2028 United States Presidential Election (Pear's Future III)

The 2028 United States Presidential Election was the 61th quadrennial Presidential Election in November of 2028. The Republican ticket of former Florida Governor Ron Desantis and the senior U.S. Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott defeated the Democratic ticket of incumbent President Kamala Harris of California and Treasury Secretary Pete Buttigieg. The election saw the first time a Democratic President lost re-election since 1976, with Harris, who had entered the office of President following the resignation of Joe Biden due to health concerns.

Despite being the incumbent, Harris faced several well known challengers for the Democratic nomination, even losing early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. However, she was able to gain momentum and defeat her closest challenger of former Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear easily. She selected Treasury Secretary Pete Buttigieg as her running mate over incumbent Vice President Cory Booker, whom Harris selected to fill out the rest of her term as Vice President and was approved by congress. Buttigeg became the first openly gay Vice Presidential Nominee on a major party ticket, as well as Kamala Harris becoming the first woman of color on a major party presidential ticket. Desantis, the consistent frontrunner for the Republican nomination, beat his closest challenger Tim Scott in the primary handily, before selecting Scott as his running mate. Scott became the first African American Vice Presidential nominee on a Republican ticket.

Desantis ultimately won a majority of the electoral college, flipping the states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, receiving 316 electoral votes, with Harris achieving 222. Desantis became the first Republican to carry the state of Nevada in a Presidential Election since George W. Bush in 2004, and the first Republican to carry New Hampshire since Bush won it in 2000. Desantis also pulled off a narrow victory in the popular vote, receiving just under 50% whilst Harris received a tiny bit over 49%. With a margin of just 0.48%, this was the closest race in the popular vote since 1960. However, Desantis became the first non-incumbent Republican to carry the popular vote since George H.W. Bush in 1988 and the first Republican to do so since George W. Bush in 2004. Desantis' strength in the popular vote was due to his ability to significantly increase turnout and Republican strength in urban cities, as Desantis was able to increase Republican turnout in highly populated states like California, Texas, New York and Illinois.

The two candidates ran very different campaigns; Desantis ran on the poor state of the economy, increasing crime and decreasing gas prices, a campaign messaging similar to the one Lee Zeldin used to win the New York Gubernatorial Election in 2026. His campaign was able to resonate with a lot of both rural and urban voters, while Harris' campaign focused largely on Desantis' opposition to wokeness and radicalism as Governor of Florida. This was able to strengthen turnout for Democrats, however, she failed to properly address the economic downturn under her administration, which was seen as a large factor for her defat. She had also upset a lot of African American voters when she removed Cory Booker from her ticket as Vice President, despite originally promising Booker the role.

Democratic Nomination
See more: 2028 Democratic Party Presidential Primaries (Pear's Future III)

Republican Nomination
See more: 2028 Republican Party Presidential Primaries (Pear's Future III)

Harris' scandals
Throughout the campaign, Harris was seen contradicting herself and having little knowledge about certain subjects. She incorrectly stated the number of nuclear weapons the United States has, and was seen providing false statements about economics. Her campaign was also accused of fraud, leading to her poll numbers dropping significantly. In one rally in Atlanta, Harris called Tim Scott an "uncle tom", a statement that was even dispelled as rude by some Democrats. Republicans heavily criticized her for her scandals, painting her as immature and unknowledgeable.

The Zeldin Machine
Governor Lee Zeldin of New York, who had been highly considered as Desantis' running mate, played a pivotal role in his parties' campaign. Zeldin helped set up a campaign strategy that was able to significantly increase turnout in urban America by campaign on "kitchen table issues" such as crime, poverty and inflation. This strategy was shown to be effective, as many urban areas saw high Republican turnout. The Harris campaign was seen as not able to properly address these issues, instead often dismissing them. Republicans also took advantage of this by framing the Democrats as "unable to address the issues that Americans, urban, suburban or rural, truly care about".

First Presidential Debate
The first Presidential Debate was held in Pittsburgh, in which both Desantis and Harris attended. The debate largely focused around education, in which Desantis talked about the "wokeness being taught in schools" and promising to ban critical race theory, while Harris criticized DeSantis for "micro-managing the education system". Although Republican attack on critical race theory previously proved effective in election such as the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election, many watchers of the debate called it "repetitive", leading to the Debate seen as slightly favoring Harris, with 47% believing she had won to Desantis' 39%.

Second Presidential Debate
The Second Presidential Debate was held in Atlanta, this time largely focusing on government spending. DeSantis criticized Harris for "reckless spending" and promised to decrease income taxes as President, while Harris attacked Desantis for being to close with the rich corporations and "not giving a damn about hard working Americans". The Debate was seen as a deadlocked tie, as many viewers did not like some of Desantis' policies while many did not believe Harris' solutions were feasible.

Vice Presidential Debate
The Vice Presidential Debate between Buttigieg and Scott happened in Virginia Beach. The debate largely focused social justice, with Scott focusing on the American Dream and traditionally moderate social views. The debate had high ratings and was generally seen as a tie until in Buttigieg's closing statements when he claimed that Scott was "using identity politics to obstruct those of his own race", a statement that backfired and was significantly criticized by the African American community.

Third Presidential Debate
The third and final Presidential Debate happened in Miami, this time Desantis focused more on social justice and government spending. Harris made some very untrue claims that were called out by the moderates, as well as being criticized for her cocky and narcissistic attitude throughout the debate. According to polls, 58% of Americans believed Desantis had won the debate compared to Harris' 27%. The Debate was seen as the "final blow" to Harris' campaign, as her poll numbers had been steadily decreasing and dropped significantly because of the debate.