2026 United States House of Representatives Elections (Pear's Future III)

The 2026 House of Representatives Elections elected occurred in the middle of President Joe Biden's second term. As Biden's approval ratings have dropped, Republicans were expected to do well in the elections. Republicans, under speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, were able to make a net-gain of 16 seats, having 237 seats at the beginning of the next congress. Democrats, under House minority leader Hakeem Jefferies dropped their seat to total to just 198 seats. Court ordered redistricting changed the congressional maps in Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina in this election.

In the 2027 Speaker of the House elections, McCarthy once again had difficulties holding onto his position as Speaker of the House due to retaliation from the House freedom caucus. He was able to receive just 218 votes, the minimum amount to be elected speaker. Most of the other Republicans voted for Ohio congressman Jim Jordan. McCarthy pledged to step down as leader in March of 2028, and a special speaker election was held in which Jordan was elected speaker.

Oregon's 4th
Incumbent Representative Val Hoyle resigned on February 2nd, 2025, to become the U.S. Ambassador to Germany. Democrat Tina Kotek scheduled an election in May 2025 to replace her. Republican James Shaeffer and Democrat Sean Hernandez won their parties' respective primaries. Although the district leaned Democratic, Republicans notably poured a lot of money and fundraising efforts into the race. Polls showed a close race between Shaeffer and Hernandez, however Shaeffer won in an unexpectedly large margin, becoming the first Republican to hold the 4th district since 1975.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Sean Hernandez, state representative from the 8th district (2021-2027)
 * Joseph Williams, former state representative from the 13th district (2011-2023)
 * James Matthews, businessman
 * Greg Deeds, former Oregon Secretary of Health (2023-2024)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * James Shaeffer, Douglas County Sherriff (2019-2025)
 * Joshua McLellan, U.S. army veteran

New York's 20th
Incumbent Representative Paul Tonko resigned on December 3rd, 2025 due to health concerns. Democrat Stephanie Price was nominated by the Democratic party, while Republican Henry Graham won his party's nomination. The district had a partisan lean of D+9. Despite the state's liberal lean, polls showed a close race, with Graham spending 700,000 of his own money in campaigning. Ultimately, Price won by a narrow margin, holding onto the seat for Democrats.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Stephanie Price, state senator (2019-2025)
 * Paul Garcia, former Albany city commissioner (2021-2023)

Republican Primary
Nominee
 * Henry Graham, business

Alaska's At-Large
Incumbent Representative Mary Peltola did not run for a fourth term in office, instead successfully running for Governor of Alaska. Republicans Tara Sweeney and Jeff Devon, Democrat Charlie Maher and Independent George Lawrence all qualified for the ranked-choice voting based general election in November. As Alaska was a reliably conservative state, this race was expected to be a solid Republican flip. polls showed Devon and Sweeney in a deadlocked race in early spring. However, Maher had a surge in polls during the fall and a great debate performance made the race seem close. Polls showed a deadlocked race between Sweeney and Maher. However, Sweeney ultimately won by a solid 9 points in the maximum round runoff.

Republicans Primary
Qualified to general Eliminated in Primary
 * Tara Sweeney, former Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs (2018-2021) and candidate for the house in 2021, 2022 and 2024
 * Jeff Devon, venture capitalist
 * Simon Barett, former state representative (2013-2017)
 * Jay Archord, former mayor of Bethel (2019-2024)

Democratic Primary
Qualified into general Eliminated in Primary Independents Eliminated in Primary
 * Charlie Maher, former U.S. attorney for the district of Alaska (2022-2025), former state senator (2015-2022) and businessman
 * Greg Dale, retired pastor
 * George Lawrence, former Republican state senator (2017-2019)
 * Louis Warren, businessman

Colorado's 3rd
Incumbent Representative Lauren Boebert, first elected in 2020, ran for re-election to a fourth full term. Boebert lost her parties' nomination to Steve Adams in the Republican primary. Adams faced Democrat Caleb Dayton, a former state senator who lead Adams consistently in fundraising. Altough this district has gotten more Democratic, Adams ran as a moderate who differed from the far-right incumbent Boebert which appealed to many moderate voters, allowing him to win a larger margin than expected.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Steve Adams, state senator (2019-2027)
 * Lauren Boebert, incumbent U.S. Representative (2021-2027)
 * Jay Thorton, news anchor and former vice-chair of the Colorado Republican Party (2023-2026)

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Caleb Dayton, former state senator (2015-2023)
 * Adam Crawley, former state representative (1995-2025)

Colorado's 8th
Incumbent Representative Yadira Caraveo decided to run for Governor instead of running for re-election. Republicans nominated Christina Hunt, the former Chair of the Colorado Republican part, while Democrats nominated state representative Frank Kander. The race was expected to be close as Kander, a popular moderate, was seen as a rising star in the Democratic party. However, Hunt was able to win, continuing the trend nationwide in a year which Republicans did well.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Frank Kander, state senator (2015-2031)
 * George Holt, former member of the Colorado school board (2023-2028)
 * Henry Gallagher, state representative (2023-2027)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Christina Hunt, chair of the Colorado Republican party (2024-2025), candidate for state house in 2024
 * Kevin Krawn, state senator (2007-2027)
 * Lori Saine, former state representative and nominee for this district in 2024

Connecticut's 5th
Incumbent Representative Jahana Hayes did not run for re-election, instead successfully running for Governor of Connecticut. Democrat Richard Wyman, the mayor of Waterbury, won his parties nomination to succeed her. Republicans nominated state senator Thomas Crowder. The race was one of the races Republicans aimed to flip, with polls showing a close race. Ultimately, Crowder was able to become the first Republican to win a congressional election in Connecticut since 2006.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Richard Wyman, mayor of Waterbury
 * Randall Harrison, state senator (2023-2027)
 * Ron Graves, attorney
 * Mike Sheriff, businessman
 * George Swall, U.S. army veteran

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Thomas Crowder, former state senator (2013-2025) and candidate for this seat in 2024
 * Bob Livley, small business owner

Maine's 2nd
Incumbent Representative Jared Golden successfully ran for Governor of Maine. Republican Elliot DuPierre, a prominent Lewiston businessman who had been a registered independent before this election, won his parties nomination and defeated Democratic Bob Roth by a large margin to win the election. This was the first time Republicans had won the seat since 2016.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Bob Roth, former staffer to Governor Janet Mills

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Elliot DuPierre, businessman
 * Eric Blake, state senator (2019-2023)
 * Steve Mills, former state representative (2015-2021)
 * Trey Barnette, former navy seal
 * Henry Case, author

Michigan's 3rd
The 3rd district is based in western Michigan, and includes Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and parts of Ottawa County. The incumbent is Hillary Scholten ran for re-election. The district has a partisan lean of D+3 and was carried by President Joe Biden by 4 points in 2024. Scholten, a popular moderate, narrowly defeated Republican Mark Huizenga in a rematch to win re-election.

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Hilary Scholten, incumbent representative

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Mark Huizenga, former state senator and nominee for this district in 2024
 * George Crane, former U.S. marine

Michigan's 7th
The 7th district is based around the Lansing–East Lansing metropolitan area, but also includes Livingston County and a small part of Oakland County. The incumbent is Ruth Johnson, who was elected with 52 percent of the vote in 2024. The district has a partisan lean of R+2, but was carried by Joe Biden by a margin of 2.6 percent. Johnson faced a challenge from Democrat Ralph Holland, the Oakland County clerk. The district was one of the districts targeted by Democrats. However, Johnson won re-election by a larger than expected margin.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Ruth Johnson, incumbent representative
 * Bill Franks, former Lansing district judge

Democratic Primary
Nominee
 * Ralph Holland, Oakland county clerk

New Hampshire's 1st
The 1st district is based in southeastern New Hampshire, and includes Greater Manchester, the Seacoast and the Lakes Region. The incumbent is Democrat Chris Pappas, who was re-elected with 52 percent of the vote in 2024. Pappas retired to unsuccessfully run for Governor of New Hampshire. Republican Chris Garrett faced Democrat Jon Joyce in a close and competitive election.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Chris Garrett, professor at Dartmouth university
 * Pat Steele, ironworker
 * Seth Williams, mayor of Conway
 * Bernice Girard, author

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Jon Joyce, New Hampshire executive councilor (2023-2027)
 * Henry London, New Hampshire executive councilor (2019-2027)

New Jersey's 7th
The 7th District is based in Northwestern New Jersey, with partisan lean of R+4. The incumbent is Republican Thomas Kean, who won re-election to a second term with 52% of the vote. Kean ran for re-election, facing Democratic challenger Elizabeth Cooper.

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Thomas Kean Jr., incumbent representative
 * Henry Lopez, pastor and anti-gay marriage activist

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Elizabeth Cooper, attorney
 * Steven Smith, state senator
 * Clarke Goodwin, businessman

New York's 17th
The 17th district is based in the Lower Hudson Valley, including all of Rockland and Putnam Counties, northern Westchester County, and a small part of Dutchess County. The district was significantly altered due to redistricting, now including all of northern Westchester and adding Putnam County and a small part of Dutchess County. The district has a PVI of D+4 and voted for Joe Biden by 12 points in 2020. The incumbent is Mondaire Jones, who was elected with 50% of the vote in 2024, defeating incumbent Republican representative Mike Lawler, who seeked a rematch against Jones.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Mondaire Jones, incumbent Representative
 * Charles Purdue, state assemblyman (2025-2027)

Republican Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Mike Lawler, former Representative from the 17th District (2023-2025)
 * Greg Thorton, state assemblyman (2023-2027)

New York's 18th
The 18th district is based in the mid Hudson Valley, including all of Orange County and most of Dutchess and Ulster Counties. The seat was modestly altered due to redistricting, losing all of Putnam County and parts of Westchester County to the 17th district while picking up the portions of Dutchess and Ulster Counties formerly in the 19th district. The district has a PVI of D+4 and voted for Joe Biden by 10 points in 2024. The incumbent is Democrat Pat Ryan, who was re-elected with 53% of the vote in 2024. Ryan ran for re-election, facing Republican Shannon Waters. Although Lee Zeldin carried this district by 6 points in the Governors election, Ryan narrowly won re-election.

Democratic Primary
Nominee Eliminated in Primary
 * Pat Ryan, incumbent U.S. Representative
 * Sean Patrick Maloney, former Representative from the 18th District (2013-2023)