors in Erbilstan.

Meanwhile, Iraq Unionist Party leader Rashed Sanook was criticized due to his party's failure to keep their 2022 manifesto on delivering a referendum on the status of Erbilstan in the Republic of Iraq. Kareem Al-Din heavily campaigned in Nineveh where the most number of seats in Erbilstan is located. He promised that he will work with any government that includes their goal of a referendum on the future of Erbilstan as an Islamic republican country.

New Right, Erbilian People's Party, and Centrist Alliance attacked the SLP and RCP and campaigned on their respective strongholds.

Results
The exit poll at 10PM predicted the Social Labor Party at 25 seats and the Royal Conservatives at 22. This exit poll overestimated the two largest parties and underestimated the big victory of new parties and the Iraq Unionists' serious defeat. The preliminary result was praised by the Social Labor Party as they will retain the right to form a government as the largest party. The Social Labor Party came first in Erbil governorate with 37% and a much better result in Dohuk taking 40% of the vote. The Royal Conservatives came first in Sulaymaniyah and Kirkuk governorates with 24% and 40%, respectively. Mohammad Ila's campaign went well as his Erbil Nationalist Party came second in Nineveh and Erbil governorates with 21% and 20% of the vote, respectively.