CONTINGENCY 2024 United States Presidential Election

The 2024 United States Presidential Election was the 60th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The Republican ticket of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Missouri Senator Josh Hawley defeated incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris; and American Patriotic candidates Former President Donald Trump and Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. The Election took place amid increasing polarization, the War in Ukraine, and the Inflation Crisis. It was the second election in a row where an incumbent failed to win a second term and the first election to go to the House of Representatives since 1824, 200 years earlier. Turnout in the election declined compared to 2020 but was still fairly high.

While President Biden had no major opposition in the Democratic Primaries the Republican Primaries were extremely competitive. In November 2022 Donald Trump was the first to enter the nomination and maintained high support until he was indicted in March, 2023. Ron DeSantis entered the race in May and maintained a narrow lead over Trump until the convention. On the 4th ballot Ron DeSantis won the Republican Nomination. After the RNC Trump claimed that the nomination was stolen from him and he announced the formation of the American Patriotic Party. The APP easily nominated Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene to their ticket.

The central issues of the election included the War in Ukraine and the fall of Kharkiv City; the future of LGBT Rights; the issue of increasing polarization in Congress and the nation; and the Global Inflation Crisis. Mail-In Ballots were still widely used in this election although the amount of voters at the ballot box increased dramatically compared to 2020. As in 2020 and the 2022 Midterms many more Democrats voted by mail than Republicans. On Election Night many swing states were left uncalled due to the Republican Split and DeSantis' sudden surge in the polls before election day. On November 8th, 2024 the Electoral College was projected to have deadlocked.

Biden ultimately won a plurality in the Electoral College with 237 electoral votes while DeSantis received 227 and Trump received 74. Key to the deadlock was DeSantis' narrow victories in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Trumps' victories in several formerly solid Republican States in the Plains and the Deep South. DeSantis also became the first Republican to win a presidential election in Nevada since 2004. Trump also performed the best in the electoral college for a third-party candidate since George Wallace in 1968 and had the best performance in the popular vote for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.

After election day and the subsequent deadlock; all the candidates began preparing for the Contingent Election which would be held on January 6, 2025. Trump continued to claim electoral fraud while Biden and DeSantis continued to attack each other. On January 6, 2025 it was confirmed that no candidate had reached the 270 Votes needed to win the Presidency. The House began voting soon after and the first 2 ballots continued the deadlock. The Senate was able to confirm Josh Hawley to the Vice Presidency that day with the Republicans' new 53 seat majority. However clashes outside the Capitol began between Trump supporters, Biden supporters, and DeSantis supporters. After the riots were suppressed DeSantis and Biden condemned the riots while Trump praised them. On January 7th the deadlock continued and the House decided to adjourn until January 12th. Negotiations during this time were intense and another 16 deadlocked ballots occurred; the 19th ballot was able to narrowly elect DeSantis to the presidency with 26 votes. On January 15th Biden acknowledged his loss and opened up all available resources to DeSantis' team. Trump continued to maintain his allegations of fraud. on January 20th DeSantis and Hawley were inaugurated as President and Vice-President respectively and began their terms with a Republican Senate and a coalition between the Republicans and the APP in the House.