2024 United States Presidential Election (Pear's Future III)

The 2024 United States Presidential Election occurred in November 2024. It saw a rematch between the Democratic ticket of incumbent President Joe Biden, running with incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican ticket of former President Donald Trump, running with Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. Trump became the first President to run for non-consecutive terms since Herbert Hoover. Biden was easily renominated for the Democratic primary, while Trump defeated a strong challenger in Florida Governor Ron Desantis for the Republican nomination, becoming the first Republican to be nominated for President three times since Richard Nixon, who was nominated in 1960, 1968 and 1972. His running mate, Marjorie Taylor Greene, became the first Republican woman nominated for Vice President since Sarah Palin in 2008.

Originally, the race was anticipated to be close, as Biden had a low approval rating throughout most of his first term. However, Trump ran a poor campaign that failed to appeal to moderate voters and continued to polarize former Republicans in suburban areas. As such, Biden was able to win in a larger margin than he did in 2016, winning the popular vote by 5 points and holding on to all the states he carried in 2020, as well as flipping the State of North Carolina. This was the first time North Carolina voted Democratic since Barack Obama won it in 2008.

Campaign
Trump attacked Biden for a weak economy and high gas prices, as well as the United States involvement in the Ukraine War. This proved to be effective early on, as Trump lead Biden narrowly in most polls taken in the Spring. However, by summer of 2024, the economy had started to recover, those attacks proved to be less effective and Biden surged in the polls. Despite this, Trump continued to hammer away at Biden for the economy, which was seen as a massive blunder in his campaign.

The Biden campaign, on the other hand, attacked Trump for his many scandals, as well as for the January 6th insurrection. Although the attacks were not incredibly strong with moderate voters, it raised Democratic turnout and was seen as a crucial part to winning the election. Biden also made sure to run a fairly moderate campaign, avoiding hard stances on key issues. This furthered portrayed his reputation as a 'safe' candidate. Biden was also able to highlight his accomplishments in office, allowing him to portray himself as a experienced and effective politician.

Age Controversy
A large part of Biden's criticism was his age. If elected, Biden would be 82 during his inauguration and 86 by the end of his term. This continued to be an issue when Biden fell off of stairs twice during the campaign; Once in Pittsburg during a rally and another time in Saint Paul during a campaign stop. A week after the Saint Paul accident, Trump held a rally in Mesa where he mocked Biden for being "a walking coffin", and saying "Don't worry, I won't attend President Harris' funeral". Just 2 weeks later however, Trump fell down a stage in Reno, and attacked Democratic voters on Twitter for making fun of him. The Biden campaign used this controversy to portray Trump as egotistical and hypocritical.

Despite Trump being the main target of the controversy, many were still concerned with Biden's age and many voters did not like his running mate, Kamala Harris. As such, this was seen as hindering Biden's campaign, causing him to lose a lot of support.

Presidential Debates
There were 2 organized Presidential Debates, one in October 14th, and the other in October 22nd. During the first debate, held in Milwaukee, Biden focused on Trump's many controversies and character flaws, whilst Trump focused on illegal immigration, crime and taxes. The debate was seen as pretty even, with a poll showing 34% of watchers agreeing that Biden won the debate, to 32% of watchers agreeing that Trump won.

In between the two debates, an organized Vice Presidential Debate between Greene and Harris was organized. This was the first time both major running mates were women, which made many feminist groups watch the debate, although mainly in support for women. The debate, held in Richmond, was largely viewed. Although both stumbled in the debate, with many calling Harris cocky and uneducated, she was seen as the winner, largely due to Greene's radical policies and disrespect. Many Republicans even denounced, and many called for her to withdraw as Trump's running mate.

The final Presidential debate, held in Las Vegas, was seen as a heavy win for Biden. Viewers saw Trump's performance similar to Greene's, as he used a great deal of ad hominem attacks to Biden, including insults to Hunter Biden. Trump even got several warnings from the commentator for his unprofessional use.

Polls
{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;" ! Poll source ! Date(s) administered ! Sample size ! Margin of error ! style="width:100px;"| Joe Biden (D) ! style="width:100px;"| Donald Trump (R) ! style="width:100px;"| Lincoln Chafee (L) ! Undecided
 * - style="vertical-align:bottom"
 * style="text-align:left;"|Fox news
 * April 3-9, 2023
 * 2,739 (LV)
 * ± 3.5%
 * 42%
 * 39%
 * 2%
 * 17%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Data for Progress (D)
 * April 8-15, 2023
 * 1,223 (LV)
 * ± 4.6%
 * 45%
 * 37%
 * 4%
 * 14%
 * style="text-align:left;"|The Trafalgar Group (R)
 * April 22-29, 2023
 * 2,038 (LV)
 * ± 2.5%
 * 41%
 * 41%
 * 6%
 * 12%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Echelon Insights
 * May 15th, 2023
 * 2,138 (LV)
 * ± 3.4%
 * 37%
 * 32%
 * 5%
 * 26%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Insider Advantage (R)
 * May 29th, 2023
 * 2,388 (LV)
 * ± 2.2%
 * 39%
 * 35%
 * 6%
 * 20%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Data for Progress (D)
 * June 5th, 2023
 * 3,098 (LV)
 * ± 4.7%
 * 49%
 * 34%
 * 8%
 * 8%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Suffolk University
 * June 23rd, 2023
 * 7,432 (LV)
 * ± 3.2%
 * 42%
 * 41%
 * 7%
 * 10%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Fox news
 * June 22-30, 2023
 * 4,531 (LV)
 * ± 4.1%
 * 41%
 * 44%
 * 15%
 * style="text-align:left;"|The Trafalger Group (R)
 * July 1-2, 2023
 * 2,104 (LV)
 * ± 3.9%
 * 40%
 * 45%
 * 1%
 * 14%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Harvard and Harris
 * July 12-21, 2023
 * 3,678 (LV)
 * ± 3.9%
 * 42%
 * 43%
 * 3%
 * 17%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College
 * July 24-31, 2023
 * 9,888 (LV)
 * ± 2.1%
 * 40%
 * 42%
 * 4%
 * 14%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Data for Progress (D)
 * August 5th, 2023
 * 1,312 (LV)
 * ± 4.6%
 * 41%
 * 30%
 * 9%
 * 20%
 * style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|Rasmussen Reports
 * August 9-21, 2023
 * 3,492 (LV)
 * ± 3.4%
 * 40%
 * 40%
 * 6%
 * 14%
 * August 21-28
 * 2,312
 * ± 3.5%
 * 41%
 * 39%
 * 5%
 * 15%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Suffolk University
 * September 5-11, 2023
 * 6,942 (LV)
 * ± 3.7%
 * 40%
 * 41%
 * 6%
 * 13%
 * style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"| Echelon Insights
 * September 9-16, 2023
 * 8,731 (LV)
 * ± 3.7%
 * 39%
 * 41%
 * 4%
 * 16%
 * September 16-23, 2023
 * 7,644 (LV)
 * ± 2.1%
 * 42%
 * 41%
 * 4%
 * 13%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Insider Advantage (R)
 * October 12-21, 2023
 * 4,766 (LV)
 * ± 4.1%
 * 39%
 * 42%
 * 3%
 * 14%
 * style="text-align:left;"|The Trafalger Group (R)
 * October 21-28, 2023
 * 3,143 (LV)
 * ± 3.9%
 * 38%
 * 42%
 * 5%
 * 15%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Fox news
 * October 21-28, 2023
 * 2,447 (LV)
 * ± 3.8%
 * 40%
 * 41%
 * 6%
 * 13%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Rasmussen Reports
 * November 4-9, 2023
 * 4,531 (LV)
 * ± 4.8%
 * 39%
 * 40%
 * 5%
 * 16%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Wall Street Journal
 * November 22-30, 2023
 * 5,631 (LV)
 * ± 3.3%
 * 40%
 * 45%
 * 3%
 * 12%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Data for Progress (D)
 * December 29-31, 2023
 * 2,321 (LV)
 * ± 4.3%
 * 41%
 * 42%
 * 6%
 * 11%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Suffolk University
 * January 3-15, 2024
 * 12,388 (LV)
 * ± 1.3%
 * 40%
 * 43%
 * 5%
 * 13%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Insider Advantage (R)
 * February 22-26, 2024
 * 2,748 (LV)
 * ± 4.4%
 * 42%
 * 44%
 * 4%
 * 10%
 * style="text-align:left;"|GS Strategy Group (L)
 * March 11-15, 2024
 * 2,748 (LV)
 * ± 3.2%
 * 36%
 * 37%
 * 14%
 * 13%
 * style="text-align:left;"|The Trafalger Group (R)
 * April 23-29, 2024
 * 2,748 (LV)
 * ± 4.4%
 * 38%
 * 45%
 * 7%
 * 10%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Echelon Insights
 * May 30-31, 2024
 * 3,298 (LV)
 * ± 3.4%
 * 39%
 * 43%
 * 8%
 * 10%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Data for Progress (D)
 * June 20-25, 2024
 * 3,398 (LV)
 * ± 3.4%
 * 42%
 * 40%
 * 9%
 * 9%
 * style="text-align:left;"rowspan="2"|Emerson College
 * June 25-30, 2024
 * 4,731 (LV)
 * ± 4.1%
 * 44%
 * 42%
 * 8%
 * 8%
 * July 6-17, 2024
 * 5,877 (LV)
 * ± 2.3%
 * 43%
 * 41%
 * 8%
 * 8%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Suffolk University
 * July 25-29, 2024
 * 8,345 (LV)
 * ± 3.3%
 * 41%
 * 41%
 * 10%
 * 8%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Fox news
 * August 2-8, 2024
 * 3,049 (LV)
 * ± 4.9%
 * 43%
 * 41%
 * 5%
 * 11%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Insider Advantage (R)
 * August 21-28, 2024
 * 5,932 (LV)
 * ± 3.2%
 * 43%
 * 44%
 * 6%
 * 7%
 * style="text-align:left;"|McLaughlin & Associates
 * September 1-5, 2024
 * 3,594 (LV)
 * ± 3.8%
 * 45%
 * 44%
 * 5%
 * 6%
 * style="text-align:left;"|The Trafalgar Group (R)
 * September 15-21, 2024
 * 2,513 (LV)
 * ± 3.8%
 * 42%
 * 46%
 * 3%
 * 9%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Wall Street Journal
 * September 25-29, 2024
 * 4,219 (LV)
 * ± 4.2%
 * 45%
 * 44%
 * 4%
 * 7%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Echelon Insights
 * September 27-30, 2024
 * 5,345 (LV)
 * ± 3.4%
 * 46%
 * 42%
 * 6%
 * 6%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Harvard and Harris
 * October 1-9, 2024
 * 14,889 (LV)
 * ± 2.2%
 * 45%
 * 40%
 * 7%
 * 8%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Data for Progress (D)
 * October 14-21, 2024
 * 7,532 (LV)
 * ± 3.2%
 * 49%
 * 40%
 * 6%
 * 5%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Fox News
 * October 22-26, 2024
 * 7,532 (LV)
 * ± 3.5%
 * 47%
 * 41%
 * 4%
 * 8%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Insider Advantage (R)
 * October 27-31, 2024
 * 6,545 (LV)
 * ± 3.6%
 * 45%
 * 46%
 * 5%
 * 4%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Suffolk University
 * November 1-2, 2024
 * 3,457 (LV)
 * ± 4.2%
 * 48%
 * 42%
 * 7%
 * 3%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Harvard and Harris
 * October 1-9, 2024
 * 14,889 (LV)
 * ± 2.2%
 * 45%
 * 40%
 * 7%
 * 8%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Data for Progress (D)
 * October 14-21, 2024
 * 7,532 (LV)
 * ± 3.2%
 * 49%
 * 40%
 * 6%
 * 5%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Fox News
 * October 22-26, 2024
 * 7,532 (LV)
 * ± 3.5%
 * 47%
 * 41%
 * 4%
 * 8%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Insider Advantage (R)
 * October 27-31, 2024
 * 6,545 (LV)
 * ± 3.6%
 * 45%
 * 46%
 * 5%
 * 4%
 * style="text-align:left;"|Suffolk University
 * November 1-2, 2024
 * 3,457 (LV)
 * ± 4.2%
 * 48%
 * 42%
 * 7%
 * 3%
 * 48%
 * 42%
 * 7%
 * 3%