CONTINGENCY 2040 United States Presidential Election

The 2040 United States presidential election was the 64th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 6th, 2040. The Republican ticket of New York Senator Mike Lawler and Arizona Governor Elijah Crane defeated the Democratic ticket of Incumbent President Jon Ossoff and Vice-President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the American Patriotic ticket of media mogul and former Vice-Presidential nominee Tucker Carlson and Florida Senator Donald Trump Jr. The election took place amid a recession and the continuing Second Russian Civil War. The election also began a political realignment that would cause the beginning of the Eighth Party System.

Senator Lawler had little opposition in the Republican primaries, sweeping every state. President Ossoff endured a tough primary challenge in the Democratic primaries and only narrowly won renomination due to the recession. Tucker Carlson also easily won the APP nomination.

The election was mired by a variety of issues; mainly the economic recession that began during the latter part of 2039. The recession was the largest since the Great Recession of 2008 and led to the collapse of President Ossoff's popularity. Along with the recession the People's Republic of China formally became recognized as the worlds largest economy. However Ossoff had many bipartisan legislative achievements; most notably the American Revitalization Act which greatly expanded the nation's infrastructure and funded new projects which would end up in the 2040 introduction of the American Bullet Train system. Protests also gripped the nation after the recession began due to the governments perceived inaction and led to further economic decline.

Lawler ultimately won a majority in the electoral college, winning 280 electoral votes. Key to Lawler's victory were narrow wins in the Rust Belt, Georgia, and Arizona. Lawler was the first Republican to win a presidential election outright since former President Donald Trump's victory in 2016 and the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. Ossoff won 218 electoral votes, a surprising margin considering his disastrous approval ratings before the election. Carlson won 43 electoral votes and won the largest popular vote victory for the APP since Donald Trump's candidacy in 2024. Key to the revitalization of the party was Carlson's running mate, Donald Trump Jr. Due to his selection the APP avoided collapse and almost deadlocked the electoral college for the second time in its history.

After the election Ossoff conceded while Carlson used his media platform to try and convince the people of the election being rigged. On January 6, 2041 after a minor rally of Carlson and Ossoff supporters outside the Capitol Lawler's victory was certified. On January 20, 2041 Lawler and Crane were inaugurated as President and Vice-President respectively, with Lawler beginning his term with strong Republican majorities in both houses of Congress. Most observers call his inauguration the end of the Second Progressive Era.