2010 United Kingdom general election

The 2009 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 7 May 2009, with 45,597,461 registered voters entitled to vote to elect members to the House of Commons. The election took place in 650 constituencies across the United Kingdom under the first-past-the-post system.

The election resulted in a large swing to the Conservative Party, the largest seen since 1945, when Labour won a landslide victory against the incumbent Conservative government. The Labour Party lost their 66-seat majority, losing nearly 170 seats, their worst result since 1935. By contrast, the Conservative Party led by David Cameron doubled its seats from 2005, which gave Cameron the largest Conservative majority since 1983. The election would thus mark the end of 12 years of Labour rule under Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown

For the leaders of all three major political parties, this was their first general election contest as party leader. Prime minister Gordon Brown had taken office in June 2007 following the end of Tony Blair's 10-year reign as prime minister and 13 years as leader of the Labour Party, while David Cameron had succeeded Michael Howard in December 2005 and Nick Clegg had succeeded Menzies Campbell (who never contested a general election) in December 2007.

None of the three main party leaders had previously led a general election campaign, a situation which had not occurred since the 1979 election. During the campaign, the three main party leaders engaged in the first televised debates. The Liberal Democrats achieved a breakthrough in opinion polls after the first debate, in which their leader Nick Clegg was widely seen as the strongest performer. Nonetheless, on polling day their share of the vote fell by nearly 4% and they lost nearly a third of their seats, primarily to the Conservatives. As a consequence, Nick Clegg would resign as leader shortly afterwards, and Vince Cable would subsequently become party leader. Brown would also resign after his party's disastrous defeat, resulting in a leadership contest won by Ed Miliband. Cameron would go on to become Prime Minister, the first Conservative to do so since the 1997 general election, in which Conservative Prime Minister John Major was toppled in a landslide defeat.

Background
After the resignation of Tony Blair as leader of the Labour party and Prime Minister, Gordon Brown became Prime Minister, beginning with high approval ratings. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the British economy entered a deep recession, and Brown's approval fell massively. By November 2008, the situation was so dire that a vote of no confidence was held in the government, which failed by a majority of just 12 due to a major rebellion from the left-wing of the Labour party. In the aftermath of the vote, Leader of the Opposition David Cameron called for an early election (due to the previous election being held in 2005, the election did not have to be called until 2010). In addition to this, senior Labour figures[who?] warned that Brown could be challenged for the Labour leadership if he did not resign. With a disastrous by-election defeat in the normally safe seat of Feltham and Heston to the Conservatives, Brown eventually conceded, and on 6 April, went to Buckingham Palace and asked the Queen to dissolve Parliament on 12 April. He later confirmed in a live press conference in Downing Street that the election would be held on 7 May, four years after the previous election on 5 May 2005.

Economy
With the poor financial situation, economic issues dominated the campaign. The Conservatives promised to reduce the deficit through spending cuts, and privatising some government assets, such as Royal Mail and the DVLA, and promised to eliminate the deficit by 2015. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated that the Conservatives' proposal would not be enough to bring the deficit to zero, estimating that additional spending cuts of around £30 bn would be necessary to fulfill said pledge. Labour on the other hand attacked the Conservative propositions as a return to the Thatcherism of the 1980s, and warned that they would lead to mass unemployment and poverty. Brown claimed that the best way to reduce the deficit was through progressive taxes, which was characterised by The Telegraph as an "unabashed pitch to leftist voters".

The Conservatives promised no rises in the rates of income tax, National Insurance, or VAT. Cameron also proposed a cut in the top rate of income tax from 50% to 45%, and a reduction in corporate tax rate to encourage investment, which Brown characterised as a "giveaway" to the wealthy. The Liberal Democrats proposed raising the income tax threshold to £10,000.

Immigration
Cameron promised to abandon the policy of "state multiculturalism" that he asserted defined the Blair and Brown ministries policy to immigration, replacing it with "Muscular liberalism", which aimed to instill British values and ways of life into immigrant communities. In addition, the Conservatives pledged to reduce net migration into the "tens of thousands". The Liberal Democrats advocated for a reduction in illegal immigration, whilst also expanding opportunities for legal immigrants, but did not divulge these proposals in detail. Labour did not mention immigration in their manifesto.

Constitutional issues
The Conservatives pledged to replace the Human Rights Act with a British Bill of Rights that would give the UK more legislative control[potential bias?]. The Conservatives also promised a "Great Repeal Bill" that would abolish many Blair-era criminal justice and security laws, such as ID cards, stop-and-search powers and secret courts, and restrict government usage of biometric and surveillance data. The Liberal Democrats proposed a similar measure, although it was called in their manifesto a "Freedom Bill", and would also enshrine into law the universal right to a jury trial, and the protection of property from disproportionate police action. The Liberal Democrats promised a fixed-term Parliament act that would prevent the calling of early elections and the proroguing of Parliament, barring exceptional circumstances. Both the Liberal Democrats and Labour promised further reform of the House of Lords. Douglas Carswell, Conservative MP for Clacton proposed in 2008 that hereditary peers be restored to the Lords, essentially repealing the House of Lords Act 1999, which Cameron was reported to be "open" to, but the proposition did not make it into the Conservative manifesto.

Other issues
The Liberal Democrats promised the legalisation of gay marriage, as well as the decriminalisation of recreational cannabis use.

David Cameron, leader of the Conservatives, proposed a ban on flying the flag of Al-Qaeda or other Islamist groups in public.

Campaign events
The Conservatives attacked Brown as "more of the same", and ran on the message of change, similar to Barack Obama's campaign for President the previous year. Meanwhile Labour counter-attacked, characterising the Conservative policies as a return to Thatcherism. One particularly notable Labour poster depicted Cameron as Gene Hunt from the TV Series Life on Mars with the caption, "Don't let him take Britain back to the 1980s". The Telegraph characterised this as "backfiring" on Brown, when the Conservatives subsequently adopted an identical image with a positive caption reading "Fire up the Quattro. It's time for change. (Idea kindly donated by the Labour Party)". Regarding the incident, The Spectator said that it "encapsulated the contrast between the Labour and Conservative messaging".



During the campaign, The Sun, having advocated a vote for Labour in the previous three elections, issued a strong endorsement for Cameron and the Conservatives, with the headline "Our Only Hope" and a stylised depiction of Cameron in a similar manner to Barack Obama's "Hope" poster. The article in question told voters that "The Conservatives are the only choice if you want to rescue Britain from disaster". According to an analysis by Lord Ashcroft, The Sun's endorsement was "crucial" for winning over lower middle class and working class voters that had voted for Blair in the last three elections, and may have contributed to Cameron's landslide victory. In addition to The Sun's endorsement, the Conservatives were also backed by The Financial Times, The Daily Telegraph, The Times, The Daily Mail and The Daily Express, whilst Labour was supported only by The Daily Mirror. The Guardian, The Observer and The Independent all endorsed the Liberal Democrats.



Debates
Following a campaign by Sky News and with agreement of the party leaders, it was announced on 21 December 2008 that there would be three leaders' debates, each broadcast on prime time television, and a subsequent announcement in March 2009 that a debate between the financial spokesmen of the three main parties, Alistair Darling, George Osborne and Vince Cable would be held on 29 March.

During the first debate, Nick Clegg was judged as the clear winner, and as a consequence, the Liberal Democrats gained between 3 and 5 points in opinion polling immediately afterwards, a phenomenon dubbed by the media as "Cleggmania". In the second debate, David Cameron was considered to be the winner, with Clegg failing to replicate his strong performance in the first debate, and at the end of the night, the Conservatives had a 13-point lead against Labour. At the third and final debate on 29 April, Cameron was again widely regarded as the party leader who made the best impression to audiences at home, but Clegg was judged to have effectively fended off attacks from both major leaders. In the debate between Osborne, Cable and Darling, Darling attacked the Conservative proposals, claiming they would lead to mass unemployment, similar to the monetarism of the 1980s, whilst Osborne emphasised the importance of reducing the deficit. Osborne was considered the narrow winner.

The SNP insisted that as the leading political party in Scotland in the latest opinion poll, it should be included in any debate broadcast in Scotland. On 22 December 2009, the UKIP leader, Lord Pearson stated that his party should also be included. Following a decision by the BBC Trust not to uphold a complaint from the SNP and Plaid Cymru over their exclusion from the planned BBC debate, the SNP announced on 25 April that they would proceed with legal action over the debate scheduled for 29 April. The party said it was not trying to stop the broadcast but it wanted an SNP politician included for balance. The SNP lost the case, in a judgement delivered on 28 April.

Endorsements
National newspapers in England traditionally endorse political parties before a general election. The following table shows which parties the major papers endorsed.

Opinion polls
Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall UK shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the UK may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Immediately following the previous general election, Labour held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December 2005, the Conservative party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days' detention proposals and the election of David Cameron to the leadership of the Conservative party.

In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. Labour regained the lead in June 2007 following the resignation of Tony Blair and the appointment of Gordon Brown as prime minister. From November 2007, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly after the Financial crisis of 2008, so that by the beginning of 2009, the Conservatives had a lead of up to 20 points on Labour.

After the first televised debate of the party leaders, polling data showed the Lib Dem vote proportion rising dramatically to 25-22%, and in one poll they in fact took the lead from the Conservatives, resulting in substantial media speculation about the possibility of a hung parliament. However, as the so-called "Cleggmania" wore off, and the Liberal Democrat leader struggled to replicate his strong performance in later debates, the Conservatives regained a solid lead over Labour and the Liberal Democrats, causing speculation about a hung parliament to recede into the background.

Exit poll
At 22:00 on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll completed by GfK NOP and Ipsos MORI on behalf of the BBC, Sky and ITV news services was announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country.

The results of the poll initially suggested a parliament with the Conservative Party with a record majority of 152 seats; this was later adjusted to 148. The distribution of seats between the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 394, 190, 39 and 27, respectively, although the seat numbers were later changed to 396, 188, 38 and 28, respectively.

Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats because it was at odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. The actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.

Results
At 9:41 on 7 May, the BBC confirmed a Conservative majority. The result showed an overall swing of 10.8% from Labour to the Conservatives, the largest national swing in a general election since 1945, and the net 199 seat gains made by the Conservatives was their best increase since their landslide victory in 1931, at which time they formed part of the National Government under Ramsay MacDonald. Of the 533 seats contested in England, the Conservatives won 376. The result left the Conservatives with a majority equal to that obtained in the 1983 election, whilst Labour suffered its worst defeat since 1931. The Liberal Democrats had a poor result, largely owing to the strong Conservative performance, losing nearly a third of their seats, mainly to the Tories.

There were 18 seats contested in Northern Ireland. Both Irish nationalist parties, Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), held their seats. The unionist Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) (the latter in an electoral pact with the Conservatives), lost one seat each. This left the nationalist parties unchanged with eight seats, the main unionist parties with eight seats (all DUP), the Alliance with one seat and an independent unionist with one seat. It is the first time since the partition of Ireland that unionist parties failed to secure a majority of Northern Ireland's Westminster seats in a general election, and also the first time Sinn Féin obtained the largest share of the vote in Northern Ireland at a general election.

The Conservative victory was widely credited to the disastrous economic situation caused by the 2008 financial crash, Cameron's personal popularity and charisma, as well as general voter fatigue resulting from 12 years of continuous Labour government. In addition to this, Cameron had moved the party towards the political centre, away from the staunchly right-wing platforms of previous leaders Michael Howard and Iain Duncan Smith. A number of far-right parties had a strong performance in this election, most notably the British National Party under its leader Nick Griffin, which had obtained 3.8% of the vote, its best ever result and the best result for an explicitly far-right party in British history.

Notable results

 * Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families Ed Balls lost his seat in Morley and Outwood by 4,101 votes.
 * Former Home Secretary Charles Clarke lost Norwich South by 310 votes to the Conservatives.
 * Another former Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, lost Redditch on an above average 14.2% swing to the Conservatives. She had held the seat since 1997, and the seat was a key Conservative target.
 * Minister of State for Health Mike O'Brien unexpectedly lost North Warwickshire, a seat he had held for 18 years, by just 503 votes to Conservative challenger Dan Byles.
 * Green Party leader Caroline Lucas won Brighton Pavilion, becoming their first Westminster MP.
 * British National Party leader Nick Griffin lost in Barking to incumbent Labour MP Margaret Hodge by a mere 1,471 votes.
 * In the wake of job losses at the local steel works, Solicitor General Vera Baird lost her seat of Redcar on a swing of 39.8% to Ian Swales of the Liberal Democrats.

Candidate demographics
The election resulted in an increase in the number of MPs from ethnic minorities, including the first black and Asian female Conservative MPs, Helen Grant and Priti Patel, and the first female Muslim MPs, Rushanara Ali, Shabana Mamood and Yasmin Qureshi, all to the Labour benches. This means that 4.2% of MPs were after the 2009 election from an ethnic minority—in the 2001 Census, it was reported that ethnic minorities comprised 7.9% of the population. The number of female MPs rose to 141, an increase from 19.5% to 21.7% of all MPs, and the highest ever total; the number of female Conservative MPs rose from 18 (8.6% of all Conservatives) to 48 (15.7%).

Voter demographics
Post-election polling suggested that many Labour voters, particularly university-educated voters, and of the ABC1 social group, representing the middle-class, had switched to the Conservatives, and to a lesser extent the Liberal Democrats, in the election, causing the Labour Party to lose many of its seats in the South of England and London, where such voters were common. For instance, the Labour party won only one of their 14 seats in the East of England from 2005: Luton North, which was demographically more similar to Labour seats in the North and Scotland.

In many Northern constituencies which were gained by the Conservatives in this election, it was suggested that the far-right British National Party may have attracted Labour voters concerned about immigration, causing the vote to be split and the seat going to the Conservatives.