2030 United States Senate Elections (Pear's Future III)

The 2030 United States Senate Elections took place during President Ron Desantis' first term in office. It included the 33 seats in the class 1 Senate races and two special elections in Alaska and Iowa to complete the remainder of their Senators terms. Pundits predicted Republicans to keep their majority in the Senate, largley due to a poor map for Democrats. Despite this, Democrats made a net gain of 4 seats, increasing their Senate control from 43 to 47. Republicans lost 2 seats, decreasing their majority from 55 to 53. The two Independent Senators, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, both retired and were replaced by Democrats.

Heading into the elections, Republicans were favoured to keep their Senate majority. This was because most incumbent Republicans were in states that overwhelmingly voted for Ron Desantis. 11 of 12 Senate Seats with Republican incumbents were carried by Ron Desantis by double digits, making Democratic pickups really hard. Additionally, Democrats had to defend 5 Senate seats that voted for Ron Desantis as well, with two, Ohio and Montana having voted overwhelmingly for Desantis as well.

In spite of this, Democrats were able to defeat Republicans in 3 seats that had Republican incumbents. Democrats defeated Republicans in Iowa and Missouri, in which incumbents were appointed following the resignation of the previous elected Senators. Democrats also won the Senate seat in Florida, which was an open race as Senator Rick Scott had retired. The Democratic strength was linked to strong messaging and good candidate quality. Jeff Merkley, the Senate minority leader from Oregon, had visited and helped several Democratic candidates in competitive races.