2012 United States Presidential Election (America 2)

The 2012 United States Presidential Election was the 57th quadrennial United States presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Republican ticket of businessman and former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida defeated Incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Joe Biden, who ran for a second term.

The Republicans experienced a competitive primary. Romney was consistently competitive in the polls and won the support of many party leaders, but he faced challenges from a number of more conservative contenders. Romney secured his party's nomination in May, defeating former Senator Rick Santorum, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Texas congressman Ron Paul, Indiana Representative Mike Pence, and businessman Donald Trump among other candidates. As the incumbent president, Obama secured the Democratic nomination without serious opposition.

The campaigns focused heavily on domestic issues, and debate centered largely around sound responses to the Great Recession. Other issues included long-term federal budget issues, the future of social insurance programs, and the Affordable Care Act, Obama's marquee legislative program. Foreign policy was also discussed, including the end of the Iraq War in 2011, military spending, the Iranian nuclear program, and appropriate counteractions to terrorism. The campaign was marked by a sharp rise in fundraising, including from nominally independent Super PACs.

Romney defeated Obama, winning a majority of the Electoral College, while losing in the popular vote. Romney won 276 electoral votes and 49.0% of the popular vote compared to Obama's 262 electoral votes and 51.0%. This was also the first presidential election since 1944 in which neither the Republican nor the Democratic nominee had military experience.

Romney flipped Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, breaking the blue wall and defeating Obama in many swing states. Ultimately, of the nine swing states identified by The Washington Post in the 2012 election, Romney won five, winning in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin. This was the first election in which a major party nominee lost his home state since Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000, as Romney lost his home state of Massachusetts.

All four major candidates for president and vice president went on to hold significant public office after this election. Romney served for two terms as president and was succeeded by Marco Rubio in 2017. Rubio also served two terms as vice president, and was elected president by defeating Joe Biden eight years later in 2020. Obama moved back to his home state of Illinois in 2014 and was later elected to the Senate there in 2016, succeeding Mark Kirk. Biden also moved back to his home state, Delaware, and ran for president in 2016 and 2020, but lost to Romney and Rubio in each election.

Fall Campaign
Despite the fatal three-way split in the Democratic Party, MacArthur's political inexperience was seen as a sign of definite failure by Democratic leaders. Most also believed that the Dixiecrats and Progressives wouldn't garner enough votes to harm Truman's chances. However, Truman's popularity continued to sink, and voters seemed increasingly inclined to elect a military man in a time of chaos such as the post-WWII era.

Truman himself campaigned extensively using partisan attacks on MacArthur and the Republican-controlled 80th Congress. On October 5, 1948, In a show of extensive petty partisan politics, Truman fired MacArthur from his position as General of the Army. This move caused extensive uproar from the people, with multiple newspapers attacking Truman, and one popular political cartoon depicted Truman as an infant in a diaper pointing at MacArthur and wailing "You are fired because of your candidacy!" This cartoon became one of the most well-known cartoons in America, and was even turned into a short animated film after the election.

MacArthur, meanwhile, returned these attacks in a vicious manner, but was sure to keep himself above stooping to certain lows. MacArthur frequently pointed out the high taxes and soaring inflation over the last few years. Truman also attempted to stoke fears of a second Great Depression under a Republican administration, even going so far as to say that communists wanted a Republican president so a second Great Depression would happen, and thus they could push their views. MacArthur returned these attacks in his own way, and Taft referred to Truman as a "partisan hack who'd sooner weaken America's world standing than see a Republican be a top general." In reference to Truman's firing of MacArthur.

Truman nicknamed the Republican-controlled 80th Congress the "worst" and "do-nothing" Congress, remarks which angered Republican congressional leaders, and even angered some Democratic leaders, who did not want their party seen as that of petty partisans. MacArthur, while not a Congressman, responded to these attacks by saying: "Our chief executive would sooner shout insults at Congress then actually work to better the nation. President Truman is a man who cares little for the affairs of actually running a nation, instead he prefers to engage in partisan debates, which only seek to divide our nation and bog down Congress."

In the final weeks of the campaign, American movie theaters agreed to play two short newsreel-like campaign films in support of the two major candidates. The MacArthur film, shot professionally on a high budget, wowed audiences, while the Truman film was hastily assembled by a campaign perpetually strapped for cash, and relied heavily on public domain and newsreel footage of the President. In the end, the MacArthur film greatly boosted MacArthur's popularity, with the Truman film being the final nail in the coffin for a dying campaign.

Despite the film's failure, Truman and his subordinates continued to hold onto the belief that they could win, despite polls showing MacArthur gaining and gaining on Truman, however, Truman seemed deaf to this, even as his advisors pointed out the massive success of the Dixiecrats in the South, which would deprive the Democrats of important southern states.

Also deaf to these developments was the newsmedia. The media still predicted a Truman win, despite eventually having to add Dixiecrats to their predictions. Many newspapers began writing articles to be printed the morning after the election speculating about the future of Truman's presidency. For its television coverage, NBC News had constructed a large cardboard model of the White House containing two red donkeys that would pop out when NBC announced Truman's victory, since MacArthur's defeat was considered certain by the media, it contained no blue elephants.

Results
On Election Night, MacArthur, his family, and campaign staff gathered at the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City to await the returns. Truman, aided by the Secret Service, snuck away from reporters covering him in Kansas City and rode to nearby Excelsior Springs, Missouri. There, he took a room at the Elm Hotel, had dinner and went to sleep. As the votes came in, Truman initially had a lead, however, as the night went on, MacArthur began to gain a large lead, especially in the western states.

MacArthur went to sleep after hearing on the radio that Truman had a lead, he told his wife "This may all be for naught." However, MacArthur then awoke at midnight and turned on the radio. He heard that he had gained a lead over Truman, and that Thurmond had gained a large amount of votes in the South. He went to sleep again, then woke up at 4am to hear that he was well ahead in the electoral vote and popular vote. He told his wife "It seems like we may be moving soon." Truman, meanwhile, woke up at around 4am and realized he was losing significantly. He stayed up the rest of the night analyzing the votes as they came in, and by 10:30am, was convinced he had lost, at 11:14am, he sent a gracious concession telegram to MacArthur.

The Chicago Daily Tribune, so sure of Truman's victory, that on Tuesday afternoon, before any polls closed, it printed "TRUMAN DEFEATS MACARTHUR" as its headline for the following day. Following this, MacArthur was photographed grinning with a cigar in his mouth, holding up a copy of the paper.

The election followed a similar pattern to many elections across the world, as Truman, a war leader, had been voted out, similar to Winston Churchill and Charles De Gualle.

Truman's loss, having been studied for decades, was mostly likely caused by a number of factors. For one, Truman's popularity was sinking, and he had little to campaign upon besides "I won the war.", and his inability to truly speak out on issues at the time besides civil rights greatly harmed his chances. He also wasn't an elected President, having only become President after the death of Franklin Roosevelt. Truman also had little experience on the world stage, and Roosevelt's stance towards the Soviets had effectively let them take Eastern Europe, with Truman doing little to try to reverse this after he became President. MacArthur, meanwhile, had won the entire Pacific Front himself, and had already begun the process of rebuilding Japan into a democracy. He also harbored a burning passionate hatred for communism, and gave fiery speeches against it.

After nearly twenty years of Democratic rule, citizens were becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the party, including one anonymous New York resident who asked Truman during a campaign rally in New York City "After all these years, where is the utopia we were promised?" MacArthur campaigned heavily off the soaring inflation in recent years, and the insanely high taxes at the time.

Close states
Margin of victory less than 1% (138 electoral votes):
 * 1) Ohio, 0.24% (7,107 votes)
 * 2) California, 0.44% (17,865 votes)
 * 3) Indiana, 0.80% (13,246 votes)
 * 4) Illinois, 0.84% (33,612 votes)
 * 5) New York, 0.98% (60,959 votes)

Margin of victory less than 5% (131 electoral votes):
 * 1) Delaware, 1.28% (1,775 votes)
 * 2) Maryland, 1.39% (8,293 votes)
 * 3) Connecticut, 1.64% (14,457 votes)
 * 4) Michigan, 1.67% (35,147 votes)
 * 5) Iowa, 2.73% (28,362 votes)
 * 6) Idaho, 2.73% (5,856 votes)
 * 7) Nevada, 3.11% (1,934 votes)
 * 8) Oregon, 3.39% (17,757 votes)
 * 9) Pennsylvania, 4.01% (149,771 votes)
 * 10) Wyoming, 4.35% (4,407 votes)
 * 11) New Jersey, 4.39% (85,669 votes)
 * 12) Wisconsin, 4.41% (56,351 votes)
 * 13) South Dakota, 4.80% (11,998 votes)

Margin of victory between 5% and 10% (59 electoral votes):
 * 1) Colorado, 5.35% (27,574 votes)
 * 2) New Hampshire, 5.75% (13,304 votes)
 * 3) Virginia, 6.85% (28,716 votes)
 * 4) Nebraska, 8.31% (40,609 votes)
 * 5) North Dakota, 8.76% (19,327 votes)
 * 6) Utah, 8.96% (24,749 votes)
 * 7) Kansas, 9.02% (71,137 votes)
 * 8) Washington, 9.93% (89,850 votes)
 * 9) Montana, 9.94% (22,301 votes)
 * 10) Arizona, 9.97% (17,654 votes)