2026 United States House of Representatives Elections (Pear's Future III)

The 2026 House of Representatives Elections elected occurred in the middle of President Joe Biden's second term. As Biden's approval ratings have dropped, Republicans were expected to do well in the elections. Republicans, under speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, were able to make a net-gain of 16 seats, having 237 seats at the beginning of the next congress. Democrats, under House minority leader Hakeem Jefferies dropped their seat to total to just 198 seats. Court ordered redistricting changed the congressional maps in Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina in this election.

In the 2027 Speaker of the House elections, McCarthy once again had difficulties holding onto his position as Speaker of the House due to retaliation from the House freedom caucus. He was able to receive just 218 votes, the minimum amount to be elected speaker. Most of the other Republicans voted for Pennsylvania congressman and freedom caucus chair Scott Perry. McCarthy pledged to step down as leader in March of 2028, and a special speaker election was held in which Perry was elected speaker.

Oregon's 4th
Incumbent Representative Val Hoyle resigned on February 2nd, 2025, to become the U.S. Ambassador to Germany. Democrat Tina Kotek scheduled an election in May 2025 to replace her. Republican James Shaeffer and Democrat Sean Hernandez won their parties' respective primaries. Although the district leaned Democratic, Republicans notably poured a lot of money and fundraising efforts into the race. Polls showed a close race between Shaeffer and Hernandez, however Shaeffer won in an unexpectedly large margin, becoming the first Republican to hold the 4th district since 1975.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Sean Hernandez, state representative from the 8th district (2021-2027)
 * Joseph Williams, former state representative from the 13th district (2011-2023)
 * James Matthews, businessman
 * Greg Deeds, former Oregon Secretary of Health (2023-2024)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * James Shaeffer, Douglas County Sherriff (2019-2025)
 * Joshua McLellan, U.S. army veteran

New York's 20th
Incumbent Representative Paul Tonko resigned on December 3rd, 2025 due to health concerns. Democrat Stephanie Price was nominated by the Democratic party, while Republican Henry Graham won his party's nomination. The district had a partisan lean of D+9. Despite the state's liberal lean, polls showed a close race, with Graham spending 700,000 of his own money in campaigning. Ultimately, Price won by a narrow margin, holding onto the seat for Democrats.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Stephanie Price, state senator (2019-2025)
 * Paul Garcia, former Albany city commissioner (2021-2023)

Republican Primary
Nominee
 * Henry Graham, business

Alaska's At-Large
Incumbent Representative Mary Peltola did not run for a fourth term in office, instead successfully running for Governor of Alaska. Republicans Tara Sweeney and Jeff Devon, Democrat Charlie Maher and Independent George Lawrence all qualified for the ranked-choice voting based general election in November. As Alaska was a reliably conservative state, this race was expected to be a solid Republican flip. polls showed Devon and Sweeney in a deadlocked race in early spring. However, Maher had a surge in polls during the fall and a great debate performance made the race seem close. Polls showed a deadlocked race between Sweeney and Maher. However, Sweeney ultimately won by a solid 9 points in the maximum round runoff.

Republicans Primary
Qualified to general Eliminated in Primary
 * Tara Sweeney, former Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs (2018-2021) and candidate for the house in 2021, 2022 and 2024
 * Jeff Devon, venture capitalist
 * Simon Barett, former state representative (2013-2017)
 * Jay Archord, former mayor of Bethel (2019-2024)

Democratic Primary
Qualified into general'
 * Charlie Maher, former U.S. attorney for the district of Alaska (2022-2025), former state senator (2015-2022) and businessman