2024 Senate Elections (Pear's Future Elections)

The 2024 United States Senate election occurred with the re-election of President Joe Biden. Despite Biden's re-election, Republicans were able to gain 4 seats in the Senate, expanding their majority. This was largely due to the senate map being favorable for Republicans Republicans defeated incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Joe Manchin in West Virginia. while being able to hold onto all of their seats. Republicans also won an open seat in Arizona, where incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema lost the Democratic primary.

Arizona
Incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema ran for re-election to a second term. Sinema was challenged in the Democratic primary by US Representative Reuben Gallego, a progressive who criticized Sinema for her moderate views. In April, Gallego narrowly defeated Sinema in the democratic primary. Republican State Treasurer Kimberly Yee won the Republican primary, and defeated Gallego in the general election

Democratic Primary
Candidates Campaign The Campaign between Gallego and Sinema was incredibly competitive. Although early polls showed Gallego leading the incumbent, the primary season saw polls swing from Sinema to Gallego and back. The final results, on election day was too close to call, with Gallego leading Sinema by less than 0.1%. Following a recount, Gallego was declared the winner.
 * Kyrsten Sinema, Incumbent US Senator since 2019
 * Reuben Gallego, US Representative from Arizona's 3rd Congressional District

Republican Primary
Candidates
 * Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer
 * Blake Masters, Businessman and Nominee for the Senate in 2022
 * Keli Ward, Chair of the Arizona Republican Party and candidate for Senate in 2016 and 2018

California
Incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein decided to retire. In the Non-Partisan primary, US Representative Ro Khanna and Social Media influencer Kevin Paffrath advanced to the general election. In the general election, Khanna narrowly defeated Paffrath by a narrow margin, despite having more endorsements and fundraising money than Paffrath. Paffrath's strength was attributed to winning most of the Republican vote, as well winning the support of many moderates.

Non Partisan Primary
Advanced to General Election Eliminated in Primary Results
 * Ro Khanna, United States Representative from California's 17th Congressional District (Democratic)
 * Kevin Paffrath, Social Media influencer and candidate for governor in the 2021 Recall election (Democratic)
 * Katie Porter, United State Representative from California's 47th Congressional District (Democratic)
 * Kevin Deleon, former Los Angeles city Councilman, former State Senate pro tempore, candidate for Governor in 2018 (Democratic)
 * Barack Obama Mendela, attorney (Republican)

Florida
Incumbent Senator Rick Scott ran for re-election to a second term in office. Scott faced Democratic Stephanie Murphy, a former Democratic Representative. Polls were tight, with most pundits considering the election a 'tossup'. On election day, Scott narrowly won, defeating Murphy by a third of a percentage point.

Republican Primary
Candidate
 * Rick Scott, incumbent Senator since 2019

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrew Results
 * Stephanie Murphy, former United States Representative from Florida's 7th Congressional District
 * Ken Russel, former Miami City Commissioner and candidate for the US Senate and for FL-27 in 2022
 * Brian Rush, former Minority Whip of the Florida house of Representatives and candidate for Senate in 2022
 * Val Demmings, former United States Representative from Florida's 10th Congressional district and nominee for the Senate in 2022
 * Charlie Christ, former United States Representative from Florida's 13th Congressional district, former Republican Governor of Florida, and nominee for Governor in 2014 and 2022

Michigan
Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow won re-election to a fifth term in office. Stabenow defeated Republican John Gibbs, outperforming President Joe Biden, who only won narrowly won in the state.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrawn
 * John Gibbs, former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development for Community Planning and Development and nominee for United States representative in Michigan's 3rd congressional district in 2022
 * Perry Johnson, businessman and candidate for Governor in 2022
 * Tom Beck, small business owner
 * Mary Lillywhite, St. Joseph county Sherrif
 * Peter Meijer, former United States Representative from Michigan's 3rd congressional district (Ran for MI-3)
 * Stephen Crowder, Conservative commentator

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Debbie Stabenow, incumbent Senator since 2001
 * Jeff Lee, surgeon
 * Bob Marnon, businessman

Montana
Incumbent Senator Jon Tester ran for re-election to a fourth term, but narrowly lost to Matt Rosendale in a rematch of the 2018 Senate Election. Tester's defeat was an upset, as he was ahead of most polls. However, it is likely that popular governor Greg Gianforte sparked voter enthusiasm for Rosendale, helping him win.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary Withdrawn
 * Matt Rosendale, United States Representative from Montana's 2nd Congressional District, formerly the At-Large District and nominee for the Senate in 2018
 * Greg Moore, attorney
 * Ryan Zinke, United States Representative from Montana's 1st Congressional District and former United States Secretary of the Interior (ran for re-election)
 * Corey Stapleton, former Secretary of State of Montana, candidate for governor in 2020 (ran for MT-2)

Democratic Primary
Candidate
 * Jon Tester, incumbent Senator since 2007